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POSITIVE |
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.Bias |
NEUTRAL |
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.BLI |
NEUTRAL |
| Extended Forecast | |
FORECAST: Today's forecast Market watch MARKETS: Market overview News INVESTING: Investing 101 Stock screener
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Today's market forecast and news Forecast; S&P 500 performance; Today's snippets.
U.S. and overseas market update... Market news; indexes and charts
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Top stories and market summary...
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Smells like a pullback, kind of looks like one, summer slowdown gets underway Investors and traders continue to sell Tuesday as it looks a lot like a pullback, especially as we enter the summer slowdown period, when money drops off as does the market. The market did make it off the lows of the session, in afternoon trade, only to drop back down for the close. The pre close model changed the Leading Indicator to neutral. Data from the model shows the high probability-- especially after such a run-up from the March low-- of a substantial pullback. The major indexes show the Dow sinking 1.3 percent as did the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ was off 1.3 percent. Tuesday, June 16, 2009
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Wall Street gets beaten back as shares dive on pullback fear At the noon hour the major indexes were already 2 to 3 percent lower as investors fear the pullback may be getting underway. As the Dollar moves up, oil and stocks drop like a rock. A poor reading of the manufacturing report and the IMF chief talking the global economy down, saying basically that we may not have seen the recession bottom, has given the catalyst for today's selling. The latest Market Barometer [weekend model run] shows that the market may be on the brink of a new leg up. As of midday, the forecast remains the same but that could change towards the close. Monday, June 15, 2009
Model data indicates stock market fundamentals are still good Data from the Market Barometer models continue to suggest that we could be on the verge of a new leg up for stocks that could last 4 to 6 weeks before a pullback. The detail chart- detail look at the November and March bottom- shows that we could be entering a period much like the one from March 10, 2009 to mid May, at which time we start to lose momentum and may have been in a shallow consolidation. Another look at the data- Market Barometer data 2006 through current- can be found in the non-detail chart that shows a better view of the possible breakout from resistance levels. This chart shows an overall view of the current relationship with previous tops and bottoms. We can never over emphasize that any forecast or prediction is for the fundamentals. Bad or good news can turn the market away from the fundamentals. Always be prepared for the unexpected. Saturday, June 13, 2009
No change to the forecast-bias as stocks ramp up leaving the Dow behind The Dow could be adjusting to the newcomers [Cisco Systems - Travelers] and it most likely will get back on track soon. Tech stocks ramp up as the broader market follows but data from the models show the prime metric for the bias upgrade came in just short of the trigger. This really isn't a problem for the forecast as both It and the BLI are positive. If the rally continues the bias will follow with an upgrade. >The last model run of the evening shows building evidence of a major leg higher- the continuation of the rally. As is in most cases a catalyst is needed to get it going but these flat positive days are setting off Barometer metrics that suggest we could go higher into the area of where the correction, overdue, could set up. Not all the data is aligned with this but some are and others could setup to reinforce the next explosion higher. As always, remember this is a forecast and bad news can also have the same more violent effect lower. Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Investors feeling confident in rally, push shares up Thursday ahead of data Thursdays stock market saw steady trading with the averages showing gains throughout the afternoon session, posting 1.1 percent at the close [major averages, averaged]. The Government reported today another decline in new unemployment claims which now appears that we may have seen a peak in [new unemployment claims chart] new filings. This may have an effect on Fridays nonfarm report which investors are waiting on. They feel OK with it as stocks continue to rally. The Government released the Productivity report, earlier this morning, showing productivity increases for the first-quarter of 1.8 percent in the business sector and 1.6 percent in the nonfarm business sector. Thursday, June 4, 2009
U.S. investors pullback taking profit positioning for Fridays important payroll data With one payroll data point in [ADP] and the nonfarm payroll jobs report- due Friday- investors to eye just how much above 500,000 jobs were lost in May. After several days of upside movement and months of Bullishness, stocks rested Wednesday with the DJIA off by 3/4 percent, NASDAQ off 0.6 percent, and the S&P 500 off by 1.4 percent, well of the lows off the session. Data from the models indicate the possibility of up and down [stock] markets in range bound fashion for days to come. Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Today the news saw GM filing for bankruptcy protection and economic data [Manufacturing - Personal Income] that got investors to bid shares higher while Travelers and Cisco Systems got news of their addition to the Dow Jones Industrial index replacing Citi Group and GM. During the midday Barometer model run, the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) was upgraded to neutral. This indicates an improvement in the past couple of sessions, as previously It was thought that a pullback was on the way. Monday, June 1, 2009
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