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Mixed
Market With The Dow Higher NASDAQ And Broader Market Lower
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Apple [AAPL]
earnings miss set the stock market at odds, with the DJIA opening and moving
higher while tech and the NASDAQ moves lower- broader market flat to negative.
It's all about QE/ stimulus. The question now is not whether there will be
a QE/ stimulus, but rather, when. Some to most are now expecting QE, in
some form, next week- God forbid we don't see it.
Split market most of the day with the Dow leading the broader market and tech
back to positive territory. With less than a half-hour to go, the Dow
falls back giving up triple digit gain; broader market and tech fall back
into negative territory.
Worry
Worry Worry- Uncertainty Over Everything Takes Stocks Down
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
More Europe news for markets to ponder, sets the stage for the U.S. to a flat
negative start. Once the news settles down and Europe markets close , U.S.
equity markets may have a chance of spring higher in late morning afternoon
trade.
U.S. equity market revisits yesterdays lows. With all the bad news and
very little good news, stocks move lower, looking for some sort of support.
There is too much wrong everywhere for stocks to climb the wall of worry.
This time, may be different.
With all the turmoil in Europe, China GDP slowing, major problems in the U.S.,
it's probably good news that we aren't headed for depression? Really!
Lots of stuff going on now in the U.S. is similar to a depression.
If it weren't enough for markets to worry about the global problems, we have
cities in California going bankrupt, we probably will see another nasty GDP and
jobs report; we'll be lucky to see any job growth at all last month-
kidding- and if the unemployment rate kicks up, it could mean much worse
prognosis for the U.S. economy.
With all the tax hikes set for next year and the so called deficit-cliff
looming, it could shut down the economy altogether. The good news, housing
market appears to be picking up. That's about it. There is way to
much uncertainty out there- did I mention the elections! We could be
setting the equity market up for a very hard fall- soon.
Stocks close well off the low but still mired in negative territory. It's
not likely to get any better tomorrow because of
Apple earnings
this evening that major disappoints. But the good news is the Fed has
tons of reasons to QE next week.
Fear is back,
again, on Spain and Euro systemic problems
Monday, July 23, 2012
Global markets selling off send the U.S. futures tumbling, indicating a negative
start for the U.S. stock market Monday.
Models had indicated a good environment for the U.S. stock market but fear over
Spain and Europe as well as the global economic condition and U.S.'s own deficit
problem has changed sentiment; by the noon hour U.S. equity market should
have priced in all the bad news; see where stocks can go in the afternoon
session.
Euro Area -Spain and Greece- news took U.S. stocks for a ride Monday. Little
has changed except the news but traders and investors saw fit to sell in the
morning and rebuild in the afternoon. The major indexes are still in
negative territory but well off the lows of the morning. Models now show a
slight chance of the market moving higher from pre close levels.
Stocks Close Lower But
Positioned For A Monday Good Start, Models Show
Friday, July 20, 2012
Asia Pacific and European equity markets moved lower Friday with the U.S.
following suit. Good earnings season, thus far, and less bad news has seen
markets rallying this week. Stocks have moved lower Friday morning as it
appears consolidation has set in. Major indexes are off by less than 3/4
percent in late morning trading.
Stocks go negative Friday blamed on the Spain 10-year yield, but stocks have
been trading up and down with pauses during concurrent moves higher.
Models see another run higher Monday pending news that could derail the upside
move. The forecast bias continues at negative; the bias is a
forecast bias that indicates how close the models are to downgrading the long
term forecast to neutral from its current position of caution.
Stocks All Over The Place
Trying To Be Positive Despite Terrible Jobs Data
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Global stock markets rally Thursday setting the stage for the U.S. stock market
to rally as well. With lots of bad news maybe priced in, stocks look
attractive as an investment, so say some analysts.
Initial jobless claims disappointed -chart- jumping 34,000
last week, possibly indicating that the previous week drop to be an
outlier in the data. Not good news for those looking for jobs but good
news to traders as QE3 appears to be that much closer, some say.
Stocks Bounce From Negative
Territory With Nearly All Bad News Priced In
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
U.S. stock market opened in negative territory, shook off pre market trades,
jumped into positive territory early Wednesday ahead of the Beige Book and day
two of Bernanke testimony.
Traders anticipate QE3 by the next FOMC meeting; economic data continues
to support the idea of additional help from the Fed; traders run stocks
up, hold the days gain going into the close.
Market Has A
Quick Tantrum, No QE, Stocks Move Positive
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
All eyes will be on the Hill today as Fed Chief testifies on the economy;
stocks are setting up for a flat start awaiting news or hint of QE3 or some sort
of stimulus.
IMF sees global growth slowing; says being hindered by Euro Area debt
crisis and U.S. planned tax hikes in 2013; plan termination of the Bush
tax cut.
Bernanke testifies says [paraphrase] growth in U.S. slowing and troublesome;
sees Euro Area crisis and U.S. fiscal policy a major hindrance to economic
recovery.
U.S. stock market sees all the problems but no fix at hand and no stimulus,
sends stocks down after good start Tuesday.
Tantrum over- lets get it on, says traders. Stocks run-up after a quick
pouting episode. With less than a half-hour to go, stocks are up in
positive territory near 1/2 percent.
New Week Same Problems; Global Growth Slowdown And Scuffle In Strait Of Hormuz
Monday, July 16, 2012
New week same old problems with earnings to drive bias. U.S. equity market
looks to open lower Monday with retail sales data having little effect on
futures.
No where to go for equities as retail sales data keeps buyers on the sidelines.
Going to the close, the major indexes show near 1/3 percent loss on the session.
More earning after the close that could either worsen markets or could uphold
Fridays rally.
The IMF warned today that further global slowdown if emerging markets continues
to slow; Europe debt crisis and the U.S. policy to increase taxes in 2013
could further slow global growth. The IMF cut 2012 and 2013 GDP to 3.5 and
3.9 for 2012 and 2013.
Triple Digit Loss For The Dow Turned Higher Trying For The Unchanged Line
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Global markets sell off Thursday while U.S. starts out lower even though good
data preceded the open Thursday.
Markets go lower Thursday as fear of global economic slowdown and all the other
troubles befalling the globe [economy] continues to worry markets.
The good news -if it holds up next week- jobless new claims move down 26,000
last week;
claims chart show that is good news for the jobs market
and the economy.
Barometer model data suggest that if Thursdays market ends negative, we could be
looking at 2 to 4 more weeks of mostly negative stock market action.
Further moves lower for the market is somewhat expected and data shows it could
last until fall.
Industrials breakthrough unchanged, reversing a triple-digit loss while the
broader market struggles in negative territory.
Stocks end lower again Thursday after a try to close in positive territory.
The Dow posted negative after slipping from positive territory as markets
prepare for bank earnings.
Traders Take A Wait And See
With Fed Minutes
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Futures point to a flat open as markets await more earnings reports.
Europe problems are still there just in the background for now. U.S. stock
market performance for Wednesday is expected to be muted until Fed minutes are
release later today.
Federal Reserve FOMC minutes are important because the inner workings of the
Fed's June meeting could give clue to next policy move- QE3.
The Dow drops triple digits after news that there is no QE3 in the immediate
future. The bad news for traders, no QE3 now, the good news, they are
talking about it- just have to wait till things get real real bad. Stocks
off the lows but still holding negative territory.
Stocks Try
For Positive But Gave Up To Earrings Pressure
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Alcoa's slight beat sees U.S. stock market setting up for a flat open as
earnings becomes more of a focus as well as Europe's debt crisis.
Stocks in the U.S. opened positive but got defensive, dropping into negative
territory, late morning Tuesday. The Dow hanging onto a slight gain while
the broader market was flat- tech shares saw slight loss.
Market Barometer models continue to indicate a neutral short-term with a
negative bias. Long-term continues at caution.
If Alcoa's slight earnings beat is best case, traders pocket some gains
anticipating a subdued earnings season. Stock continue making new session
lows heading for the close Tuesday.
Stocks Drop
Into Negative Territory As Traders Await Alcoa
Monday, July 9, 2012
U.S. equity market setting up for a neutral open as traders and investors gear
up for earnings with Alcoa after the close. Asia Pacific stock markets
ended Monday down while European stocks are mostly lower, midday local.
Stocks immediately drop into negative territory Monday as earnings season gets
underway with traders and investors expecting a dismal earnings season with a
guarded outlook/ forecasts.
Stocks bounce around the lows of the day probing for direction. After the
close, Alcoa reports results and will give a forecast- outlook for the remainder
of year and may give the markets direction.
Jobs
Report Sends The Dow To Triple Digit Loss
Friday, July 6, 2012
A disappointing jobs report sends stocks lower Friday. 80,000 jobs created
in June, a very anemic jobs number sent the Dow Jones Average to triple digit
loss by midmorning.
The report wasn't so bad that the Fed would have to act with another round of
easing or stimulus, so traders base their trades on the fact that the economy
will grow but at an anemic rate, but not so bad that additions help from the
Government can be expected.
Stocks take a dive Friday as the jobs report disappoints but appear not bad
enough for the Fed to step in with QE. Off the low of the session, the Dow
still sporting triple digit loss while the broader market tries to hold the loss
to one percent.
Market Hangs Tough On Surprise Jobs-Data And Rate-Cuts, Keeps Markets Uncertain
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Stocks bounced out of negative territory Tuesday as traders and investors
repositioned for Thursday and Fridays data. Surprise --kind of
expected-- rate cut by China and the ECB did little for Thursdays open;
jobs data --ADP and jobless new claims-- did little for U.S. equity
market in the early going Thursday.
ADP reported 176,000 new private jobs in June while the Government reported a
drop in jobless initial claims;
jobless initial claims chart show negative trend
developing in the U.S. jobs market.
U.S. equity market got off to a negative start Thursday after rate-cut news and
jobs data. Traders and investors worry over where the economy is headed in
the U.S.. Earnings season next week could answer some of the economic
puzzle with how companies have done in the recent quarter and what they see for
the future- outlook.
With less than an hour to go the major indexes show mixed results as traders and
investors position for the payroll unemployment report. Expectations are
high for a good number that could major disappoint if less than hoped for
results are seen. Jobs creation number and unemployment rate data could
make or break the market tomorrow.
Monday, July 2, 2012
Monday is setting up for a flat open as pre market trading gets underway on this
shortened week; Tuesday's regular session markets will close early while
all markets in the U.S. will be closed Wednesday for Independence Day holiday.
Stocks end mixed Monday on manufacturing data. ISM data showed factory
output contracting slightly in June. Dow and NASDAQ go their separate ways
while the broader market ended flat.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Asia Pacific and European stock markets rally Friday as EU summit leaders
finally put together a shoring up plan for banks.
Participant in the summit meeting late Thursday early Friday agreed upon using
the EU Stability fund reserves to lend directly to banks providing need
liquidity. U.S. rallies along with the global community Friday on the
news.
Stocks rally to the close Friday adding 2 to 3 percent; Dow up 2.2
percent, the S&P 500 up 2.5 percent, and the NASDAQ posted a 3 percent gain.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Stocks get a good start Wednesday, a day ahead of uncertainty to the
end-of-the-week and weekend. Stock indexes top out, trend sideways, midday
Wednesday, as traders decide how to reposition for GDP and the EU summit.
A misjudged GDP number could create panic in the market, sending stocks lower
quickly, especially if the jobless initial claims number is soft- a surprise
good GDP could cause pause in stocks as markets also eye the summit.
The EU summit starts Thursday and God knows what will come of it. Most
likely nothing as these summits do not produce anything that could build global
confidence. It appears that the entire EU wants Germany to support them
all- good luck with that as the countries needing funds think they are owed it
and don't want to give anything in return. Any good news from the summit
could cause little substantial change in the markets; bad could cause much
more selling.
U.S. stocks rally to the close Wednesday with the major indexes showing near one
percent gain. Could be a very busy session tomorrow and Friday with GDP,
the summit, and end of month & quarter trading.
Stocks Advance After Europe's Close
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
U.S. equity market got off to a slow neutral start Tuesday. Traders await
data and the EU summit. Could see a pop higher later in the week as Shorts
may cover ahead of weekend when summit news would catch traders unable to
respond.
Stocks advance after Europe stock markets post mixed results Tuesday.
Either Shorts are covering, in an orderly manner, or there are some real brave
traders out there pushing stocks up ahead of all kinds of uncertainty.
Stocks Sell Off As Markets See Little Resolution From The EU Summit
Monday, June 25, 2012
Banks got the expected downgrade Thursday as markets sold off ahead of the
news on just about every bit of bad news imaginable. Stocks do rebound somewhat
Friday morning in zigzag fashion.
Stocks held onto gains Friday recovering some of Thursdays sell off. But
this week
could be interesting as traders will want to see this positive ness continue,
sending the major indexes even higher, closing out the quarter.
Monday futures show a decisive negative open set for at lease the morning
session as U.S. waits for Europe markets to close; Europe under pressure
as little seems to be accomplished in trying to save the Euro.
There is lots of doubt about the EU summit as global stock markets sell off
Monday. What could be the last meaningful meeting of the Euro Area, that
could eventually see Europe plunge further into crisis mode, as the contagion
appears to be ready to leap to others in the Euro and the rest of the globe in
some form or another.
The Dow lost 1.1
percent, the S&P 500 lost 1.6 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 2 percent.
Late Monday Moody's
ratings service downgrades 28 Spanish banks several notches according to their
website and news media centers.
Stocks Under Lots Of Pressure From Data, FOMC And Now Bank Downgrades
Thursday, June 21, 2012
The Fed sets the stage for a flat market Thursday while economic data sends
stocks lower throughout the morning session.
The FOMC left rates unchanged as expected. Extended Twist, as expected.
The FOMC appears to be hunkering down for the year. Unless things get
really bad it appears the Fed will stay on the sidelines until next year as most
believe the Fed is all out of things to do except stimulate through words.
Jobless initial claims saw a decrease last week but
charts indicate a troubled jobs market that
could last for some time. The chart shows a new upward trend developing
that could indicate an increase in layoffs and a stagnate new jobs creation
market.
Media gets wind of Moody's downgrade of big banks after the close as buyers step
aside allow selling to take stocks into freefall Thursday afternoon.
Orderly sell off Thursday with the Dow Jones down by 2 percent, the NASDAQ
posted a 2.4 percent loss, and the S&P 500 lost 2.2 percent. Today's
orderly sell off brought to you by FEAR. More to come tomorrow, is likely.
Moody's announced rating action on several European and North American banks.
Asia Pacific markets are several hours away to first respond on the news;
U.S. already responded by selling off on that plus lots of other issues.
Stocks Rally Ahead Of The
Fed- Short Term Forecast Goes To Neutral
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
With an eye on Europe, traders and investors go into Fed watch. Markets
wait to see if the central bank might let slip a hint or two on any policy
change and their latest take on the economy.
Tuesday sees stocks rise one percent midday on hope that the central banks will
act in unison to stem the ailing global economy and the debt crisis in Europe
and in the U.S.
Stocks rally Tuesday as traders and investors looking to the Fed tomorrow to
help the economy during the global slowdown. Traders fear of Europe
contagion eases slightly Tuesday while most markets await the Fed FOMC
announcement and the Bernanke press conference. Stimulus of some sort, or at
least a hint of one, is expected tomorrow when the FOMC ends its two day policy
meeting.
The pre close model run changed the BLI, the short term forecast, to neutral.
Model data suggest that the erratic news out of Europe along with hopes for
intervention by the Fed to the economy, like stimulus or Twist extension, is
enough for markets to rally or sell off. Models show it is more likely for
stocks to continue higher but selling off cannot be ruled out.
Europe News Is Quiet Monday
After Greek Election Now It's Onto QE Or Not QE
Monday, June 18, 2012
With the Greek elections over but not the responsibility for setting up a Greek
government, stocks around the global rallied early Monday while the U.S., last
to react to the news, set up for a negative start. Spain and Italy
retaking center stage as bond yields are quickly making it difficult to borrow
money.
Stocks meander Monday not overly positive or negative with the Greek outcome.
While the Greek story is somewhat halted today, Spain and Italy are fast
becoming the new European story to watch after markets deal with the FOMC
meeting and a possible quantitative easing in some form.
If the Fed doesn't do things exactly as markets are waiting on it could
cause turmoil or elation. Chances of QE3 are very limited but an extension
to the Twist, most experts have said, is what the Fed could do at this weeks
meeting.
The short-term forecast stands at negative while the long-term forecast
indicates caution.
Shorts Covered Friday And Options Expiration Week Comes To An End Ahead Of The
Greek Election
Friday, June 15, 2012
After Thursdays rally on news of a coordinated bank efforts by the central
banks, stocks are setting up for a Friday positive open; also Friday ends
options expirations which could cause some volatility.
With Greek elections, this weekend, it would appear markets are positioned for
whatever the vote turns out to be. Any additional upside today could be
Shorts covering if they haven't already. Markets are expected to be flat
as positioning should be mostly over with by the open, barring new news.
Either traders and investors are real brave or Shorts covered Friday with the
averages gaining more than one percent. Options expiration this week may
have had some effect on the indexes but Shorts appear to have covered as this
weekend could bring more Gloom and Doom; it would be unlikely that a rally
could come about Monday based on anything that transpires in Europe this
weekend. But markets are very unpredictable- stay tuned.
U.S. Stocks Rallied Tuesday
After Europe Closed, Reclaiming Lost Ground
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
U.S. regains positive momentum after taking a quick dip into negative territory.
After Europe markets closed, U.S. equities take off back to positive territory
and then some. Of course Spain and Italy are still in focus but marketeers
try and focus on local stuff.
Traders and investors refocus to U.S. economics and jobs data; stocks
rally to the close with the Dow in triple digits.
With renewed hope of a fix in the Euro Area, which is unlikely, U.S. stocks
rallied to the close with the Dow Jones posting a 1.3 percent gain, while the
NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted a 1.2 percent gain.
U.S.
Posted A Negative End Monday On Spain Bailout- Italy Next?
Monday, June 11, 2012
Spain reported over the weekend having acquired a €100B bailout by the Euro Area
ministers. Asia Pacific and European stock markets rallied Monday while
the U.S. opened in rally mode but gave it back during the midmorning session.
U.S. major indexes reporting negative midmorning.
Bailout of Spain not a good reason for buyers to bid stocks higher. Stocks
looking to post negative results Monday taking back some of last weeks gain.
Traders have to be thinking who in the Euro Area is next- Italy is obvious and
this whole thing to replay again and again.
Oversold U.S. Stock Market,
China Rate-Cut, And Fed's Yellen kick Markets Higher- Test To Come
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Janet Yellen statement, last night in Boston, about additional stimulus has
inspired buyers and Short sellers Thursday. Futures ramp up early on the
back of yesterdays rally indicating more gains for at least the short run.
China's rate cut announcement and Bernanke on the Hill, for testimony, is a
major focus Thursday. Stocks in Europe get a boost showing positive as did
the U.S. opening-up in rally mode.
Jobless claims [chart] last week came in near
expectations- flat. Bernanke testimony added no more QE clues so stocks
hold rally looking for Friday to see if it can continue.
Stocks gave up late in Thursdays session with the NASDAQ sinking into negative
territory, while the Dow Jones Average managed to hold a gain, with the broader
market ending virtually unchanged. Fridays market will be important to see
if the rally can continue or if it resumes its downturn.
Less Bad News And An Oversold
Market Saw Stocks Rally- Can Bernanke keep It Going
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
No terrible news from Europe, mixed with an oversold stock market, sees equity
prices higher Wednesday morning.
Stocks maintain gains with markets around the globe sending equities higher in
an oversold market. With minutes to go, the U.S. major indexes show one to
two percent gain.
Stocks rallied Wednesday posting better than a two-percent gain on an oversold
market and no terrible news from Europe. Thursdays follow-through will be
key to any sustained short term rally; Chief Bernanke testifies Thursday
and could spark volatility one way or the other.
Bernanke testifies Thursday on the economy and what he says or doesn't say could
very well keep the rally going or sell it back down. The U.S. and Europe
will be all ears to his every word and inference.
Forecast Models See Possible
Base Building As Stocks Held Positive Territory
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
A directionless market for stocks as the major indexes bounce around the
unchanged line. Reports are that Spain has directly asked for bailout
money and the G7 will conduct an emergency meeting Tuesday to disuses Spain's
request and crisis matters in general. Markets are kind of looking for
global central banks to coordinate stimulus.
Market Barometer model data suggest Tuesdays hold of positive territory could be
used as base for a short-term rally. Any halfway decent news could spark
positive momentum.
Sentiment Remains Negative, Fear Of Europe Crisis And U.S. Slowing Economy
Continues To Drive Markets
Monday, June 4, 2012-
corrected 6/5/12
U.S. equity market took an early dip as markets try and discern what all the
events playing out could mean to prices. Greece and Spain exit fear and
its contagion as well as global recession fear, not to mention Iran nuke
situation and then you have the U.S. election/ debt issues; and it's easy
to see why markets have been tanking for weeks.
Stock prices bounce around Monday as traders and investors prepare for virtually
multiple unknowns; will the global economy suffer a recession; will
Greece and Spain remain in the Euro Area; will the U.S. get its financial
debt crisis in order; will the U.S. go for a double dip recession;
what is the Feds answer to a stagnate jobs picture.
Have you heard of the wall of worry. Markets love to climb it. The
only problem with this one is you need a boost up. The boost may not be
there yet. The wall is very high, higher maybe than ever before. So
don't necessarily wait for that to happen any time soon.
There could be (no one really knows) more downside left- maybe through the
summer months. Or, we could be ready to climb. This will be a very
interesting month as lots could and will happen. Stay tuned and watch the
forecast.
U.S. Stock Market Dives,
Probing For A Bottom
Friday, June 1, 2012
U.S. as well as global stock markets plunge on news that the U.S. jobs market
slowed more than had been expected; futures immediately sank and the sell
off began when the market opened.
Job creation increased a meager 69,000 in May with the unemployment-rate ticking
up to 8.2 percent. Global markets sank along with the U.S.. The big
fear now is global recession which gives concern for equity holders.
Midday Friday saw stock indexes moderately lower considering the ramifications
of the data- stocks could be down double the moderate 2 percent show by the
major indexes midday.
Stocks take a controlled dive Friday after the jobs report disappointed.
Controlled in the sense that after the initial plunge, stocks trended lower
looking for support. The Dow lost its gain for the year and the other
indices a close.
Short term forecast continues to indicate negative going forward. pops
higher can be expected but until some certainty returns or a capitulation
arrives, look for a downward slide, according to Market Barometer models.
Ignoring Data And Euro
Crisis, Stocks Recover Most Of Session Losses But Unable To Hold Positive Ground
Ahead Of Payroll Jobs Report
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Go away in May would have been a good choice if you were able to sell at a
profit- like on May 1. Stocks got off to the wrong food Thursday helped by
jobs data and GDP. Although stocks regain some traction during the lunch
hour the S&P 500 was still in a bad spot.
GDP for the first quarter, second estimate, was reported
by the Government at 1.9 percent, a drop from the previous reading of
2.2 percent.
Jobless new claims saw
an increase of 10,000 new applicants to the unemployed ranks, continuing to be
somewhat troublesome. See
chart of unemployment new claims sideways-channel,
a trend that could continue through the summer months.
Stocks didn't like those
data points or the ADP report. Had little effect on futures but stocks
fell sharply early with the Dow dropping into triple digit territory.
Stocks Succumb To Europe's
Debt Crisis Sending Global Markets Down
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Back to the business of selling after brief pop higher yesterday. Spain
bond yields is the latest reason for stocks globally to plunge. Midday
U.S. was down over one percent but models saw a slight chance of a up tick for
the afternoon session.
Going for the close, the Dow Jones Industrials are off by 1.1 percent, the S&P
500 off by 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ off 1 percent. Same story, Europe
licking its Greece and Spain wounds and until the story gets near an end, global
markets will react with each piece of news.
Asia Pacific stock markets and European markets all sink as crisis in Euro land
continues to hold global markets hostage.
Market Refocused On Economics
And Earnings While A Hint On QE3 Sent Stocks Higher, Some Say
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Europe still struggling with debt issues not affecting markets in Europe or in
the U.S. as the U.S. tries to refocus on economics and prepare for big data
points in this shorted week.
Stocks take a dip midday but recover as markets try to refocus on economics and
earnings; with less than a half-hour to go, the averages are higher by
nearly one percent.
More and more talk of QE3 is judged for a spike in the equity market Tuesday;
the media theme on QE3 is that it will come earlier than later this year because
of the election process in the U.S. Not that it will occur at all, but if
the Fed deem it necessary- based on jobs and GDP- then it could come before mid
summer- June July time frame.
Facebook shares continue to degrade on options Tuesday while law suite-talk
piles up on just about anybody having a hand in the troubled company.
Facebook (FB)
ended below $29 a share while after-hours selling was minimal.
Equities Turnoff Ahead Of
Long Holiday Weekend As Traders Get A Head Start
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Its finally here- almost. The holiday is but a step away. Markets
have been very tricky to navigating, trying to do deals is horrendous for some
marketeers. Markets in the U.S. look for a flat session Friday- oh please-
and get started on a long weekends to rejuvenate.
Stocks meandered in morning trade Thursday looking for direction. Asia
Pacific markets ended mostly down while Europe markets ended positive.
Jobless new claims and Durable Goods orders had little affect over the markets.
Getting that time of the month to look forward to GDP and payrolls- may see
stocks flat until then, all things equal.
With Monday a holiday and some big data points ahead, (GDP and payroll) traders
and investors reposition with both eyes on Europe; the Dow, S&P 500, and
the NASDAQ head for unchanged, seeking a neutral close.
Global Equity Markets Sold
Off Wednesday While U.S. Stocks Make Comeback Ending Flat- Victory Of Sorts
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
With already huge losses, stocks continue the deep dive on growing speculation
that Greece will exit the Euro; that brings up all kinds of worries like
what will happen to Spain- Italy- Euro Area- what will happens to the Euro
currency- What will Greece do for a currency- how much will the Greek people
lose and the big question, how will this all unfold.
Stocks looked very negative during the day with Europe and Asia markets ending
well into negative territory; U.S. tries for a neutral end as it streams
higher going into the close Wednesday.
U.S. posted a mixed close making a comeback, rallying back from deep in negative
territory; NASDAQ posted a 0.4 percent gain, S&P 500 posted a 0.2 percent
gain while the Dow closed virtually unchanged after being down in triple digits.
Two cable network stations say that the NYSE is trying to get Facebook to move
to the NYSE just after days of trading on the NASDAQ.
U.S. Saw Selling In The Last
Hour, One Day Rally Ends; Models Downgrade The Forecast Bias
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Stocks get off to another good start following Mondays rally but not without a
dip at the noon hour.
Facebook still is very much in focus with
investors licking their wounds while NASDAQ and the brokerage houses
try to clean up their mess. Facebook (FB)
continues to sell off reducing the price to the lower 30's. Europe also in
focus but taking a backseat to Facebook for the time being.
Stocks make run at negative territory at the close posting mixed results as
unsettled orders remain at the close. Pre close Barometer models downgrade
the Bias to negative on inability of the stock market to hold onto Mondays rally
convincingly.
Sell in May and go away looks tempting as stocks are having a tough time of it
even after a three week sellathon. The forecast is one step away from
indicating negative. That would mean a huge chance of further declines for
global markets including the U.S.
Sell in May 2012 and go away would have
been a good choice for the month of May. Stocks have inched-up, from back in June
of 2012 and the question now is will the market
continue its lofty ascent or
is there a pullback/ correction ahead.
The S&P 500 was down around six percent from the
S&P 500 high close of 2012 towards the end of May.
How the markets perform from that point is going to depend, of course, on news from Europe
and the Iranian nuclear problem- crisis to be?, as well as numerous other
concerns
Models run multiple times daily to analyze news/
events and the effect that it has on markets, futures, and sentiment. The
forecast can
change rather quickly, so stay tuned.
A little history: The focus had returned to Greece, Spain, and Italy. Markets worry that the Euro Area is becoming more unstable with regards to effectively, financially, govern its member
nations.
Even though the second Greek election
showed the majority was in favor of staying in the Euro, Greece exit from the Euro Area is
becoming more believable. Some strategists believe the exit could occur
in
2013. The latest bailout may not be enough to keep the country stable-
unrest could pick up.
Here in the U.S. QE3, QE4, to the nth
degree, was announced by the Fed along with extending operation twist and
keeping the target for the Federal funds rate accommodative to at least mid
2015.
The quantitative easing (QE) surprised the markets in that
QE could become an economic (IV) drip of market-sugar, month by month, as the Fed says it
will purchase $40 billion in instruments monthly (probably mortgage-backed
securities) for as long as it takes, an
indefinite inflation builder. Markets around the globe rallied because of
Europe and the U.S. infusion of money.
The U.S. has its debt problems that don't
seem to be going anywhere. The elections are done as Obama will see
another four years. The big question is can Obama and the House get along
enough to address some major problems.
The latest QE and stimulus will help
the stock market in the long run. Models indicate after the sugar rally
calms down we could see a pullback/ correction.
There are big problems, hurdles,
enormous problems that could keep markets from advancing. Here is the
short version:
1. Big banks, countries, and cities
have been
downgraded.
2. Iran nuclear program. Crisis to be
is probably up next for the world to deal with.
3. North Korea missile program becomes
more troubling for the U.S.
4. Spain debt problems that could
escalate.
5. China, Asia
Pacific, and Europe economies still troublesome.
6. U.S. budget- fiscal cliff.
Can Congress and the President get it together?
7. U.S. economic slowdown- stagnate
jobs growth.
8. Tax increase in 2013.
9. Can business be inspired to remain
in the U.S. and create U.S. jobs or will Government policy continue to expatriate jobs.
As for the Fiscal Cliff. A vote
on plan B, the tax bill, was scrubbed by the GOP as it
appeared there wouldn't be enough votes for. Traders and investors
had time to digest the news before the markets opened on Friday, a week ahead of
the cliff.
Traders and inventors where able to
keep the sell off, controlled. As it were, the week ended with the
averages posting a gain.
It was onto the last full week of the
year and Washington decided to go on Christmas break rather than sticking it out
and keeping America from going over the cliff. A no deal by Monday and
it's almost a sure bet for the markets to tank- maybe that's what Washington
wants.
Hello- anybody there in Washington.
It's the weekend and no deal yet. Guess we could go to Monday, New Years
Eve night, and as the Ball is dropping down they could strike a deal- or not.
The market probably will freak-out but
most believe if there's a no deal it will be a gentle slid down the cliff in
January with probably a couple cliffhanger's on the way down. Does this
feel like Europe's way of doing business?
Traders love this, it makes them money
with stocks going in all directions at once. Investors, hang in
there.
Last minute deal between the
President, Senate, and the House got a deal done sufficient enough to avert
going over the Fiscal Cliff. A deal was hammered out on New Years day with
the House approving the measures late Tuesday (1/1/2013).
It's rally time as markets around the
globe can now focus on earnings and the economy and all the other problems
outlined above.
Since Thanksgiving week, the S&P 500 has gained near 9
percent, as investors and traders continue to inch this market up.
It is expected this Tortoise like market to continue.
Fiscal Cliff is done for now. A
vote to extend the national debt limit was approved in the House
and kicks the debt problems down the road for lawmakers to deal with in the
months to come.
February- March timeframe for another series of deadlines that Washington must deal with. March madness
is on the horizon.
Facebook missed out on rally by one day NASDAQ
Monday, May 21, 2012
Between the brokerage firms and NASDAQ and all in-between, retail investors get
screwed again.
There's little doubt that fund managers and traders will get satisfied by those
in power, but ask the retail investor what he/she thinks about that can't be
written here.
Needless to say the NASDAQ and routing services have no comment or won't return
messages. Market Barometer got a retail investors log/ diary of the mess
it caused this person.
All the analysts and market 'Talking Heads'
wonder why the retail investor isn't coming back. It's because
every time they try, something like this happens, or flash crash, or just plain
greed by the market players in control.
Here is the log/ diary (unedited) of this individual that seems to get nowhere.
Before the open Friday I put an
order in to buy FB @ $40. When FB started I think the prices was up at $42? It
hovered there for some time. I notice the low was $38.?? I saw the real-time
price come down below $40 but my order didn’t get executed. After some time I
canceled the order so that I could go into the open market and decide to buy or
not. The cancellation got stuck and I was left not knowing what to do. It stayed
that way for hours and I called Fidelity to find out what happened. They told me
that there was/ is a problem in getting orders back to Fidelity. I was told to wait. I
did all day and finally called Fidelity back and talked to Jxx Hxxxxxx in
Dallas. He said much the same as the first guy. He asked me what was the price
when I tried to cancel. I told him around $41 something like that. He said to wait let
NASDAQ get things straight and see where I stand when the problem gets fixed.
time 15:52p ct Friday...
(this paragraph was left out of the original publication)
I looked at my IRA and found that I did buy Facebook. I
called Fidelity and told them I don’t want them and explained the story to them.
He said there is nothing that can be done as to order executed before the cancel
go to them. So we now own Facebook which is crashing Monday morning. I wanted to
protest it but Fidelity said they cant. )
0909hrs. I tried putting in an order to sell the stock at
$38 limit. I saw where someone was bidding the stock up to $38 from around $35.
I put the order in but got a message back 'the position to sell was not
found...' I have a copy of this in the receipts printer. I called Fidelity they
said something like it needs to be cycled tonight? That they would have to put
the order in. I told him I don't know what I want to (do) now. I told him to log
this problem in my file- I'm very unhappy about this whole thing. Now the price
is down to around $33. So I don't have a clue what to do.
0918hrs. News media Friday said the market makers were
keeping the price at $38.23, or so, that they didn't want the price to close
below the IPO. I saw on CNBC Monday morning, just after the open, several
screens that showed the price fluctuating between around $35 and $38. So I
decide to try and get out at $38 hoping they would just take that. But once
again I was denied access to these shares this time it looks like a Fidelity
problem.
Monday 10:31a ct: Facebook problem continued: I need to
find out who is responsible for my account- Facebook stock- being 'order
frozen'. Friday. My orders got hung-up somewhere- Fidelity says NASDAQ. Monday I
tried placing an order to sell and got a screen that said 'the position to sell
was not found'. So I called Fidelity about this issue. So I have watched the
price go from around $41 - $42 Friday then lower to $38's at the close. Monday
midmorning at about $33 and still unable to trade these shares. Fidelity did say
that they would place the order for me but I want to do that, I want to
determine on my own time to either do it or not. I have been unable to place a
Facebook order since Friday through Monday midmorning. I want to know who is
responsible.
1:06p ct: I called Fidelity to find out who is
responsible. Of course they wouldn't say. They said they would put the order in
for me, I told him I want to do that, I should be able to do that, not rely on
Fidelity to do my trading. He kept saying the same thing over and over. I
finally said I need to make sure this gets into the record that I'm very upset
that I can't get the answer to who is responsible. Told him I want to escalate
this to his manager. I talked to his manager and basically the same thing- they
don't want to point fingers. He too said he would trade for me. I explained the
entire problem from the start Friday. The manager said he is going to put in a
dispute to the fact that the stock is in my account. He said chances are the
order got executed before my cancellation order go out. I told him that isn't my
problem, that they didn't tell me the order got executed. My whole thing is- it
is not my fault that NASDAQ or whoever screwed this whole thing up, that I
shouldn't have to suffer because of NASDAQ problems. I told him I'm just a
simple retail investor and this account doesn't mean much to them but it does to
me and that I've been upset all this time from Friday through the weekend to
now. He said he or someone will call back after review of the dispute.
Fidelity Takes
The Initiative Reversing Facebook Trade: It may take years
to unravel just what happened and those that are responsible for this huge
screw-up. But for this retail investor, that appeared had lost out on the
Facebook trade, informed Market Barometer that Fidelity backed out the entire
trade and restored the account to back before that terrible IPO depute.
We don't know how many accounts will be resorted but we do know that Fidelity
came through for at least this one individual. I guess Fidelity is
determined to keep its integrity and its name by definition- "strict observance
of promises"- duty... Kudos Fidelity...
(these two paragraphs were added on 6/2/2012 at 12:05p ET.)
Stocks Drown For A Third Week, Facebook Was
Supposed To Energize The Market
Friday, May 18, 2012
U.S. got off to a flat start bouncing around the flat line Friday morning.
And if you put an order in for Facebook, good luck in getting a response back
from your brokerage.
Seems like, according to sources, once you have placed your order for Facebook (FB)
you may or may not get a confirmation. Orders are supposedly executing but
the link from the exchanges back to your brokerage house is having trouble
getting orders through.
If you get frustrated not knowing what's going on and cancel- that to can get
hung up effectively holding both orders in limbo.
That depending on how much your account is and the trade will have an effect of
freezing your account not knowing whether which order gets executed or not.
Brokerage's advise to hold tight- but I would call your broker to get status of
the problem.
We can add another down week to the already two week loss with Fridays market;
it was supposed to be somewhat positive or at least flat. You have to
wonder how much the Facebook NASDAQ fowl up could have cast a negative ness on
the general market. The Dow lost 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.7
percent, and the NASDAQ lost well over 1-percent.
Looking At Three Weeks Of Losses Unless Facebook Can Rally Markets
Thursday, May 17, 2012
U.S. stock market futures setup for a flat open as traders continue to deal with
the Greece crisis. Jobless new claims data came in slightly short of
expectation didn't affect futures.
Stocks slithered lower, took a dive at the noon hour but was short-lived as
traders recovered some lost ground by early afternoon; Europe stock
markets posted over a one percent loss while Asia Pacific stocks saw a mixed end
Thursday.
Can Facebook pull stocks back on its debut. there's a lot of traders and
investors hoping for a comeback. If not, U.S. is looking at three weeks of
losses for the equity market.
U.S. stocks end at the low of the session Thursday with the major indexes
falling one to two percent. Not much chance to save this week from the
Bears unless Facebook can inspire buying of the broader market. Tech hit
the hardest with over a two percent loss on the day.
No Gain
All Kinds Of Pain As Stocks Go For Three Weeks Down
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
What a difference a day makes, or not. U.S. equity market got off to a
good start but slipped to the unchanged line in the late morning session.
With less bad news and quarterly earnings nearly over, it's onto fundamentals-
data and Facebook IPO, for this instant in time- things can and will
change rapidly.
The positive ness didn't last as stocks dip back into negative territory in
afternoon trade. traders reviewing FOMC schedule change and minutes from
last meeting.
QE3 back on the table- has been all this time- but traders not responding, yet.
Wednesday saw positive session turn south with the averages posting negative
results; Dow down 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 down 0.4 percent, and the
NASDAQ down 0.7 percent.
U.S. Equities Turned South Tuesday As Thought Of Greece Leaving The Euro Area
Took Buyers to the sidelines
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
U.S. got off to a slow start, dipping briefly into negative territory, then
marching higher into midday. Europe, CPI, retail sales, Empire State
index, and JP Morgan trading situation all had the focus for the start of
business Tuesday.
The broader market of stocks and blue chips give up a moderate gain settling at
the unchanged-line while NASDAQ tech stocks sees a nice gain in the early
afternoon session.
Buyers to the sidelines taking the equity market lower Tuesday after a walk on
the positive side. The thought of Greece leaving the Euro Area is too much
for buyers as traders are now concerned with an S&P 500 having difficulties with
support levels. Traders could be repositioning for more downside risk.
The Dow Jones Industrials posted a 1/2 percent loss, the S&P 500 lost 0.6
percent, and the NASDAQ lost 0.3 percent.
U.S. Equity Sell-Off On Greece Eurozone Uncertainty And JPMorgan's Boo Boo
Monday, May 14, 2012
U.S. got off to a nasty start with the averages diving 1 percent at the start of
Business Monday.
Major concern is the continuing saga in Europe with Greece now expected to leave
the Euro Area, as discussion groups would have it. JPMorgan latest
downgrade Friday has media discussing more oversight from Government.
Uncertainty abounds and markets don't like the unknown; Europe and the
global economy is the top two uncertainties Monday.
Model data, this afternoon, indicates further downside risk for U.S. equity
market exists; the BLI, the short term forecast, was downgraded to
negative this afternoon, before the close.
JPMorgan Set Tone For
Friday And Probably Beyond
Friday, May 11, 2012
Stocks spend little time in negative territory Friday morning. With all
the bad news floating around - JPMorgan- PPI data- Greece- China data- you would
think stocks would have plunged.
Failed trading at JPMorgan sends U.S. stocks to flatsville. Stocks try to
make a go of it but uneasy feelings on big banks had traders and investors
worried. With less than half-hour to go, NASDAQ was up by 0.1 percent, Dow
and the broader market down by 0.3 percent.
Stocks
Held Positive Territory; Flat End Is A Victory Of Sorts
Thursday, May 10, 2012
U.S. got off to a great start only to see things degrade over the course of the
morning session. Tech visits negative territory with the broader market
and blue chips not far behind.
U.S. Stock market
meanders off the session high, trying to maintain a positive stance, but
trending lower towards unchanged. No new news to spark trades one way or
the other- so stock prices meander.
Stocks Fall On Greece, Spain,
And Italy Woes; Euro Area Worries Are Back As Is Volatility
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Greece back in focus as issues with Greece's ability to handle debt crisis is
worrying markets. The worry is that these problems could move to Spain and
Italy. Stocks continue to fall as selling pressure is intensifying in an
already, some say, overbought market.
The U.S. major indexes fell sharply Wednesday morning but like yesterdays
market, stocks rebound after Europe markets close. Approaching midday,
U.S. stocks have reversed most of the early losses, nearing the unchanged-line.
Just like Tuesday's market, stocks come back trying to make it to UNCH.
Global markets trying to beat down the U.S. market but after Europe's close
stocks try to make it back. The major indexes fall short, closing with a
loss but well off the lows.
U.S. Stocks
Try For A Comeback; Post Well Off The Bottom
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Stocks plunge Tuesday reaching Dow triple digits early. Europe, especially
Greece, has traders real worried. The safe bet is to sell and get out of
the way of the falling indexes.
Traders try to make good on comeback, make it almost all the way back from 200
plus Dow down points Tuesday. Europe ended well in negative territory when
U.S. began its comeback with a steady inching higher to the close falling short
by some 80 points.
A no dip at the end could give clue to Wednesdays stocks market. We could
see a positive session Wednesdays pending EU news, of course.
Europe News Mostly Ignored
Monday By Traders As Stocks Ramp Up Into Positive Territory
Monday, May 7, 2012
U.S. setup for a very negative open, early on, but had improved throughout the
morning to start just slightly lower.
Europe elections in France and Greece set the tone for Monday's global markets.
Although Europe stock markets had improved and showed mixed results, Asia
Pacific markets continued being pressured by global events.
The U.S. stock market takes Europe election news in stride, reverses direction,
ramping up into positive territory.
S&P 500 and tech went positive Monday dragging the Dow higher. Broader
market posts a small gain as the major indexes huddle around the unchanged line.
Jobs Set The Tone For Fridays Trading
Friday, May 4, 2012
Futures were flat ahead of the big report of the month- April's jobs payroll
report- stocks could become volatile depending on the number. Europe stocks are
down anticipating a not so good number.
Jobs created 115,000, somewhat below expectation; revisions are key and
they where upgraded sending futures temporarily higher. Unemployment rate
moved lower to 8.1 percent for the month of April.
Midday stocks hold onto a better than one percent loss as trading today is
mostly shoot and ask questions later. The jobs data is so confusing that
it's hard to determine what positions are appropriate. So it's a lot easer
to sell and wait.
Going to the close, stocks hold onto one to two percent loss for the session
with the tech stocks doing worse. This could be the beginning of the
pullback/ correction that appears to be well overdue.
Traders Position For Volatile
Session Friday Ahead Of Payroll Unemployment Report
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Stock move lower Thursday as traders reposition their portfolio for what could
be a volatile Friday. The payroll jobs report is due out tomorrow and
conflicting signals from other jobs reports make trading choppy Thursday.
Market are worried Thursday ahead of the jobs report Friday. Traders are
unsure how the markets will take the report positioning themselves for a
negative reaction. Several attempts to reverse direction have failed
sending the averages down half to one percent in the last hour of trade.
Dow Down In Triple Digits
Makes Comeback To Unchanged; Tech Posts Another Gain
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
U.S. got off to an iffy start but midday reversal saw tech turning positive with
the broader market following, but still slightly in the red.
China's manufacturing pick-up and hope for a U.S. recovery -stimulus- traders
try to make Wednesday six out of seven. A not so good private jobs
report sent the averages to an early negative morning session.
With less than a half-hour to go, stocks try for positive territory, led by
NASDAQ stocks. All the negative news hasn't stopped the U.S. stock market
from inching higher.
Tomorrows jobless new claims might get traders attention- a big miss could
derail the market advance.
Dow and the broader market made a run at positive territory but fell short of
the unchanged-line. NASDAQ stocks rose 1/3 percent, the Dow ended
virtually unchanged, and the S&P 500 ended lower by 1/4 percent.
Euro
Area and U.S. markets have been under
pressure for months as debt and budget issues continue to be troublesome.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Germany, France, and the entire Euro
Area along with the EU and the U.S. having a
difficult time with debt and budget matters, had kept stocks in a trading range.
Traders and investors had little else to focus on through the Summer-Fall months and
into Winter.
A 100B Euro rescue
package for Greece was approved. That and other related Eurozone news inspired the markets to
rally out of the trading range.
But Greece had decided to conduct a
referendum, a democratic vote by the people to finally decide on the mater.
Global markets plunge on the Greece decision to conduct a vote.
The referendum had since been abandoned and
a vote of confidence was taken on November 11, 2011. Greece PM Papandreou won the
vote setting the stage for a possible calmer period as Greece and other
countries reform the
Governments.
Germany and France agreed upon
measures to try and build global confidence but had a hard sell to the other
Euro Area countries as well as the EU.
The week of December 4, 2011 was
an important week for the Eurozone summit to make final plans to address the
debt issues plaguing Europe and the global community.
Standard and Poor's Ratings Services provided the incentive to acquire a agreement among the Euro Area countries
by threatening a downgrade.
S&P placed the Euro Area countries on
credit watch negative and as much threatened to a speedily analysis if an
acceptable deal wasn't acquired at the summit.
The Eurozone summit ended and the leaders put forth
measures they believed would satisfy critics and the markets.
Most analysts didn't think this would
be enough and believed debt defaults would occur.
Although volatility has settled down
somewhat from the Summer-Fall months, models continue to show volatility could
pick back up.
Santa had too much to do on Christmas, delivering presents, had no time for
investors, sending the S&P 500 index flat for the year.
As promised, S&P Ratings Services downgraded most of the Euro Area countries and
the stability facility.
The new year has produced no volatility, yet. So far in 2012 we are seeing
markets in the U.S.
disconnect from the troubles in Europe.
Stocks have been grinding higher in a
steady slow pace with little setback. The S&P 500 index has pushed through
the top of the trading range and is currently testing the outer limits.
Where we go from here is going to be based on earnings forecast/ outlook from
companies and Europe for months/ years to come.
With the Greece debt deal approved and in the hands of the Greek Government to
execute, it's onto fundamentals for traders or the next big thing to worry
about.
The Barometer BLI, the short term forecast, was downgraded to neutral from
positive suggesting a growing chance that the U.S. stock market will drop back
into the trading range.
Day Two, Rally Continues As
Google Reported In-Line Results With Banks Expected To Do Well
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Stocks ramp up Thursday as earnings surprise from Alcoa is still sticky.
Google is on deck after the close and could keep the rally going or quash it.
And QE3 is back on the front burner for traders. Traders will tell you
they don't like QE but show a rumor and its off to the races.
Jobless initial claims jump but still contained in channel
-chart- that continues to indicate an improving jobs picture for the
economy, albeit very slow improvement.
Manufacturing
prices were stable in March (unchanged from February) while the core
price (less food and energy) rose 0.3 percent.
Stocks continue to ramp-up taking back some of the previous sell off as the
earnings parade gets underway with Alcoa handily beating estimates; Goggle
tonight, banks tomorrow; watch out if someone disappoints.
Google reported earnings mostly in line; stock was moderately higher in
the after-hours session; Google declared a dividend and a 2:1 split.
Banks report tomorrow and hopefully another batch of good reports can keep the
rally alive.
Stocks Rally After Deep sell
off, As Alcoa's Earnings Inspires; What's Next, Google, It's Your Turn At The
Whipping Post
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Big comeback for Europe and U.S. stocks Wednesday as Europe debt problems ease
slightly and Alcoa has inspired the globe with its earnings/ outlook.
Major indexes bounce around session high for most of the day but trending lower
going into the close. Question of the day. Is Alcoa's earnings beat
and outlook for real. Any other company report able to back-up Alcoa's
tremendous quarterly report. As they say in the The Outer Limits TV
series- Please Stand By...
Wont have to wait long as Google gets its turn Thursday after the close. A
good report card may keep this fledgling rally going.
Big Sell Off As The Equity Market Gets slammed On Economic Concerns
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Stocks got off to a flat
mixed start Tuesday, as traders get over jobs concerns, for now, and refocus to
earnings season.
Alcoa gets things going
for earnings today; Alcoa is important because of the metals, primary and
fabricated aluminum, it manufactures. Aluminum is used in a wide range of
products and can be used as a gage of how the economy is doing and more
importantly the outlook. Alcoa to host webcast at 5:00p ET, after the
close.
With Europe worries back
to take stocks down another notch or two, a somewhat guarded earnings season
gets under way that could, in combination with Europe problems, take stocks down
throughout summer. Midday U.S. stocks had already lost over 1 percent.
Alcoa handily beats estimates that
could inspire the market Wednesday. Asia Pacific markets and Europe
markets, later this evening and early tomorrow morning, will give us a clue on
how the U.S. will open.
Alcoa said earnings
rebounded over the previous quarter on higher productivity and improving
markets.
Income from continuing
operations is $94 million, or $0.09 per share for the first quarter.
Revenue was $6 billion, up y/y, despite a nine percent drop in aluminum prices.
Cash on hand $1.7 billion. Alcoa share price was up in the after market.
Traders Finally Get To Trade
The Jobs Report, Looked For Reversal Midday, But Reversal Fails, Sending Stocks
To A One Percent Loss
Monday, April 9, 2012
After long holiday
weekend markets in the U.S. and Europe getting back to business. A
disappointing payroll number Friday, when most markets were closed, could have a
negative reaction at the U.S. start.
Europe stock markets
were mixed, mid session Monday, while U.S. gets ready for a busy week starting
in negative territory. The short-term forecast (BLI) was downgraded to
neutral, last week, as the U.S. stock market appears to be ready for a pullback/
correction.
As expected, stocks sell
off at the start of business Monday sending the Dow to a triple digit loss;
although trying to get off the bottom, stocks continue negative with no
indication of a reversal midday Monday.
Stocks inch their way
back off the low but still holding onto lots of red ink Monday, as traders
reposition ahead of earnings. Going into the close, the Dow, S&P 500, and
the NASDAQ are off nearly one percent.
U.S. Bounced Back, Closing
Mixed Thursday, With March Payroll/ Unemployment Report On Deck
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Global markets,
including the U.S., are still under pressure to sell equities. The Fed
shelving QE3, regardless of what traders say, hurts the bull market as selling
continues for a third day.
Unemployment new claims
drop 6,000, last week, to 357,000, continuing to indicate an improving jobs
market
-chart-, laying the ground work for a positive
payroll number Friday.
U.S. stocks try for a
mixed close ahead of long holiday weekend and the
payroll jobs number Friday; tech jumps into positive territory
early trying to lure the broader market.
The NASDAQ closed up 0.4
percent, the S&P 500 and the Dow ended slightly lower by 0.1 percent.
Dow's Triple Digit Loss
Wednesday On Shelved QE3- Short Term Forecast Downgraded To Neutral
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
QE3 shelved by the Fed
seems to be the catalyst for the global sell off, as markets around the world
move into negative territory Wednesday, as most in the marketplace believe that
a stock market pullback is at hand.
Stocks continue to
sideways trade near the lows of the session as the afternoon model run proceeds
to change the short term forecast (BLI) to neutral.
The Market Barometer afternoon model changed the short-term forecast
to neutral. Data shows the U.S. stock market, as well as the global
markets, continue to degrade. Although a pullback is near, several
sessions of positive ness may be expected before the pullback gets underway.
Stocks turn in a loss for Wednesday but manage to
improve slightly. Tech posts a 1-1/2 percent loss; Dow and S&P 500
post a 1 percent loss.
U.S. Stocks Tried To Make It
Back From Negative Territory, But Ended Mixed
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Mostly expected GDP and
jobless initial claims data saw U.S. futures indicate lower open for stocks
Thursday.
GDP grew at 3 percent in Q-4 as the market
expected while
unemployment initial claims dropped 5,000 but
ticked up because of revision. Data pretty much expected saw little change
in the opening of the U.S. stock market.
U.S. stocks opened
Thursday's session well into negative territory, bounced around the bottom for
most of the session, turned up in early afternoon, trying to end near neutral
ground, the unchanged line.
Yesterdays model data
showed two scenarios that could prevent or stay the pullback. Even though
a pullback/ correction will occur, today or tomorrow may not be the day.
One scenario indicated that if a couple of sessions of
neutral, like Thursdays market, followed by a positive session, it
could hold off the pullback.
The short-term forecast
(BLI) continues to indicate positive, while the long-term forecast continues at
caution.
Today's Negative U.S. Stock
Market Prompted Concern Of Correction; Models To Test Pullback Viability
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Global markets turn
negative Wednesday, setting the stage for the U.S. to follow. Stocks
opened flat tuning mostly negative. Durable goods data turned markets
lower Wednesday as data disappoints.
With less than
fifteen-minutes to go, stocks are showing red, but off the lows of the session.
Markets are bracing for a pullback but whether this is it or not isn't 100
percent. Models that run this evening will shed light on the pullback
issue.
Model data is
suggesting a pullback could be underway. One model shows the S&P
500 would have to get above 1418 before declaring a false pullback.
Another model shows that a couple of flat neutral S&P 500 sessions followed
by a positive session could keep the pullback at bay.
The S&P 500, as with the
rest of the U.S. stock market, is overdue for a correction. How deep and
how fast will depend on the news from the U.S. and Europe.
Asia Pacific and the
European markets will be affected by the U.S. correction if and when it occurs.
Watch for the BLI to
change when the models can confirm a pullback. The short-term forecast
(BLI) continues at positive while the long-term forecast continues at caution.
U.S. Stock Market Rallied
Monday On Quantitative Easing Hope And Window Dressing
Monday, March 26, 2012
New week and hopefully
continued upward trend for stocks as end of quarter trading/ positioning gets
underway Monday.
Fed Chief Bernanke
speech at the NABE boosted Mondays Futures market by hinting at QE3.
Futures spiked when Bernanke suggested further accommodative policy (QE3) to
address the 'out of norm' jobs recovery.
U.S. stocks rally Monday
as a QE3 becomes more of a focus for the Fed; rally also brought to you by
traders and investors trying to improve performance in their funds/ holdings.
Related:
The sort-term forecast was upgraded
last Friday to positive
U.S. Stocks Close Higher
Ending Global Equity Market Slump
Friday, March 23, 2012
Global economic concerns
continue with Asia Pacific stocks ending Friday down, while Europe popped up to
end modestly higher Friday.
U.S. equity market mixed
in afternoon trade Friday with tech struggling near the unchanged line.
U.S. trying to end the
cycle of negative ness Friday with a run to the positive side, albeit in slow
motion. Global markets have been in the dumps most of the week with the
U.S. market last in line to turn things around.
The Market Barometer pre
close model run changed the short term forecast, the BLI, to positive from
neutral. Models indicate U.S. stocks could continue inching ahead,
possibly through earnings season.
The U.S. Market Tried For A
Positive End But Got A Mostly Third Session Down
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Positive markets in Asia
Pacific, but Europe markets were under pressure from China and European economic
data.
U.S. taking its cue from
Europe, opened in negative territory Thursday.
What was to be a bright
spot- unemployment new claims data- didn't do much for the U.S. Futures market.
Claims chart continues to show job improvement in the U.S.
Stocks on the way back
to neutral territory when a fresh dive lower into negative territory Thursday
afternoon as global markets increasingly fear a global slowdown.
Market Tried For A Comeback
But Dived At The Close, Could Cause Global Selling Thursday
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Early look at the U.S.
open saw a neutral start as the market awaited housing data. Asia markets
ended mixed while Europe posted mild gains, mid session.
The U.S. equity market
got off to a flat start with traders and investors looking for direction.
If there's no direction, the market could continue inching its way higher.
We had a good market
going Wednesday when late in the session, just ahead of the close, selling took
off, causing the indexes to dive. Could cause global markets to get off to
a nasty start Thursday, with the U.S. open seen as problematic.
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