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Draghi Pledge To Support Euro Could Be Prelude To Coordinated Easing- Stocks Rally

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Global markets rally Thursday on comment from Draghi to support the Euro;  announcement comes days ahead of FOMC meeting next week when it now is expected that the central banks will coordinate easing- QE.

 

Initial jobless claims reverses direction, took back last weeks increase;  chart indicates a possible new direction for the jobs market- could be improving.  Next weeks data will be important to see if there is a new direction, or start of one, in the jobs market.

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Asia Pacific and European stock markets rally Thursday setting a bullish tone for the U.S. stock market.  With Draghi's comment setting the tone and data, earnings, and a somewhat depressed U.S. stock market, set the stage for the U.S. to rally for at least a day.

 

 

Mixed Market With The Dow Higher NASDAQ And Broader Market Lower

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Apple [AAPL] earnings miss set the stock market at odds, with the DJIA opening and moving higher while tech and the NASDAQ moves lower- broader market flat to negative.

 

It's all about QE/ stimulus.  The question now is not whether there will be a QE/ stimulus, but rather, when.  Some to most are now expecting QE, in some form, next week- God forbid we don't see it.

 

Split market most of the day with the Dow leading the broader market and tech back to positive territory.  With less than a half-hour to go, the Dow falls back giving up triple digit gain;  broader market and tech fall back into negative territory.

 

Worry Worry Worry- Uncertainty Over Everything Takes Stocks Down

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

More Europe news for markets to ponder, sets the stage for the U.S. to a flat negative start.  Once the news settles down and Europe markets close , U.S. equity markets may have a chance of spring higher in late morning afternoon trade.

 

U.S. equity market revisits yesterdays lows.  With all the bad news and very little good news, stocks move lower, looking for some sort of support.  There is too much wrong everywhere for stocks to climb the wall of worry.  This time, may be different.

 

With all the turmoil in Europe, China GDP slowing, major problems in the U.S., it's probably good news that we aren't headed for depression?  Really!  Lots of stuff going on now in the U.S. is similar to a depression.

 

If it weren't enough for markets to worry about the global problems, we have cities in California going bankrupt, we probably will see another nasty GDP and jobs report;  we'll be lucky to see any job growth at all last month- kidding-  and if the unemployment rate kicks up, it could mean much worse prognosis for the U.S. economy.

 

With all the tax hikes set for next year and the so called deficit-cliff looming, it could shut down the economy altogether.  The good news, housing market appears to be picking up.  That's about it.  There is way to much uncertainty out there- did I mention the elections!  We could be setting the equity market up for a very hard fall- soon.

 

Stocks close well off the low but still mired in negative territory.  It's not likely to get any better tomorrow because of Apple earnings this evening that major disappoints.  But the good news is the Fed has tons of reasons to QE next week.

 

Fear is back, again, on Spain and Euro systemic problems

Monday, July 23, 2012

Global markets selling off send the U.S. futures tumbling, indicating a negative start for the U.S. stock market Monday.

 

Models had indicated a good environment for the U.S. stock market but fear over Spain and Europe as well as the global economic condition and U.S.'s own deficit problem has changed sentiment;  by the noon hour U.S. equity market should have priced in all the bad news;  see where stocks can go in the afternoon session.

 

Euro Area -Spain and Greece- news took U.S. stocks for a ride Monday.  Little has changed except the news but traders and investors saw fit to sell in the morning and rebuild in the afternoon.  The major indexes are still in negative territory but well off the lows of the morning.  Models now show a slight chance of the market moving higher from pre close levels.

 

Stocks Close Lower But Positioned For A Monday Good Start, Models Show

Friday, July 20, 2012

Asia Pacific and European equity markets moved lower Friday with the U.S. following suit.  Good earnings season, thus far, and less bad news has seen markets rallying this week.  Stocks have moved lower Friday morning as it appears consolidation has set in.  Major indexes are off by less than 3/4 percent in late morning trading.

 

Stocks go negative Friday blamed on the Spain 10-year yield, but stocks have been trading up and down with pauses during concurrent moves higher.  Models see another run higher Monday pending news that could derail the upside move.  The forecast bias continues at negative;  the bias is a forecast bias that indicates how close the models are to downgrading the long term forecast to neutral from its current position of caution.

 

Stocks All Over The Place Trying To Be Positive Despite Terrible Jobs Data

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Global stock markets rally Thursday setting the stage for the U.S. stock market to rally as well.  With lots of bad news maybe priced in, stocks look attractive as an investment, so say some analysts.

 

Initial jobless claims disappointed -chart- jumping 34,000 last week, possibly indicating that the previous week drop to be an outlier in the data.  Not good news for those looking for jobs but good news to traders as QE3 appears to be that much closer, some say.

 

Stocks Bounce From Negative Territory With Nearly All Bad News Priced In

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

U.S. stock market opened in negative territory, shook off pre market trades, jumped into positive territory early Wednesday ahead of the Beige Book and day two of Bernanke testimony.

 

Traders anticipate QE3 by the next FOMC meeting;  economic data continues to support the idea of additional help from the Fed;  traders run stocks up, hold the days gain going into the close.

 

Market Has A Quick Tantrum, No QE, Stocks Move Positive

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

All eyes will be on the Hill today as Fed Chief testifies on the economy;  stocks are setting up for a flat start awaiting news or hint of QE3 or some sort of stimulus.

 

IMF sees global growth slowing;  says being hindered by Euro Area debt crisis and U.S. planned tax hikes in 2013;  plan termination of the Bush tax cut.

 

Bernanke testifies says [paraphrase] growth in U.S. slowing and troublesome;  sees Euro Area crisis and U.S. fiscal policy a major hindrance to economic recovery.

 

U.S. stock market sees all the problems but no fix at hand and no stimulus, sends stocks down after good start Tuesday.

 

Tantrum over- lets get it on, says traders.  Stocks run-up after a quick pouting episode.  With less than a half-hour to go, stocks are up in positive territory near 1/2 percent.

 

New Week Same Problems; Global Growth Slowdown And Scuffle In Strait Of Hormuz

Monday, July 16, 2012

New week same old problems with earnings to drive bias.  U.S. equity market looks to open lower Monday with retail sales data having little effect on futures.

 

No where to go for equities as retail sales data keeps buyers on the sidelines.  Going to the close, the major indexes show near 1/3 percent loss on the session.  More earning after the close that could either worsen markets or could uphold Fridays rally.

 

The IMF warned today that further global slowdown if emerging markets continues to slow;  Europe debt crisis and the U.S. policy to increase taxes in 2013 could further slow global growth.  The IMF cut 2012 and 2013 GDP to 3.5 and 3.9 for 2012 and 2013.

 

Triple Digit Loss For The Dow Turned Higher Trying For The Unchanged Line

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Global markets sell off Thursday while U.S. starts out lower even though good data preceded the open Thursday.

 

Markets go lower Thursday as fear of global economic slowdown and all the other troubles befalling the globe [economy]  continues to worry markets.

 

The good news -if it holds up next week- jobless new claims move down 26,000 last week;  claims chart show that is good news for the jobs market and the economy.

 

Barometer model data suggest that if Thursdays market ends negative, we could be looking at 2 to 4 more weeks of mostly negative stock market action.  Further moves lower for the market is somewhat expected and data shows it could last until fall.

 

Industrials breakthrough unchanged, reversing a triple-digit loss while the broader market struggles in negative territory.

 

Stocks end lower again Thursday after a try to close in positive territory.  The Dow posted negative after slipping from positive territory as markets prepare for bank earnings.

 

Traders Take A Wait And See With Fed Minutes

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Futures point to a flat open as markets await more earnings reports.  Europe problems are still there just in the background for now.  U.S. stock market performance for Wednesday is expected to be muted until Fed minutes are release later today.

 

Federal Reserve FOMC minutes are important because the inner workings of the Fed's June meeting could give clue to next policy move- QE3.

 

The Dow drops triple digits after news that there is no QE3 in the immediate future.  The bad news for traders, no QE3 now, the good news, they are talking about it- just have to wait till things get real real bad.  Stocks off the lows but still holding negative territory.

 

Stocks Try For Positive But Gave Up To Earrings Pressure

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Alcoa's slight beat sees U.S. stock market setting up for a flat open as earnings becomes more of a focus as well as Europe's debt crisis.

 

Stocks in the U.S. opened positive but got defensive, dropping into negative territory, late morning Tuesday.  The Dow hanging onto a slight gain while the broader market was flat- tech shares saw slight loss.

 

Market Barometer models continue to indicate a neutral short-term with a negative bias.  Long-term continues at caution.

 

If Alcoa's slight earnings beat is best case, traders pocket some gains anticipating a subdued earnings season.  Stock continue making new session lows heading for the close Tuesday.

 

Stocks Drop Into Negative Territory As Traders Await Alcoa

Monday, July 9, 2012

U.S. equity market setting up for a neutral open as traders and investors gear up for earnings with Alcoa after the close.  Asia Pacific stock markets ended Monday down while European stocks are mostly lower, midday local.

 

Stocks immediately drop into negative territory Monday as earnings season gets underway with traders and investors expecting a dismal earnings season with a guarded outlook/ forecasts.

 

Stocks bounce around the lows of the day probing for direction.  After the close, Alcoa reports results and will give a forecast- outlook for the remainder of year and may give the markets direction.

 

Jobs Report Sends The Dow To Triple Digit Loss

Friday, July 6, 2012

A disappointing jobs report sends stocks lower Friday.  80,000 jobs created in June, a very anemic jobs number sent the Dow Jones Average to triple digit loss by midmorning.

 

The report wasn't so bad that the Fed would have to act with another round of easing or stimulus, so traders base their trades on the fact that the economy will grow but at an anemic rate, but not so bad that additions help from the Government can be expected.

 

Stocks take a dive Friday as the jobs report disappoints but appear not bad enough for the Fed to step in with QE.  Off the low of the session, the Dow still sporting triple digit loss while the broader market tries to hold the loss to one percent.

 

Market Hangs Tough On Surprise Jobs-Data And Rate-Cuts, Keeps Markets Uncertain

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Stocks bounced out of negative territory Tuesday as traders and investors repositioned for Thursday and Fridays data.  Surprise  --kind of expected--  rate cut by China and the ECB did little for Thursdays open;  jobs data  --ADP and jobless new claims--  did little for U.S. equity market in the early going Thursday.

 

ADP reported 176,000 new private jobs in June while the Government reported a drop in jobless initial claims; jobless initial claims chart show negative trend developing in the U.S. jobs market.

 

U.S. equity market got off to a negative start Thursday after rate-cut news and jobs data.  Traders and investors worry over where the economy is headed in the U.S..  Earnings season next week could answer some of the economic puzzle with how companies have done in the recent quarter and what they see for the future- outlook.

 

With less than an hour to go the major indexes show mixed results as traders and investors position for the payroll unemployment report.  Expectations are high for a good number that could major disappoint if less than hoped for results are seen.  Jobs creation number and unemployment rate data could make or break the market tomorrow.

 

Contracting Factory Output Put Damper On Stocks Monday

Monday, July 2, 2012

Monday is setting up for a flat open as pre market trading gets underway on this shortened week;  Tuesday's regular session markets will close early while all markets in the U.S. will be closed Wednesday for Independence Day holiday.

 

Stocks end mixed Monday on manufacturing data.  ISM data showed factory output contracting slightly in June.  Dow and NASDAQ go their separate ways while the broader market ended flat.

 

U.S. Stock Market Rallies On EU Summit Progress

Friday, June 29, 2012

Asia Pacific and European stock markets rally Friday as EU summit leaders finally put together a shoring up plan for banks.

 

Participant in the summit meeting late Thursday early Friday agreed upon using the EU Stability fund reserves to lend directly to banks providing need liquidity.  U.S. rallies along with the global community Friday on the news.

 

Stocks rally to the close Friday adding 2 to 3 percent;  Dow up 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 up 2.5 percent, and the NASDAQ posted a 3 percent gain.

 

Stocks Ramp Up, Rally To The Close, Ahead Of Lots Of Uncertainty

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Stocks get a good start Wednesday, a day ahead of uncertainty to the end-of-the-week and weekend.  Stock indexes top out, trend sideways, midday Wednesday, as traders decide how to reposition for GDP and the EU summit.

 

A misjudged GDP number could create panic in the market, sending stocks lower quickly, especially if the jobless initial claims number is soft- a surprise good GDP could cause pause in stocks as markets also eye the summit.

 

The EU summit starts Thursday and God knows what will come of it.  Most likely nothing as these summits do not produce anything that could build global confidence.  It appears that the entire EU wants Germany to support them all- good luck with that as the countries needing funds think they are owed it and don't want to give anything in return.  Any good news from the summit could cause little substantial change in the markets;  bad could cause much more selling.

 

U.S. stocks rally to the close Wednesday with the major indexes showing near one percent gain.  Could be a very busy session tomorrow and Friday with GDP, the summit, and end of month & quarter trading.

 

 

Stocks Advance After Europe's Close

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

U.S. equity market got off to a slow neutral start Tuesday.  Traders await data and the EU summit.  Could see a pop higher later in the week as Shorts may cover ahead of weekend when summit news would catch traders unable to respond.

 

Stocks advance after Europe stock markets post mixed results Tuesday.  Either Shorts are covering, in an orderly manner, or there are some real brave traders out there pushing stocks up ahead of all kinds of uncertainty.

 

Stocks Sell Off As Markets See Little Resolution From The EU Summit

Monday, June 25, 2012

Banks got the expected downgrade Thursday as markets sold off ahead of the news on just about every bit of bad news imaginable.  Stocks do rebound somewhat Friday morning in zigzag fashion.

 

Stocks held onto gains Friday recovering some of Thursdays sell off.  But this week could be interesting as traders will want to see this positive ness continue, sending the major indexes even higher, closing out the quarter.

 

Monday futures show a decisive negative open set for at lease the morning session as U.S. waits for Europe markets to close;  Europe under pressure as little seems to be accomplished in trying to save the Euro.

 

There is lots of doubt about the EU summit as global stock markets sell off Monday.  What could be the last meaningful meeting of the Euro Area, that could eventually see Europe plunge further into crisis mode, as the contagion appears to be ready to leap to others in the Euro and the rest of the globe in some form or another.

 

The Dow lost 1.1 percent, the S&P 500 lost 1.6 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 2 percent.

 

Late Monday Moody's ratings service downgrades 28 Spanish banks several notches according to their website and news media centers.

 

Stocks Under Lots Of Pressure From Data, FOMC And Now Bank Downgrades

Thursday, June 21, 2012

The Fed sets the stage for a flat market Thursday while economic data sends stocks lower throughout the morning session.

 

The FOMC left rates unchanged as expected.  Extended Twist, as expected.  The FOMC appears to be hunkering down for the year.  Unless things get really bad it appears the Fed will stay on the sidelines until next year as most believe the Fed is all out of things to do except stimulate through words.

 

Jobless initial claims saw a decrease last week but charts indicate a troubled jobs market that could last for some time.  The chart shows a new upward trend developing that could indicate an increase in layoffs and a stagnate new jobs creation market.

 

Media gets wind of Moody's downgrade of big banks after the close as buyers step aside allow selling to take stocks into freefall Thursday afternoon.

 

Orderly sell off Thursday with the Dow Jones down by 2 percent, the NASDAQ posted a 2.4 percent loss, and the S&P 500 lost 2.2 percent.  Today's orderly sell off brought to you by FEAR.  More to come tomorrow, is likely.

 

Moody's announced rating action on several European and North American banks.  Asia Pacific markets are several hours away to first respond on the news;  U.S. already responded by selling off on that plus lots of other issues.

 

Stocks Rally Ahead Of The Fed- Short Term Forecast Goes To Neutral

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

With an eye on Europe, traders and investors go into Fed watch.  Markets wait to see if the central bank might let slip a hint or two on any policy change and their latest take on the economy.

 

Tuesday sees stocks rise one percent midday on hope that the central banks will act in unison to stem the ailing global economy and the debt crisis in Europe and in the U.S.

 

Stocks rally Tuesday as traders and investors looking to the Fed tomorrow to help the economy during the global slowdown.  Traders fear of Europe contagion eases slightly Tuesday while most markets await the Fed FOMC announcement and the Bernanke press conference. Stimulus of some sort, or at least a hint of one, is expected tomorrow when the FOMC ends its two day policy meeting.

 

The pre close model run changed the BLI, the short term forecast, to neutral.  Model data suggest that the erratic news out of Europe along with hopes for intervention by the Fed to the economy, like stimulus or Twist extension, is enough for markets to rally or sell off.  Models show it is more likely for stocks to continue higher but selling off cannot be ruled out.

 

Europe News Is Quiet Monday After Greek Election Now It's Onto QE Or Not QE

Monday, June 18, 2012

With the Greek elections over but not the responsibility for setting up a Greek government, stocks around the global rallied early Monday while the U.S., last to react to the news, set up for a negative start.  Spain and Italy retaking center stage as bond yields are quickly making it difficult to borrow money.

 

Stocks meander Monday not overly positive or negative with the Greek outcome.  While the Greek story is somewhat halted today, Spain and Italy are fast becoming the new European story to watch after markets deal with the FOMC meeting and a possible quantitative easing in some form.

 

If the Fed doesn't do things  exactly as markets are waiting on it could cause turmoil or elation.  Chances of QE3 are very limited but an extension to the Twist, most experts have said, is what the Fed could do at this weeks meeting.

 

The short-term forecast stands at negative while the long-term forecast indicates caution.

 

Shorts Covered Friday And Options Expiration Week Comes To An End Ahead Of The Greek Election

Friday, June 15, 2012

After Thursdays rally on news of a coordinated bank efforts by the central banks, stocks are setting up for a Friday positive open;  also Friday ends options expirations which could cause some volatility.

 

With Greek elections, this weekend, it would appear markets are positioned for whatever the vote turns out to be.  Any additional upside today could be Shorts covering if they haven't already.  Markets are expected to be flat as positioning should be mostly over with by the open, barring new news.

 

Either traders and investors are real brave or Shorts covered Friday with the averages gaining more than one percent.  Options expiration this week may have had some effect on the indexes but Shorts appear to have covered as this weekend could bring more Gloom and Doom;  it would be unlikely that a rally could come about Monday based on anything that transpires in Europe this weekend.  But markets are very unpredictable- stay tuned.

 

U.S. Stocks Rallied Tuesday After Europe Closed, Reclaiming Lost Ground

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

U.S. regains positive momentum after taking a quick dip into negative territory.  After Europe markets closed, U.S. equities take off back to positive territory and then some.  Of course Spain and Italy are still in focus but marketeers try and focus on local stuff.

 

Traders and investors refocus to U.S. economics and jobs data;  stocks rally to the close with the Dow in triple digits.

 

With renewed hope of a fix in the Euro Area, which is unlikely, U.S. stocks rallied to the close with the Dow Jones posting a 1.3 percent gain, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted a 1.2 percent gain.

 

U.S. Posted A Negative End Monday On Spain Bailout- Italy Next?

Monday, June 11, 2012

Spain reported over the weekend having acquired a Ä100B bailout by the Euro Area ministers.  Asia Pacific and European stock markets rallied Monday while the U.S. opened in rally mode but gave it back during the midmorning session.  U.S. major indexes reporting negative midmorning.

 

Bailout of Spain not a good reason for buyers to bid stocks higher.  Stocks looking to post negative results Monday taking back some of last weeks gain.

 

Traders have to be thinking who in the Euro Area is next- Italy is obvious and this whole thing to replay again and again.

 

Oversold U.S. Stock Market, China Rate-Cut, And Fed's Yellen kick Markets Higher- Test To Come

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Janet Yellen statement, last night in Boston, about additional stimulus has inspired buyers and Short sellers Thursday.  Futures ramp up early on the back of yesterdays rally indicating more gains for at least the short run.

 

China's rate cut announcement and Bernanke on the Hill, for testimony, is a major focus Thursday.  Stocks in Europe get a boost showing positive as did the U.S. opening-up in rally mode.

 

Jobless claims [chart] last week came in near expectations- flat.  Bernanke testimony added no more QE clues so stocks hold rally looking for Friday to see if it can continue.

 

Stocks gave up late in Thursdays session with the NASDAQ sinking into negative territory, while the Dow Jones Average managed to hold a gain, with the broader market ending virtually unchanged.  Fridays market will be important to see if the rally can continue or if it resumes its downturn.

 

Less Bad News And An Oversold Market Saw Stocks Rally- Can Bernanke keep It Going

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

No terrible news from Europe, mixed with an oversold stock market, sees equity prices higher Wednesday morning.

 

Stocks maintain gains with markets around the globe sending equities higher in an oversold market.  With minutes to go, the U.S. major indexes show one to two percent gain.

 

Stocks rallied Wednesday posting better than a two-percent gain on an oversold market and no terrible news from Europe.  Thursdays follow-through will be key to any sustained short term rally;  Chief Bernanke testifies Thursday and could spark volatility one way or the other.

 

Bernanke testifies Thursday on the economy and what he says or doesn't say could very well keep the rally going or sell it back down.  The U.S. and Europe will be all ears to his every word and inference.

 

Forecast Models See Possible Base Building As Stocks Held Positive Territory

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

A directionless market for stocks as the major indexes bounce around the unchanged line.  Reports are that Spain has directly asked for bailout money and the G7 will conduct an emergency meeting Tuesday to disuses Spain's request and crisis matters in general.  Markets are kind of looking for global central banks to coordinate stimulus.

 

Market Barometer model data suggest Tuesdays hold of positive territory could be used as base for a short-term rally.  Any halfway decent news could spark positive momentum.

 

Sentiment Remains Negative, Fear Of Europe Crisis And U.S. Slowing Economy Continues To Drive Markets

Monday, June 4, 2012- corrected 6/5/12

U.S. equity market took an early dip as markets try and discern what all the events playing out could mean to prices.  Greece and Spain exit fear and its contagion as well as global recession fear, not to mention Iran nuke situation and then you have the U.S. election/ debt issues;  and it's easy to see why markets have been tanking for weeks.

 

Stock prices bounce around Monday as traders and investors prepare for virtually multiple unknowns;  will the global economy suffer a recession;  will Greece and Spain remain in the Euro Area;  will the U.S. get its financial debt crisis in order;  will the U.S. go for a double dip recession;  what is the Feds answer to a stagnate jobs picture.

 

Have you heard of the wall of worry.  Markets love to climb it.  The only problem with this one is you need a boost up.  The boost may not be there yet.  The wall is very high, higher maybe than ever before.  So don't necessarily wait for that to happen any time soon.

 

There could be (no one really knows) more downside left- maybe through the summer months.  Or, we could be ready to climb.  This will be a very interesting month as lots could and will happen.  Stay tuned and watch the forecast.

 

U.S. Stock Market Dives, Probing For A Bottom

Friday, June 1, 2012

U.S. as well as global stock markets plunge on news that the U.S. jobs market slowed more than had been expected;  futures immediately sank and the sell off began when the market opened.

 

Job creation increased a meager 69,000 in May with the unemployment-rate ticking up to 8.2 percent.  Global markets sank along with the U.S..  The big fear now is global recession which gives concern for equity holders.

 

Midday Friday saw stock indexes moderately lower considering the ramifications of the data- stocks could be down double the moderate 2 percent show by the major indexes midday.

 

Stocks take a controlled dive Friday after the jobs report disappointed.  Controlled in the sense that after the initial plunge, stocks trended lower looking for support.  The Dow lost its gain for the year and the other indices a close.

 

Short term forecast continues to indicate negative going forward.  pops higher can be expected but until some certainty returns or a capitulation arrives, look for a downward slide, according to Market Barometer models.

 

Ignoring Data And Euro Crisis, Stocks Recover Most Of Session Losses But Unable To Hold Positive Ground Ahead Of Payroll Jobs Report

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Go away in May would have been a good choice if you were able to sell at a profit- like on May 1.  Stocks got off to the wrong food Thursday helped by jobs data and GDP.  Although stocks regain some traction during the lunch hour the S&P 500 was still in a bad spot.

 

GDP for the first quarter, second estimate, was reported by the Government at 1.9 percent, a drop from the previous reading of 2.2 percent.

 

Jobless new claims saw an increase of 10,000 new applicants to the unemployed ranks, continuing to be somewhat troublesome.  See chart of unemployment new claims sideways-channel, a trend that could continue through the summer months.

 

Stocks didn't like those data points or the ADP report.  Had little effect on futures but stocks fell sharply early with the Dow dropping into triple digit territory.

 

Stocks Succumb To Europe's Debt Crisis Sending Global Markets Down

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Back to the business of selling after brief pop higher yesterday.  Spain bond yields is the latest reason for stocks globally to plunge.  Midday U.S. was down over one percent but models saw a slight chance of a up tick for the afternoon session.

 

Going for the close, the Dow Jones Industrials are off by 1.1 percent, the S&P 500 off by 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ off 1 percent.  Same story, Europe licking its Greece and Spain wounds and until the story gets near an end, global markets will react with each piece of news.

 

Asia Pacific stock markets and European markets all sink as crisis in Euro land continues to hold global markets hostage.

 

Market Refocused On Economics And Earnings While A Hint On QE3 Sent Stocks Higher, Some Say

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Europe still struggling with debt issues not affecting markets in Europe or in the U.S. as the U.S. tries to refocus on economics and prepare for big data points in this shorted week.

 

Stocks take a dip midday but recover as markets try to refocus on economics and earnings;  with less than a half-hour to go, the averages are higher by nearly one percent.

 

More and more talk of QE3 is judged for a spike in the equity market Tuesday;  the media theme on QE3 is that it will come earlier than later this year because of the election process in the U.S.  Not that it will occur at all, but if the Fed deem it necessary- based on jobs and GDP- then it could come before mid summer- June July time frame.

 

Facebook shares continue to degrade on options Tuesday while law suite-talk piles up on just about anybody having a hand in the troubled company.  Facebook (FB) ended below $29 a share while after-hours selling was minimal.

 

Equities Turnoff Ahead Of Long Holiday Weekend As Traders Get A Head Start

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Its finally here- almost.  The holiday is but a step away.  Markets have been very tricky to navigating, trying to do deals is horrendous for some marketeers.  Markets in the U.S. look for a flat session Friday- oh please- and get started on a long weekends to rejuvenate.

 

Stocks meandered in morning trade Thursday looking for direction.  Asia Pacific markets ended mostly down while Europe markets ended positive.

 

Jobless new claims and Durable Goods orders had little affect over the markets.  Getting that time of the month to look forward to GDP and payrolls- may see stocks flat until then, all things equal.

 

With Monday a holiday and some big data points ahead, (GDP and payroll) traders and investors reposition with both eyes on Europe;  the Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ head for unchanged, seeking a neutral close.

 

Global Equity Markets Sold Off Wednesday While U.S. Stocks Make Comeback Ending Flat- Victory Of Sorts

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

With already huge losses, stocks continue the deep dive on growing speculation that Greece will exit the Euro;  that brings up all kinds of worries like what will happen to Spain- Italy- Euro Area- what will happens to the Euro currency- What will Greece do for a currency- how much will the Greek people lose and the big question, how will this all unfold.

 

Stocks looked very negative during the day with Europe and Asia markets ending well into negative territory;  U.S. tries for a neutral end as it streams higher going into the close Wednesday.

 

U.S. posted a mixed close making a comeback, rallying back from deep in negative territory;  NASDAQ posted a 0.4 percent gain, S&P 500 posted a 0.2 percent gain while the Dow closed virtually unchanged after being down in triple digits.

 

Two cable network stations say that the NYSE is trying to get Facebook to move to the NYSE just after days of trading on the NASDAQ.

 

U.S. Saw Selling In The Last Hour, One Day Rally Ends; Models Downgrade The Forecast Bias

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Stocks get off to another good start following Mondays rally but not without a dip at the noon hour.

 

Facebook still is very much in focus with investors licking their wounds while NASDAQ and the brokerage houses try to clean up their mess.  Facebook (FB) continues to sell off reducing the price to the lower 30's.  Europe also in focus but taking a backseat to Facebook for the time being.

 

Stocks make run at negative territory at the close posting mixed results as unsettled orders remain at the close.  Pre close Barometer models downgrade the Bias to negative on inability of the stock market to hold onto Mondays rally convincingly.

 

Sell in May and go away looks tempting as stocks are having a tough time of it even after a three week sellathon.  The forecast is one step away from indicating negative.  That would mean a huge chance of further declines for global markets including the U.S.

 

Fiscal Cliff Is A Done Deal For Now, It's Onto Earnings/ Outlook And Economical Data

Sell in May 2012 and go away would have been a good choice for the month of May.  Stocks have inched-up, from back in June of 2012 and the question now is will the market continue its lofty ascent or is there a pullback/ correction ahead.

 

The S&P 500 was down around six percent from the S&P 500 high close of 2012 towards the end of May.  How the markets perform from that point is going to depend, of course, on news from Europe and the Iranian nuclear problem- crisis to be?, as well as numerous other concerns

 

Models run multiple times daily to analyze news/ events and the effect that it has on markets, futures, and sentiment.  The forecast can change rather quickly, so stay tuned.

 

A little history:  The focus had returned to Greece, Spain, and Italy.  Markets worry that the Euro Area is becoming more unstable with regards to effectively, financially, govern its member nations.

 

Even though the second Greek election showed the majority was in favor of staying in the Euro, Greece exit from the Euro Area is becoming more believable.  Some strategists believe the exit could occur in 2013.  The latest bailout may not be enough to keep the country stable- unrest could pick up.

 

Here in the U.S. QE3, QE4, to the nth degree, was announced by the Fed along with extending operation twist and keeping the target for the Federal funds rate accommodative to at least mid 2015.

 

The quantitative easing (QE) surprised the markets in that QE could become an economic (IV) drip of market-sugar, month by month, as the Fed says it will purchase $40 billion in instruments monthly (probably mortgage-backed securities) for as long as it takes, an indefinite inflation builder.  Markets around the globe rallied because of Europe and the U.S. infusion of money.

 

The U.S. has its debt problems that don't seem to be going anywhere.  The elections are done as Obama will see another four years.  The big question is can Obama and the House get along enough to address some major problems.

 

The latest QE and stimulus will help the stock market in the long run.  Models indicate after the sugar rally calms down we could see a pullback/ correction.

 

There are big problems, hurdles,  enormous problems that could keep markets from advancing.  Here is the short version:

 

1. Big banks, countries, and cities have been downgraded.

2. Iran nuclear program.  Crisis to be is probably up next for the world to deal with.

3. North Korea missile program becomes more troubling for the U.S.

4. Spain debt problems that could escalate.

5. China, Asia Pacific, and Europe economies still troublesome.

6. U.S. budget- fiscal cliff.  Can Congress and the President get it together?

7. U.S. economic slowdown- stagnate jobs growth.

8. Tax increase in 2013.

9. Can business be inspired to remain in the U.S. and create U.S. jobs or will Government policy continue to expatriate jobs.

 

As for the Fiscal Cliff.  A vote on plan B, the tax bill, was scrubbed by the  GOP as it appeared there wouldn't be enough votes for.  Traders and investors had time to digest the news before the markets opened on Friday, a week ahead of the cliff. 

Traders and inventors where able to keep the sell off, controlled.  As it were, the week ended with the averages posting a gain.

 

It was onto the last full week of the year and Washington decided to go on Christmas break rather than sticking it out and keeping America from going over the cliff.  A no deal by Monday and it's almost a sure bet for the markets to tank- maybe that's what Washington wants.

 

Hello- anybody there in Washington.  It's the weekend and no deal yet.  Guess we could go to Monday, New Years Eve night, and as the Ball is dropping down they could strike a deal- or not.

 

The market probably will freak-out but most believe if there's a no deal it will be a gentle slid down the cliff in January with probably a couple cliffhanger's on the way down.  Does this feel like Europe's way of doing business?

 

Traders love this, it makes them money with stocks going in all directions at once.  Investors, hang in there.

 

Last minute deal between the President, Senate, and the House got a deal done sufficient enough to avert going over the Fiscal Cliff.  A deal was hammered out on New Years day with the House approving the measures late Tuesday (1/1/2013).

 

It's rally time as markets around the globe can now focus on earnings and the economy and all the other problems outlined above.

 

Since Thanksgiving week, the S&P 500 has gained near 9 percent, as investors and traders continue to inch this market up.  It is expected this Tortoise like market to continue.

 

Fiscal Cliff is done for now.  A vote to extend the national debt limit was approved in the House and kicks the debt problems down the road for lawmakers to deal with in the months to come.  February- March timeframe for another series of deadlines that Washington must deal with.  March madness is on the horizon.

 

Facebook missed out on rally by one day NASDAQ

Monday, May 21, 2012

Between the brokerage firms and NASDAQ and all in-between, retail investors get screwed again.

 

There's little doubt that fund managers and traders will get satisfied by those in power, but ask the retail investor what he/she thinks about that can't be written here.

 

Needless to say the NASDAQ and routing services have no comment or won't return messages.  Market Barometer got a retail investors log/ diary of the mess it caused this person.

 

All the analysts and market 'Talking Heads' wonder why the retail investor isn't coming back.  It's because every time they try, something like this happens, or flash crash, or just plain greed by the market players in control.

 

Here is the log/ diary (unedited) of this individual that seems to get nowhere.

 

Before the open Friday I put an order in to buy FB @ $40. When FB started I think the prices was up at $42? It hovered there for some time. I notice the low was $38.?? I saw the real-time price come down below $40 but my order didnít get executed. After some time I canceled the order so that I could go into the open market and decide to buy or not. The cancellation got stuck and I was left not knowing what to do. It stayed that way for hours and I called Fidelity to find out what happened. They told me that there was/ is a problem in getting orders back to Fidelity. I was told to wait. I did all day and finally called Fidelity back and talked to Jxx Hxxxxxx in Dallas. He said much the same as the first guy. He asked me what was the price when I tried to cancel. I told him around $41 something like that. He said to wait let NASDAQ get things straight and see where I stand when the problem gets fixed. time 15:52p ct Friday... (this paragraph was left out of the original publication)

I looked at my IRA and found that I did buy Facebook. I called Fidelity and told them I donít want them and explained the story to them. He said there is nothing that can be done as to order executed before the cancel go to them. So we now own Facebook which is crashing Monday morning. I wanted to protest it but Fidelity said they cant. )

0909hrs. I tried putting in an order to sell the stock at $38 limit. I saw where someone was bidding the stock up to $38 from around $35. I put the order in but got a message back 'the position to sell was not found...' I have a copy of this in the receipts printer. I called Fidelity they said something like it needs to be cycled tonight? That they would have to put the order in. I told him I don't know what I want to (do) now. I told him to log this problem in my file- I'm very unhappy about this whole thing. Now the price is down to around $33. So I don't have a clue what to do.

0918hrs. News media Friday said the market makers were keeping the price at $38.23, or so, that they didn't want the price to close below the IPO. I saw on CNBC Monday morning, just after the open, several screens that showed the price fluctuating between around $35 and $38. So I decide to try and get out at $38 hoping they would just take that. But once again I was denied access to these shares this time it looks like a Fidelity problem.

Monday 10:31a ct: Facebook problem continued: I need to find out who is responsible for my account- Facebook stock- being 'order frozen'. Friday. My orders got hung-up somewhere- Fidelity says NASDAQ. Monday I tried placing an order to sell and got a screen that said 'the position to sell was not found'. So I called Fidelity about this issue. So I have watched the price go from around $41 - $42 Friday then lower to $38's at the close. Monday midmorning at about $33 and still unable to trade these shares. Fidelity did say that they would place the order for me but I want to do that, I want to determine on my own time to either do it or not. I have been unable to place a Facebook order since Friday through Monday midmorning. I want to know who is responsible.

1:06p ct: I called Fidelity to find out who is responsible. Of course they wouldn't say. They said they would put the order in for me, I told him I want to do that, I should be able to do that, not rely on Fidelity to do my trading. He kept saying the same thing over and over. I finally said I need to make sure this gets into the record that I'm very upset that I can't get the answer to who is responsible. Told him I want to escalate this to his manager. I talked to his manager and basically the same thing- they don't want to point fingers. He too said he would trade for me. I explained the entire problem from the start Friday. The manager said he is going to put in a dispute to the fact that the stock is in my account. He said chances are the order got executed before my cancellation order go out. I told him that isn't my problem, that they didn't tell me the order got executed. My whole thing is- it is not my fault that NASDAQ or whoever screwed this whole thing up, that I shouldn't have to suffer because of NASDAQ problems. I told him I'm just a simple retail investor and this account doesn't mean much to them but it does to me and that I've been upset all this time from Friday through the weekend to now. He said he or someone will call back after review of the dispute.

Fidelity Takes The Initiative Reversing Facebook Trade:  It may take years to unravel just what happened and those that are responsible for this huge screw-up.  But for this retail investor, that appeared had lost out on the Facebook trade, informed Market Barometer that Fidelity backed out the entire trade and restored the account to back before that terrible IPO depute.

We don't know how many accounts will be resorted but we do know that Fidelity came through for at least this one individual.  I guess Fidelity is determined to keep its integrity and its name by definition- "strict observance of promises"- duty...  Kudos Fidelity...  (these two paragraphs were added on 6/2/2012 at 12:05p ET.)

Stocks Drown For A Third Week, Facebook Was Supposed To Energize The Market

Friday, May 18, 2012

U.S. got off to a flat start bouncing around the flat line Friday morning.  And if you put an order in for Facebook, good luck in getting a response back from your brokerage.

 

Seems like, according to sources, once you have placed your order for Facebook (FB) you may or may not get a confirmation.  Orders are supposedly executing but the link from the exchanges back to your brokerage house is having trouble getting orders through.

 

If you get frustrated not knowing what's going on and cancel- that to can get hung up effectively holding both orders in limbo.

 

That depending on how much your account is and the trade will have an effect of freezing your account not knowing whether which order gets executed or not.

 

Brokerage's advise to hold tight- but I would call your broker to get status of the problem.

 

We can add another down week to the already two week loss with Fridays market;  it was supposed to be somewhat positive or at least flat.  You have to wonder how much the Facebook NASDAQ fowl up could have cast a negative ness on the general market.  The Dow lost 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ lost well over 1-percent.

 

Looking At Three Weeks Of Losses Unless Facebook Can Rally Markets

Thursday, May 17, 2012

U.S. stock market futures setup for a flat open as traders continue to deal with the Greece crisis.  Jobless new claims data came in slightly short of expectation didn't affect futures.

 

Stocks slithered lower, took a dive at the noon hour but was short-lived as traders recovered some lost ground by early afternoon;  Europe stock markets posted over a one percent loss while Asia Pacific stocks saw a mixed end Thursday.

 

Can Facebook pull stocks back on its debut.  there's a lot of traders and investors hoping for a comeback.  If not, U.S. is looking at three weeks of losses for the equity market.

 

U.S. stocks end at the low of the session Thursday with the major indexes falling one to two percent.  Not much chance to save this week from the Bears unless Facebook can inspire buying of the broader market.  Tech hit the hardest with over a two percent loss on the day.

 

No Gain All Kinds Of Pain As Stocks Go For Three Weeks Down

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

What a difference a day makes, or not.  U.S. equity market got off to a good start but slipped to the unchanged line in the late morning session.  With less bad news and quarterly earnings nearly over, it's onto fundamentals- data and Facebook  IPO, for this instant in time- things can and will change rapidly.

 

The positive ness didn't last as stocks dip back into negative territory in afternoon trade.  traders reviewing FOMC schedule change and minutes from last meeting.

 

QE3 back on the table- has been all this time- but traders not responding, yet.  Wednesday saw positive session turn south with the averages posting negative results;  Dow down 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 down 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ down 0.7 percent.

 

U.S. Equities Turned South Tuesday As Thought Of Greece Leaving The Euro Area Took Buyers to the sidelines

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

U.S. got off to a slow start, dipping briefly into negative territory, then marching higher into midday.  Europe, CPI, retail sales, Empire State index, and JP Morgan trading situation all had the focus for the start of business Tuesday.

 

The broader market of stocks and blue chips give up a moderate gain settling at the unchanged-line while NASDAQ tech stocks sees a nice gain in the early afternoon session.

 

Buyers to the sidelines taking the equity market lower Tuesday after a walk on the positive side.  The thought of Greece leaving the Euro Area is too much for buyers as traders are now concerned with an S&P 500 having difficulties with support levels.  Traders could be repositioning for more downside risk.

 

The Dow Jones Industrials posted a 1/2 percent loss, the S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 0.3 percent.

 

U.S. Equity Sell-Off On Greece Eurozone Uncertainty And JPMorgan's Boo Boo

Monday, May 14, 2012

U.S. got off to a nasty start with the averages diving 1 percent at the start of Business Monday.

 

Major concern is the continuing saga in Europe with Greece now expected to leave the Euro Area, as discussion groups would have it.  JPMorgan latest downgrade Friday has media discussing more oversight from Government.

 

Uncertainty abounds and markets don't like the unknown;  Europe and the global economy is the top two uncertainties Monday.

 

Model data, this afternoon, indicates further downside risk for U.S. equity market exists;  the BLI, the short term forecast, was downgraded to negative this afternoon, before the close.

 

JPMorgan Set Tone For Friday And Probably Beyond

Friday, May 11, 2012

Stocks spend little time in negative territory Friday morning.  With all the bad news floating around - JPMorgan- PPI data- Greece- China data- you would think stocks would have plunged.

 

Failed trading at JPMorgan sends U.S. stocks to flatsville.  Stocks try to make a go of it but uneasy feelings on big banks had traders and investors worried.  With less than half-hour to go, NASDAQ was up by 0.1 percent, Dow and the broader market down by 0.3 percent.

 

Stocks Held Positive Territory; Flat End Is A Victory Of Sorts

Thursday, May 10, 2012

U.S. got off to a great start only to see things degrade over the course of the morning session.  Tech visits negative territory with the broader market and blue chips not far behind.

 

U.S. Stock market meanders off the session high, trying to maintain a positive stance, but trending lower towards unchanged.  No new news to spark trades one way or the other- so stock prices meander.

 

Stocks Fall On Greece, Spain, And Italy Woes; Euro Area Worries Are Back As Is Volatility

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Greece back in focus as issues with Greece's ability to handle debt crisis is worrying markets.  The worry is that these problems could move to Spain and Italy.  Stocks continue to fall as selling pressure is intensifying in an already, some say, overbought market.

 

The U.S. major indexes fell sharply Wednesday morning but like yesterdays market, stocks rebound after Europe markets close.  Approaching midday, U.S. stocks have reversed most of the early losses, nearing the unchanged-line.

 

Just like Tuesday's market, stocks come back trying to make it to UNCH.  Global markets trying to beat down the U.S. market but after Europe's close stocks try to make it back.  The major indexes fall short, closing with a loss but well off the lows.

 

U.S. Stocks Try For A Comeback; Post Well Off The Bottom

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Stocks plunge Tuesday reaching Dow triple digits early.  Europe, especially Greece, has traders real worried.  The safe bet is to sell and get out of the way of the falling indexes.

 

Traders try to make good on comeback, make it almost all the way back from 200 plus Dow down points Tuesday.  Europe ended well in negative territory when U.S. began its comeback with a steady inching higher to the close falling short by some 80 points. 

 

A no dip at the end could give clue to Wednesdays stocks market.  We could see a positive session Wednesdays pending EU news, of course.

 

Europe News Mostly Ignored Monday By Traders As Stocks Ramp Up Into Positive Territory

Monday, May 7, 2012

U.S. setup for a very negative open, early on, but had improved throughout the morning to start just slightly lower.

 

Europe elections in France and Greece set the tone for Monday's global markets.  Although Europe stock markets had improved and showed mixed results, Asia Pacific markets continued being pressured by global events.

 

The U.S. stock market takes Europe election news in stride, reverses direction, ramping up into positive territory.

 

S&P 500 and tech went positive Monday dragging the Dow higher.  Broader market posts a small gain as the major indexes huddle around the unchanged line.

 

Jobs Set The Tone For Fridays Trading

Friday, May 4, 2012

Futures were flat ahead of the big report of the month- April's jobs payroll report- stocks could become volatile depending on the number. Europe stocks are down anticipating a not so good number.

 

Jobs created 115,000, somewhat below expectation;  revisions are key and they where upgraded sending futures temporarily higher.  Unemployment rate moved lower to 8.1 percent for the month of April.

 

Midday stocks hold onto a better than one percent loss as trading today is mostly shoot and ask questions later.  The jobs data is so confusing that it's hard to determine what positions are appropriate.  So it's a lot easer to sell and wait.

 

Going to the close, stocks hold onto one to two percent loss for the session with the tech stocks doing worse.  This could be the beginning of the pullback/ correction that appears to be well overdue.

 

Traders Position For Volatile Session Friday Ahead Of Payroll Unemployment Report

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Stock move lower Thursday as traders reposition their portfolio for what could be a volatile Friday.  The payroll jobs report is due out tomorrow and conflicting signals from other jobs reports make trading choppy Thursday.

 

Market are worried Thursday ahead of the jobs report Friday.  Traders are unsure how the markets will take the report positioning themselves for a negative reaction.  Several attempts to reverse direction have failed sending the averages down half to one percent in the last hour of trade.

 

Dow Down In Triple Digits Makes Comeback To Unchanged; Tech Posts Another Gain

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

U.S. got off to an iffy start but midday reversal saw tech turning positive with the broader market following, but still slightly in the red.

 

China's manufacturing pick-up and hope for a U.S. recovery -stimulus- traders try to make Wednesday  six out of seven.  A not so good private jobs report sent the averages to an early negative morning session.

 

With less than a half-hour to go, stocks try for positive territory, led by NASDAQ stocks.  All the negative news hasn't stopped the U.S. stock market from inching higher.

 

Tomorrows jobless new claims might get traders attention- a big miss could derail the market advance.

 

Dow and the broader market made a run at positive territory but fell short of the unchanged-line.  NASDAQ stocks rose 1/3 percent, the Dow ended virtually unchanged, and the S&P 500 ended lower by 1/4 percent.

 

Euro Area and U.S. markets have been under pressure for months as debt and budget issues continue to be troublesome.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Germany, France, and the entire Euro Area along with the EU and the U.S. having a difficult time with debt and budget matters, had kept stocks in a trading range.  Traders and investors had little else to focus on through the Summer-Fall months and into Winter.

 

A 100B Euro rescue package for Greece was approved.  That and other related Eurozone news inspired the markets to rally out of the trading range.

 

But Greece had decided to conduct a referendum, a democratic vote by the people to finally decide on the mater.  Global markets plunge on the Greece decision to conduct a vote.

 

The referendum had since been abandoned and a vote of confidence was taken on November 11, 2011.  Greece PM Papandreou won the vote setting the stage for a possible calmer period as Greece and other countries reform the Governments.

 

Germany and France agreed upon measures to try and build global confidence but had a hard sell to the other Euro Area countries as well as the EU.

 

The week of December 4, 2011 was an important week for the Eurozone summit to make final plans to address the debt issues plaguing Europe and the global community.

 

Standard and Poor's Ratings Services provided the incentive to acquire a agreement among the Euro Area countries by threatening a downgrade.

 

S&P placed the Euro Area countries on credit watch negative and as much threatened to a speedily analysis if an acceptable deal wasn't acquired at the summit.

The Eurozone summit ended and the leaders put forth measures they believed would satisfy critics and the markets.

Most analysts didn't think this would be enough and believed debt defaults would occur.

Although volatility has settled down somewhat from the Summer-Fall months, models continue to show volatility could pick back up.

 

Santa had too much to do on Christmas, delivering presents, had no time for investors, sending the S&P 500 index flat for the year.

 

As promised, S&P Ratings Services downgraded most of the Euro Area countries and the stability facility.

 

The new year has produced no volatility, yet.  So far in 2012 we are seeing markets in the U.S. disconnect from the troubles in Europe.

 

Stocks have been grinding higher in a steady slow pace with little setback.  The S&P 500 index has pushed through the top of the trading range and is currently testing the outer limits.

 

Where we go from here is going to be based on earnings forecast/ outlook from companies and Europe for months/ years to come.

 

With the Greece debt deal approved and in the hands of the Greek Government to execute, it's onto fundamentals for traders or the next big thing to worry about.

 

The Barometer BLI, the short term forecast, was downgraded to neutral from positive suggesting a growing chance that the U.S. stock market will drop back into the trading range.

 

Day Two, Rally Continues As Google Reported In-Line Results With Banks Expected To Do Well

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Stocks ramp up Thursday as earnings surprise from Alcoa is still sticky.  Google is on deck after the close and could keep the rally going or quash it.  And QE3 is back on the front burner for traders.  Traders will tell you they don't like QE but show a rumor and its off to the races.

 

Jobless initial claims jump but still contained in channel -chart- that continues to indicate an improving jobs picture for the economy, albeit very slow improvement.

 

Manufacturing prices were stable in March (unchanged from February) while the core price (less food and energy) rose 0.3 percent.

 

Stocks continue to ramp-up taking back some of the previous sell off as the earnings parade gets underway with Alcoa handily beating estimates;  Goggle tonight, banks tomorrow;  watch out if someone disappoints.

 

Google reported earnings mostly in line;  stock was moderately higher in the after-hours session;  Google declared a dividend and a 2:1 split.  Banks report tomorrow and hopefully another batch of good reports can keep the rally alive.

 

Stocks Rally After Deep sell off, As Alcoa's Earnings Inspires; What's Next, Google, It's Your Turn At The Whipping Post

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Big comeback for Europe and U.S. stocks Wednesday as Europe debt problems ease slightly and Alcoa has inspired the globe with its earnings/ outlook.

 

Major indexes bounce around session high for most of the day but trending lower going into the close.  Question of the day.  Is Alcoa's earnings beat and outlook for real.  Any other company report able to back-up Alcoa's tremendous quarterly report.  As they say in the The Outer Limits TV series- Please Stand By...

 

Wont have to wait long as Google gets its turn Thursday after the close.  A good report card may keep this fledgling rally going.

 

Big Sell Off As The Equity Market Gets slammed On Economic Concerns

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Stocks got off to a flat mixed start Tuesday, as traders get over jobs concerns, for now, and refocus to earnings season.

 

Alcoa gets things going for earnings today;  Alcoa is important because of the metals, primary and fabricated aluminum, it manufactures.  Aluminum is used in a wide range of products and can be used as a gage of how the economy is doing and more importantly the outlook.  Alcoa to host webcast at 5:00p ET, after the close.

 

With Europe worries back to take stocks down another notch or two, a somewhat guarded earnings season gets under way that could, in combination with Europe problems, take stocks down throughout summer.  Midday U.S. stocks had already lost over 1 percent.

 

Alcoa handily beats estimates that could inspire the market Wednesday.  Asia Pacific markets and Europe markets, later this evening and early tomorrow morning, will give us a clue on how the U.S. will open.

 

Alcoa said earnings rebounded over the previous quarter on higher productivity and improving markets.

 

Income from continuing operations is $94 million, or $0.09 per share for the first quarter.  Revenue was $6 billion, up y/y, despite a nine percent drop in aluminum prices.  Cash on hand $1.7 billion.  Alcoa share price was up in the after market.

 

Traders Finally Get To Trade The Jobs Report, Looked For Reversal Midday, But Reversal Fails, Sending Stocks To A One Percent Loss

Monday, April 9, 2012

After long holiday weekend markets in the U.S. and Europe getting back to business.  A disappointing payroll number Friday, when most markets were closed, could have a negative reaction at the U.S. start.

 

Europe stock markets were mixed, mid session Monday, while U.S. gets ready for a busy week starting in negative territory.  The short-term forecast (BLI) was downgraded to neutral, last week, as the U.S. stock market appears to be ready for a pullback/ correction.

 

As expected, stocks sell off at the start of business Monday sending the Dow to a triple digit loss;  although trying to get off the bottom, stocks continue negative with no indication of a reversal midday Monday.

 

Stocks inch their way back off the low but still holding onto lots of red ink Monday, as traders reposition ahead of earnings.  Going into the close, the Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ are off nearly one percent.

 

U.S. Bounced Back, Closing Mixed Thursday, With March Payroll/ Unemployment Report On Deck

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Global markets, including the U.S., are still under pressure to sell equities.  The Fed shelving QE3, regardless of what traders say, hurts the bull market as selling continues for a third day.

 

Unemployment new claims drop 6,000, last week, to 357,000, continuing to indicate an improving jobs market -chart-, laying the ground work for a positive payroll number Friday.

 

U.S. stocks try for a mixed close ahead of long holiday weekend and the payroll jobs number Friday;  tech jumps into positive territory early trying to lure the broader market.

 

The NASDAQ closed up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 and the Dow ended slightly lower by 0.1 percent.

 

Dow's Triple Digit Loss Wednesday On Shelved QE3- Short Term Forecast Downgraded To Neutral

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

QE3 shelved by the Fed seems to be the catalyst for the global sell off, as markets around the world move into negative territory Wednesday, as most in the marketplace believe that a stock market pullback is at hand.

 

Stocks continue to sideways trade near the lows of the session as the afternoon model run proceeds to change the short term forecast (BLI) to neutral.

 

The Market Barometer afternoon model changed the short-term forecast to neutral.  Data shows the U.S. stock market, as well as the global markets, continue to degrade.  Although a pullback is near, several sessions of positive ness may be expected before the pullback gets underway.

 

Stocks turn in a loss for Wednesday but manage to improve slightly.  Tech posts a 1-1/2 percent loss;  Dow and S&P 500 post a 1 percent loss.

 

U.S. Stocks Tried To Make It Back From Negative Territory, But Ended Mixed

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Mostly expected GDP and jobless initial claims data saw U.S. futures indicate lower open for stocks Thursday.

 

GDP grew at 3 percent in Q-4 as the market expected while unemployment initial claims dropped 5,000 but ticked up because of revision.  Data pretty much expected saw little change in the opening of the U.S. stock market.

 

U.S. stocks opened Thursday's session well into negative territory, bounced around the bottom for most of the session, turned up in early afternoon, trying to end near neutral ground, the unchanged line.

 

Yesterdays model data showed two scenarios that could prevent or stay the pullback.  Even though a pullback/ correction will occur, today or tomorrow may not be the day.

 

One scenario indicated that if a couple of sessions of neutral, like Thursdays market, followed by a positive session, it could hold off the pullback.

 

The short-term forecast (BLI) continues to indicate positive, while the long-term forecast continues at caution.

 

Today's Negative U.S. Stock Market Prompted Concern Of Correction;  Models To Test Pullback Viability

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Global markets turn negative Wednesday, setting the stage for the U.S. to follow.  Stocks opened flat tuning mostly negative.  Durable goods data turned markets lower Wednesday as data disappoints.

 

With less than fifteen-minutes to go, stocks are showing red, but off the lows of the session.  Markets are bracing for a pullback but whether this is it or not isn't 100 percent.  Models that run this evening will shed light on the pullback issue.

 

Model data is suggesting a pullback could be underway.  One model shows the S&P 500 would have to get above 1418 before declaring a false pullback.

 

Another model shows that a couple of flat neutral S&P 500 sessions followed by a positive session could keep the pullback at bay.

 

The S&P 500, as with the rest of the U.S. stock market, is overdue for a correction.  How deep and how fast will depend on the news from the U.S. and Europe.

 

Asia Pacific and the European markets will be affected by the U.S. correction if and when it occurs.

 

Watch for the BLI to change when the models can confirm a pullback.  The short-term forecast (BLI) continues at positive while the long-term forecast continues at caution.

 

U.S. Stock Market Rallied Monday On Quantitative Easing Hope And Window Dressing

Monday, March 26, 2012

New week and hopefully continued upward trend for stocks as end of quarter trading/ positioning gets underway Monday.

 

Fed Chief Bernanke speech at the NABE boosted Mondays Futures market by hinting at QE3.  Futures spiked when Bernanke suggested further accommodative policy (QE3) to address the 'out of norm' jobs recovery.

 

U.S. stocks rally Monday as a QE3 becomes more of a focus for the Fed;  rally also brought to you by traders and investors trying to improve performance in their funds/ holdings.

 

Related:

The sort-term forecast was upgraded last Friday to positive

 

U.S. Stocks Close Higher Ending Global Equity Market Slump

Friday, March 23, 2012

Global economic concerns continue with Asia Pacific stocks ending Friday down, while Europe popped up to end modestly higher Friday.

 

U.S. equity market mixed in afternoon trade Friday with tech struggling near the unchanged line.

 

U.S. trying to end the cycle of negative ness Friday with a run to the positive side, albeit in slow motion.  Global markets have been in the dumps most of the week with the U.S. market last in line to turn things around.

 

The Market Barometer pre close model run changed the short term forecast, the BLI, to positive from neutral.  Models indicate U.S. stocks could continue inching ahead, possibly through earnings season.

 

The U.S. Market Tried For A Positive End But Got A Mostly Third Session Down

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Positive markets in Asia Pacific, but Europe markets were under pressure from China and European economic data.

 

U.S. taking its cue from Europe, opened in negative territory Thursday.

 

What was to be a bright spot- unemployment new claims data- didn't do much for the U.S. Futures market.  Claims chart continues to show job improvement in the U.S.

 

Stocks on the way back to neutral territory when a fresh dive lower into negative territory Thursday afternoon as global markets increasingly fear a global slowdown.

 

Market Tried For A Comeback But Dived At The Close, Could Cause Global Selling Thursday

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Early look at the U.S. open saw a neutral start as the market awaited housing data.  Asia markets ended mixed while Europe posted mild gains, mid session.

 

The U.S. equity market got off to a flat start with traders and investors looking for direction.  If there's no direction, the market could continue inching its way higher.

 

We had a good market going Wednesday when late in the session, just ahead of the close, selling took off, causing the indexes to dive.  Could cause global markets to get off to a nasty start Thursday, with the U.S. open  seen as problematic.

 

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