www.Market-Barometer.com forecasting the U.S. Stock Market


"Today's stock market forecast"


Market Outlook is a recap of the current and future condition of the U.S. stock market.

Indicates short-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Indicates the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias.

Indicates long-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Extended Forecast is a seven week forecast of the U.S. stock market.

Market Watch

Market Data/graph



Market Outlook

Extended Forecast

Stock Market Quote

The Memo



Leading Indicator

Barometer Chart





Portfolio Tracker



Morning Update

Stocks to Watch




Investor Concerns


Investor Concerns:

How to begin DRIP investing.

How to invest

Investing 101 for beginners

How to make a budget

Economy added 209,000 jobs.

Unemployment Rate 4.3 percent.

GDP +3.2 percent.

GDP chart 1987 to 2017.

Weekly Jobless Report.

How to tell where the market is going.

S&P 500 Forecast Model Study

Market Barometer 444's Model Forecast Bias Indicator

+ +

Each of the Market Barometer models feed data into various charts and graphs for a visual of the model's metrics, the internal data collected during a model run.

Occasionally, we like to upload charts and graphs to the website for our users to visualize just what the model data indicates.  Sometimes a picture is work- well you know...

One of the graphs we will present here today is the Barometer Forecast Bias graph which takes its feed from the 444's model.  The 444's model is responsible for determining forecast changes.  The graph is built using output data from the model, represented by three plot lines that interact with each other.  This graph has been altered for content.

Nomenclature:  Blue arrow points to February 1, 2011, the beginning of this study.  Green arrow points to mid-March, 2011, when the model indicated a short-term bottom.  Orange arrow points to the current plot as of June 24, 2011.  Red arrow points to what the model indicates as a top to the S&P 500 occurring in the month of May, 2011.

Barometer Forecast Bias 444's model (graph)

The graph is purposely kept small as plot data gets distorted if enlarged.  You may be able to increase the size of the page by manipulating the browser size.

On IE, you can do that by clicking View at the top-left on the toolbar, then click Zoom.

The Market Barometer Bias (Bias) is a Forecast Bias, not a market bias.

The Bias leads the Forecast, usually by at least one day, in the direction of how models have determined where the forecast is headed.

Normally, fundamentally speaking, if stocks are going to rally you would see a point, as shown by the green arrow, from which the plots move higher.  If the market was going to move lower, it would top out quickly and move decisively lower- not shown in this graph.

This graph shows a flat market going sideways, pointed to by the red arrow, extended out pointed to by the orange arrow and until something in the news develops to set it up for the bulls or bears, stock could continue flat and sideways through, possibly the summer months.

The extended forecast models do see the market ending higher by years end and could take off in a rally in the Fall months.

Click this chart to see an updated version of the 444's graph

Click this chart to see a version of the 444's graph that shows activity as of the close on July 8, 2011.  You'll notice that the plot (yellow) is approaching resistance level that Barometer methodology has indicated as resistance.  Getting past this point could mean that this rally is for real and that despite the forecast, stocks may be geared to move higher, that is, if the plot can penetrate resistance indicated by the horizontal white line.


Barometer resistance high-water mark held and the S&P 500 recorded Monday and Tuesday [7/11 and 7/12]as negative sessions indicating that markets [stocks] continue tracking sideways with the S&P 500 possible dropping as low as 1250 to 1280.


Market watch page also has a graph similar to this one that is updated daily that you can track.


But when the time comes for the Forecast/ Bias to be changed it will be reflected in the 'Bug'.  So watch the Bug, upper left top corner of all pages for change and at the Market Outlook page.


The Barometer Leading Indicator and log is located on the Market Outlook page of the Barometer Forecast.

The Market Barometer Forecast and log is located on the Market Outlook and Market Memo page.

The Barometer Bias and log is located on the Market Outlook and Market Memo pages.

+ +

Markets Home Page   Investing Home Page   News Home Page   Barometer home Page

Buy/Sell/Hold your stock   Barometer Forecast   Technical Analysis   Stock Market Forecast   Stock Quote

2017 Market-Barometer.com GDS. All Rights Reserved.
Last modified: 3/ 8/2017

Home    Advertising    Buy Used Computer Parts    Registration Info    Feedback    Site Index    About us    Terms of Use    Privacy Policy    ARCHIVES

Market Barometer,  Market-Barometer.com,  opinions and statements are not recommendations to buy or sell any financial instrument, including stocks.  Market Barometer opinions and statements should be used to educate and self-judge the condition of the general market place.  By using the site you agree to the terms of use and our privacy policy.