
For months stocks have been up up and away.
Most of the market believe a pullback is near, still. But as always, the
stock market can and will do what is least expected.
January Federal Reserve FOMC minutes
caused a hiccup in stocks in late February with the FOMC minutes indicating that
the committee is rethinking Quantitative Easing. Global stock markets sold
off with the U.S. seeing two days of negative sentiment. But as has been
the case after the knee-jerk reaction stocks put on a small rally regaining
lost ground.
Fed Chief Ben Bernanke to the rescue
as he Stumps monetary policy on the Hill, defending Quantified Easing as markets
weigh that against Cyprus uncertainty and the U.S. Governments continued
inability to get a budget deal through. Bulls won out again sending stocks
up posting gains ahead of more uncertainty.
A good payroll number for February
with a net negative revision for December and January caused stocks to rally,
all the while Sequestration kicked in. Many months of good job creation
numbers with favorable revisions, needed for the labor market and the
economy to recover.
Jobless new claims chart show a smidgen of
improvement but still looks like a very difficult recovery for the labor market.
The Dow (DJIA) and S&P500 continue to make new
highs, as the S&P 500 breaks through the longstanding October 2007 record
high. It's expected that testing will see a small pullback initially then
either blow by the high or pullback- It's also conceivable the index to dance
around the October 2007 high.
Europe is back in focus with Cyprus
bailout in question. Cyprus Parliament rejected the initial deal, the so called bank deposit
tax levy, but before rejecting it they had to think about it. The news
broke over the weekend so traders and investors were ready to hit the sell
button when the markets opened. So, markets around the globe cratered on
the news only to recover later in the week. Uncertainty equals volatility!
Uncertainty still grips some [global] markets
but the U.S. Stock Market shelved Cyprus and all of Europe's problems for now. Cyprus accepted Lender
agreement to close the bad banks and freeze deposits over $129,000. Banks
are open after weeks of being closed. For now the drama is over as the
U.S. stock market continues to inch its way higher.
The Dow and S&P 500 are making all-time highs
and most everyone is looking for a pullback/ correction. Guess what!
Stocks probably will continue inching higher.
*The NASDAQ is lagging this year and
could outperform the other indexes by years end. The tech heavy NASDAQ is
well ahead of the Dow and S&P500 over the course of the bull market, which
started in March 2009. NASDAQ* up over 86%, the S&P 500* up over 62%, and
the Dow* up over 57%. *data as of 5/4/2013.
As soon as investors figure
out stocks are continuing higher, they will rally the market, pour even more money in,
then it will tank. Well maybe not tank. Maybe it will pullback
slightly and then continue higher. Sell in May and go away wasn't the
thing to do this year.
It's now very clear that the Fed will
maintain monetary policy as long as data supports their position in purchases/
QE.
Once the data, especially labor-market
data, gets to a data point that the Fed will want to begin warning of imminent
policy change, traders and investors will reverse their strategy and begin
treating good news, such as jobs data, as bad news.
There will be a battle between those
that go long and those that short the market when they see the slightest hint of
stocks giving up. The stock market is well overdue for a pullback/
correction and Shorts know that. Watch Longs or Short to see who can win
the day.
Bernanke's latest press conference could be categorized as somewhat hawkish as
adjustment, or tapering to policy bond purchases could happen rather quickly if
the economic recover continues to accelerate. We could be within months of
the start of the tapering process. This is where the stock and bond
markets take good news as bad, from here on out.
Lackluster data will be good for stocks as well as the
Fed. Like a lower GDP than expected and a tempered jobless new claims
number will be ideal for the market. It would tell traders and investors
that the recovery is ongoing but it would also hold the Fed back from removing
or limiting that IV "sugar" drip. But watch out for a blockbuster payroll
number/ revisions and a move of the unemployment-rate lower as these will help the Fed to
begin taper, that would be a sell signal for stocks.
Earnings will continue to drive
stocks but more volatility can be expected when traders and investors begin
pricing in Fed Chief Bernanke's replacement.
Data also will continue to play an
important role but meager data-points will continue to hold the Fed on the
tapering sidelines. But strong reactions can be expected when data is
reported stronger or weaker than anticipated.
Data doesn't support action by the Fed when viewed by
a layman. But the Fed could begin tapering based on perceived data trends.
Although Bernanke as much as said that the unemployment-rate would have to be
well below current levels before monetary policy change- and that hasn't
happened yet.
The Federal Reserve has made it very clear, tapering
will begin when economical data reaches FOMC targets.
It's possible that tapering could be held off until 2014. Unless economical data makes big strides in the next couple months of
2013, bond purchasing probably will continue. It's not likely that
the unemployment-rate will meet their target anytime soon; the target
for the Fed funds rate (interest rates) will probably only begin to rise after tapering.
With the Fiscal Cliff (tax increase and
reduction of Government spending through sequestration) and the Debt Ceiling
'deal' that passed through to the President, by signing off on the Senate
construct, the drama will be replayed in January and February. But for now
its back to basics- data and earnings.
Ben Bernanke and company decided Christmas holiday
season would be a good time to begin tapering. Starting in January 2014
tapering by 10bn will begin. Interest rates -target for the Federal Funds
rate- will remain near zero for years to come.
Whether making the change now in December 2013 rather
than waiting until late in the first quarter is a mistake will soon be known.
The immediate reaction from the stock market was to rally but that could be
short-lived. Models have a chance that a move lower [S&P 500 index]
is about to happen or could happen sooner than the traditional
Sell In May And Go Away season.
The December Short Term Forecast remains at caution
but could be changed one way or the other depending on the markets.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
4/19/2014 |
2.36% |
2.38% |
2.68% |
Short week saw the S&P 500 recover all of the previous weeks
loss.
The Dow Jones Industrials also recovered previous weeks loss
while the NASDAQ came up short.
Data and earnings for the most part as well as Fed continued
assurance that rates -interest rates- would remain accommodative for months and
months pushed stocks higher.
IBM and Google earnings didn't stop buyers from running
stocks up Thursday as both companies reported shaky results.
Friday U.S. markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday.
No Summery Available
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
4/12/2014 |
-2.35% |
-3.07% |
-2.65% |
No Summery Available
TECH SINKS TRIES TO BURY
BROADER MARKET
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
4/5/2014 |
0.56% |
-0.62% |
0.42% |
Tech stocks got hit, took the broader market lower, but the
Dow and S&P 500 still was able to post near half percent gain for the
week.
Markets are getting weary about the interest rate increase
that more and more traders and investors see coming in 2015, as early as the
first or second quarter.
Earnings start next week with Alcoa reporting Tuesday.
Earnings could spark a pullback or correction especially if tech companies
underperform.
Forecasts remain at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/29/2014 |
0.13% |
-2.85% |
-0.47% |
No Summery Available
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/22/2014 |
1.48% |
0.75% |
1.38% |
No Summery Available
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/15/2014 |
-2.37% |
-2.10% |
-1.98% |
No Summery Available
Jobs
Data Wins Over Ukraine Concerns
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/8/2014 |
0.81% |
0.67% |
1.01% |
Volatile start to the week on Ukraine worries- Monday down-
Tuesday up with the remainder of the week focused on jobs data.
The economic recovery continues to be a so-so affair with
investors seeing a long time before rates are increased. But 'woe is you', the
investor, when that data during the summer months, maybe late summer, when the
jobs data really picks up and markets get real concerned over the economic
recovery getting hot, when interest rates, that near zero Federal funds target,
gets zapped.
Until better looking data points appear, stocks could
continue inching higher.
Not Much In Way Of Stock News This Week
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
Not much in the way of stock news.
Jobless initial claims -chart- higher than
expected and
GDP -chart- for the fourth-quarter was revised
lower. Kind of indicates a still somewhat struggling economic recovery.
But traders and investors like what they see, sending stocks
up. 2014 could be a somewhat similar year to 2013, as stocks inch their
way higher.
Forecasts remained at caution during the week.
U.S.
Stock Market Ends Week Mixed
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
2/22/2014 |
-0.31% |
0.46% |
-0.13% |
Stocks bounce around ending the week mixed with the NASDAQ
gaining slightly while the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 post a slight loss.
Holiday shortened week saw little conviction as stocks appear
to falter near records highs.
Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics end without terrorist
intervention.
Forecasts continue at caution.
Stocks on the
comeback
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
2/15/2014 |
2.27% |
2.83% |
2.30% |
Past two weeks saw a reversal for the S&P 500,
recovering virtually all of the previous three weeks of negative market
action that started back in the week of January 19th.
Big story this week was Janet Yellen testimony that pretty
much mirrored Bernanke's policy for the financial markets. Tapering to
continue while interest rates to remain accommodative for years to come.
World stock markets rally helping the global community to
maintain positive ness.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
2/8/2014 |
0.64% |
0.59% |
0.85% |
Pullback done for
now?
Jobs week saw stocks recover previous weeks loss with some
folks saying the pullback is done for now.
Olympics in Sochi, Russia got underway this weekend as
forecast models still indicate concern over security but not as bad as previous
model-runs. Forecast to stay on caution for now but could change as the
Olympics proceed.
Some stock market investors and traders see this latest
pullback at an end with next week back to normal- steady climb higher.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
2/1/2014 |
-1.13% |
-0.56% |
-0.41% |
Stocks Continue
Slump
Stocks again slump for the second week in a row with the S&P
500 being down four of the past five weeks. Models show that more downside
is possible.
The Fed FOMC continues tapering while Ben Bernanke leaves the
Fed being replaced by Janet Yellen. Janet Yellen continues her
current position thought the weekend, taking over the Fed Monday at the
swearing-in. Yellen will Chair after the oath Monday but does have the
power to act this weekend if need be.
Models indicate a tough road ahead for the S&P 500 index. Go
away in May may come early this year.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
1/25/2014 |
-3.57% |
-1.64% |
-2.64% |
Stocks Take A Hit
Stocks take a hit this week as the long awaited and overdue
pullback/ correction is, possibly, getting underway.
This is the biggest drop for the Dow since last May when
stocks corrected over European problems and the week when Facebook -IPO flop-
debacle occurred.
The forecasts are at caution and probably will remain there
because the stock market is so overdue for a pullback/ correction and while the
Olympics continue under terrorist treat.
Next week we get the FOMC two day meeting to see if there are
any changes to monetary policy. Footnote: Ben Bernanke leaves
office, Yellen takes over as Chief of the Federal Reserve.
Forecasts remain at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
1/18/2014 |
0.14% |
0.58% |
-0.18% |
Broader
Market Ends Mixed While Stocks Look For Direction.
Mixed market as stocks look for direction. Tech
-NASDAQ- stocks did well posting nearly 0.6 percent while the Dow and S&P 500
ended on either side of the unchanged line.
Short week coming up with Monday holiday and traders and
investors continuing to look for direction for the markets.
Short-term Forecast continues at caution as does the
Long-term Forecast; Bias stands at neutral.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
1/11/2014 |
-0.20% |
1.04% |
0.60% |
Markets
Move Cautiously Amid Jobs Anomaly And Earnings Start
Very slow week with tapering getting underway -this month-
and a big disappointing Nonfarm jobs report. A meager jobs reports shocks
most market players as something closer 200,000 was expected not a measly
74,000. Add to the confusion an unexpected drop in the unemployment-rate.
The conundrum has the markets wondering if December is an outlier or is a trend
setting up.
We could see a slow month until we can get some January data
to look at next month.
Earnings got underway this week that could be a catalyst for
sectors and individual stocks.
Janet Yellen was confirmed this week, she'll have her work
cut out for her and the committee in February.
The Dow lost slightly this week while tech and the S&P 500
made gains.
The forecasts continues at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
1/4/2014 |
-0.05% |
-0.59% |
-0.54% |
Another Short Week With
New Years Day Holiday
Another short week with New Years Day holiday, on Wednesday,
in play, that saw a slight loss for the week.
Next week will see the start of earnings season with Alcoa
kicking off the fourth-quarter report. Alcoa to report fourth quarter and
full year 2013 results on January 9, 2014.
Tapering begins this month while interest rates will stay
steady for years.
Forecasts continue at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/28/2013 |
1.58% |
1.26% |
1.26% |
Holiday Shortened Two Weeks With Christmas And New Years Market Closures
Short week with Christmas holiday and an early close
Christmas eve. Stocks managed to add over one percent for the week with
trading mostly slow.
Next week a carbon copy with New Years day markets will also
be closed. Increase in market staffing should return late in the week with full
staffing January 6, 2014.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/21/2013 |
2.93% |
2.58% |
2.41% |
The Big News Of
The Week, Tapering Begins In January.
The Federal Reserve FOMC has played Russian Roulette with the
economy and so far hasn't shot themselves in the foot.
Stocks rally on the news as investors look at 10bn reduction
in January to bond purchases as ok. Fed says the Fed Funds Rate 'target'
-interest rates- will remain near zero for years to come also helped sentiment.
Whether this positive ness will remain with investors is up
for grabs. Models still show a chance that stocks will turn lower after
this initial run-up ends.
Santa Clause Rally looks intact but January is seen as a
tougher market. May 2014 through summer months look especially tough.
Forecasts remain at caution, for now.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/14/2013 |
-1.66% |
-1.52% |
-1.66% |
Markets
Concerned The Fed Will Begin Tapering Next Week.
It's all about tapering. Markets are getting a little
concerned that the Federal Reserve FOMC will begin tapering its monthly bond
purchases next week.
It would be hard to believe that the FOMC would be willing to
play Russian Roulette with the economy at Christmas time when consumers feel
just ok about jobs and the recovery- consumers feel somewhat upbeat but are
still cautious.
Introducing tapering next week could cause a major sell off
in the stock market, taking the averages down to levels not seen for some time.
It would make more sense to begin tapering after the new year is underway.
The other reason to not begin tapering now and to maybe hold
off until even maybe March is it wouldn't be a very happy new year for Janet
Yellen taking over the Fed during a crises- It would make more sense to hold off
until Yellen has firmly taken over the Fed from Bernanke.
The Marketer Barometer Short Term Forecast was changed to
caution from positive this week.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/7/2013 |
-0.40% |
0.07% |
-0.03% |
Stocks make a comeback nearly wiping out the weeks loss with Fridays rally.
The Nonfarm jobs/ payroll report, although good, doesn't
appear to be strong enough to get the Federal Reserve FOMC to begin tapering.
The fear all week was that the Fed will begin tapering this
month. It would be hard to believe the Fed would begin tapering this month
knowing that the stock market probably would sell off causing a huge problem for
investors and the economic recovery.
It would make more sense for the Fed to leave monetary policy
as is until February or March timeframe.
Market Barometer models continue to indicate stocks inching
higher through the rest of the year, maybe through January.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/30/2013 |
0.13% |
1.70% |
0.06% |
Stocks go virtually nowhere this week as the S&P 500 gained 0.06 percent.
Monday and Tuesday was slow. Wednesday and Friday very
slow. Thursday closed for Thanksgiving holiday.
The tech heavy NASDAQ gained almost 1-3/4 percent while blue
chips added a tenth of a percent.
Next week should add a little more activity but markets could
be slow through the rest of the year.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/23/2013 |
0.65% |
0.16% |
0.37% |
Sneaky stock market continues higher, breaking record after record, as the S&P
500 posts positive for a seventh week in a row.
Dow breaks record high while tech heavy NASDAQ underperforms
for the seventh week in a row, although the NASDAQ has outperformed the S&P 500
by a wide margin for the year.
NASDAQ has gained 32.2 percent, over the course of the year,
while the S&P 500 is higher 26.5 percent.
Lots of data next week with Thanksgiving holiday Thursday and
a short session on Friday.
Stocks could continue higher through the rest of the year.
Market Barometer models continue to show positive for the short term, caution
for the long term.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/16/2013 |
1.26% |
1.70% |
1.55% |
A 'news' slow week saw the S&P 500, broader market of stocks,
gain for a sixth straight week.
Janet Yellen testimony confirmation hearing, on Capital Hill,
this week, was the big story. An even bigger story of the week is most of
the market has concluded that tapering is a long way off. No real
timeframe but we could see stimulus for some time to come.
From all accounts the retail investor has yet to join the
bull market and until that happens, stocks could inch higher until monetary
policy -stimulus and rates- is modified in some way. Most likely the Fed
FOMC will begin by hinting- the word games- that things are getting better.
Inflation picking up would be one, the unemployment-rate is a key indicator that
things are getting better when it gets below 7 percent.
Time will tell but whatever happens probably will not happen
until next year. It might be a big mistake to begin hinting at changes to
the policy when the economy ramps up during the November and December holiday
season.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/9/2013 |
0.95% |
-0.04% |
0.53% |
Stock have done well in the past five weeks. S&P 500 up
4.7%, Dow up 4.6%, and the NASDAQ up 3%.
A stronger jobs payroll report at first sent stocks lower but
after determining that the Fed probably wont begin tapering, until sometime in
the first quarter of 2014, stocks rose sharply, Friday, taking back the weeks
losses except for tech which posted flat for the week. Dow and S&P 500
stocks gained while tech NASDAQ stocks lost slightly on the week.
It is unlikely that the Fed FOMC will make any policy change
during the holiday season when typically retail goes into the black- when retail
turns a profit. It is very possible tapering wont begin prior to Yellen
taking over the Federal Reserve in February.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/2/2013 |
0.30% |
-0.54% |
0.11% |
Fed week saw no change in monetary policy. Data
continues to support no real action by the Fed FOMC until the first or even
second quarter of 2014.
If Government could knockdown party competition and get some
things done, they could inspire confidence and business in turn might expand
creating more jobs which would get the economy rolling again. But don't
count on Government, there is more budget fight left between the parties.
The long term forecast remains at caution while the short
term forecast was upgraded to positive last week.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
10/26/2013 |
1.11% |
0.74% |
0.88% |
More gain for the U.S. stock market. S&P 500 continues
higher for a third week in a row. Slow week with a flat September jobs
report and more earnings.
The Market Barometer Short Term Forecast was upgraded to
positive indicating more gain for the S&P 500 broader market of stocks.
Stocks are positioned for GDP and the FOMC next week.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
10/19/2013 |
1.08% |
3.20% |
2.41% |
It was the budget; the Government shutdown; and the debt
ceiling; nothing else really mattered, although, the market really knew there
would be a deal as even the Government wasn’t that insane to let the U.S.
default on its payments. The whole thing gets postponed until January/
February when the nearly whole process and drama gets its second wind.
Markets are now going to focus on earnings and economical data and company
specific news to move stocks around.
The Fed bond tapering process probably wont begin until the
economy gets better and that may not happen until mid 2014.
Annual company
budgets, for many companies, are on the January to December calendar as company
budgets are being prepared now in the 4th quarter for 2014. A guess is
companies will be hiring in 2014 to prop up labor for upcoming projects, new
positions, which will do wonders for the U.S. labor market and the economy.
Janet Yellen has been nominated and faces the Hill for
conformation to be the next Federal Reserve Chief taking Ben Bernanke's jobs
when he leaves in January.
Market barometer Forecasts continue at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
10/12/2013 |
1.12% |
-0.36% |
0.78% |
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader market saw
gains while tech NASDAQ stocks gave up a little breaking five straight weeks of
gains.
Janet Yellen nominated to be the next Fed Chief of the
Federal Reserve to replace Ben Bernanke in February.
The Government shutdown continues with Congress and the White
House locking horns over the Debt Ceiling. Appears a deal is being
conjured to kick the whole thing down the road into next month so we can worry
over that for another six weeks.
Earnings/ guidance is underway with little fanfare as all
eyes are glued to the Debt Ceiling and shutdown.
Market Barometer Forecast Models continue to indicate
caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
10/5/2013 |
-1.21% |
0.71% |
-0.06% |
Big story was the partial Government shutdown with the debt
ceiling default looming. No jobs report this week as agency that delivers
the report was shuttered.
NASDAQ records fifth straight week of gain while the broader
market saw a slight loss- Dow lost over one percent.
Earnings start next week with debt ceiling default in focus
for the entire week as the following week U.S. could see downgrades over the
weekend from credit agencies.
Volatility likely will pick up. Short and long term forecast
at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
9/28/2013 |
-1.25% |
0.18% |
-1.06% |
Mostly a negative market with the exception of the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ eked out a small gain to keep its four week positive streak going.
The broader market settled back and lost 1.1 percent.
It's now data watch for traders and investors, and is a focus
for the markets as the Fed continues to drill into markets mindset, that it is
data dependant to when monetary policy change begins.
Also the markets are focusing on the Fiscal Cliff and the
Debt Ceiling as well as Obamacare. A lot for any market to handle.
We're in the volatile season but really haven't seen any big
moves yet. Earnings(1) are also going to be thrown
into the mix starting in a short two week from now.
No forecast change this week so its caution for the week to
come unless things turn one way or the other; it will be caution for a while
longest.
(1) Alcoa kicks off earnings season on
October 8 with its 3Q13 earnings report.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
9/21/2013 |
0.50% |
1.41% |
1.30% |
Third straight week of gains even though Friday saw some
selling pressure; mostly buyers on the sideline.
The big news, which markets should have seen coming, from the
Fed- no taper. The FOMC has made it very clear- something the media keeps
twisting around- tapering will begin when the economical data matches or exceeds
FOMC model targets.
It's conceivable that tapering could be held off until early
2014. Unless the data makes a big turnaround, in the last couple months of
the year, bond purchasing probably will continue. And it's not likely that
the unemployment rate will meet their target anytime soon. And the target
for the Fed funds rate will probably only begin is rise after tapering.
So with weak data and the good old Fiscal Cliff- tax increase
and reduction of Government spending through sequestration- headed our way
-again- the Fed probably could hold monetary policy 'as is' for a while longer.
The other case-in-point would be, does Bernanke want to begin
tapering on his way out or will he leave it for his successor- Yellen?
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
9/14/2013 |
3.01% |
1.69% |
1.97% |
Syria air strikes being on hold helps steady markets.
Neutral -flat- economical data says tapering, most likely,
will be delayed until the October meeting. Tapering, when it begins, could
be a small amount to start with, so that markets don't freak-out as much- limit
the shock.
Traders and investors tread [surf the sweet spot] between
tempered economical data-points and the Fed getting ready to pull the monthly
bond-purchases tapering trigger.
The Fed FOMC meeting, next week, could be traumatic for the
markets creating a lot of volatility. The two day meeting begins Tuesday
and ends on Wednesday with a scheduled Bernanke press conference.
Past two weeks saw enough gain in stocks to almost take back
all the loss from the selling that started back in early August.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
9/7/2013 |
0.76% |
1.94% |
1.35% |
Short week saw the U.S. stock market make some gains.
Dow broke a four week negative streak. The tech heavy NASDAQ outperformed
both the S&P 500 and the Dow over the past five weeks- tech stocks are on the
move higher.
The big thing for the week was Syria air strikes go on hold
as the global community not backing the Administrations warmongering. The
other big deal was the jobs report that shows the labor market still has
weakness.
Fed bond purchase tapering appears to be shelved at
least for September as data points don't seem to be that strong.
Unemployment rate did drop slightly in August
while a meager
169,000 jobs were added to payrolls.
Now that markets are at full staffing, we could be in for a
volatile period.
The forecasts remain at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
8/31/2013 |
-1.33% |
-1.84% |
-1.84% |
Dow recorded it's fourth week, in a row, loss while the S&P
500 and NASDAQ recorded three weeks of loses out of the past four.
With earnings so-so , Syria and Fed tapering concerns on
traders and investors mind plus its about that time of year when volatility
picks up- we're in a very iffy period for stocks.
With more market participation after the Labor Day holiday,
when markets come to full staffing, we are almost assured of lots of ups and
downs ahead.
At some point traders and investors will hit on the fact that
a recovering economy means one thing for the short term- stocks are apt to go
down. Big data points can and should see a big responding stock market
sell offs.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
8/24/2013 |
-0.47% |
1.53% |
0.47% |
The big deal this week was the Fed FOMC minutes. The
NASDAQ and S&P 500 broke two week losing streak- Dow made it three negative
weeks in a row of losses.
As Bernanke has said all along, tapering of QE -bond
purchases- is data dependent.
If payroll/ jobs -the labor market-, GDP, and a handful of
other data-points are robust, expect tapering.
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On the other hand, if economic data still points to a
struggling economic recovery, expect no tapering action. That also would
be the case if the data continues, more or less, stagnate.
The other big thing was the NASDAQ outage Thursday.
NASDAQ went dark for hours, Thursday afternoon, that caused recording problems
for the major indexes and trading in general.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
8/17/2013 |
-2.24% |
-1.56% |
-2.11% |
Summery Not Available: Basically a boring week.
Markets could pickup in September when full market participation returns-
vacations end.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
8/10/2013 |
-1.49% |
-0.80% |
-1.07% |
Negative week for the stock market saw the
Market Barometer Short Term Forecast change to caution from positive.
Traders and investors are squeamish over the possibility of
the Fed tapering the bond purchase program.
Data suggest, so far, that it will be months before the Fed
tapers. But, the media talking-heads keep pounding the news that tapering
could happen next month, which it could and that's why the market can be up one
day down the next- depends on the news and who speaks.
More of the same market action and talking points are
probable next week.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
8/3/2013 |
0.64% |
2.11% |
1.07% |
The big story this week was economical data and world
markets.
GDP showed a slow recovering economy while the jobs report
indicated much the same- very good for stocks because this kind of data point
will keep the Fed on hold.
Well on hold for at least until the Fed changes, like
Bernanke out and someone else gets to be the Fed Chief.
Global markets helped the U.S. stock market as well as data
this week.
The forecast for the short term continues at positive but
model data does show a little weakness and the forecast could revert back to
caution.
The S&P 500 was able to break and hold 1700, a new record.
Since the bull market began, the Dow and the S&P 500 have gained 60 to 70
percent while the NASDAQ has gained nearly 100 percent.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
7/27/2013 |
0.10% |
0.72% |
-0.02% |
No Summery Available
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
7/20/2013 |
0.51% |
-0.34% |
0.71% |
Mixed market this week as U.S. stock market consolidates.
Earnings and Bernanke testimony highlighted the otherwise bland week.
Tech stocks hit a bump in the road with Google and Microsoft
earnings disappointment.
Next two weeks will see more earnings, GDP estimates, and
jobs data- sure to move markets.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
7/13/2013 |
2.16% |
3.43% |
2.93% |
Stocks continue moving higher as the FOMC has indicated
quantitative easing/ bond purchases are here to stay as long as economical data
supports intervention by the Federal Reserve. Data supports the notion
that the Fed is sidelined from tapering.
Market Barometer models upgraded the short term forecast to
positive from caution. Model data suggest a Bias upgrade could be next if
the stock market continues in a positive mode.
Earnings got underway with Alcoa setting the stage for a good
reporting period. Markets don't have to worry about the Fed for at least
the short term so traders and investors are concentrating on earning and
especially company outlook for the current quarter.
World stock markets did well this week as most Asia Pacific
and European markets are pinned to the U.S. economy and how the Central Banks
modify monetary policy.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
7/6/2013 |
1.51% |
2.22% |
1.59% |
Stocks ramp up making a nice gain for the second week in a
row. The big deal this week was the jobs report.
ADP private payrolls and jobless initial claims data was near
expectations. Nonfarm payroll jobs report came in better than expected but was
not a blow-away, robust, number.
The
195,000 new jobs added to the economy in June
shows that the recovery is making headway but wasn't a blowout number. The
Fed will be kept at idle as long as the data is tame enough to keep the FOMC on
the sidelines.
May revision was upbeat and if in August June's 195,000 jobs
is revised higher, then traders might become edgy. As long as economic
data is tame the Fed might be kept on the sidelines.
Stocks will have a great chance of continuing higher as long
as the data is tame, the Fed kept at idle, and earnings show companies are doing
well.
Earnings will get underway with Alcoa next week as traders
and investors will key-off company outlook as well the bottom line.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
6/29/2013 |
0.76% |
1.38% |
0.89% |
U.S. stock market took a bad start-of-week, turned it into a
positive one by weeks end.
A global sell off Monday saw world stock markets tank like
there would be no tomorrow. But as is the norm, stocks rebound midweek
with a slight pullback on Friday.
We are in that part of the economic recovery that will see
good economical data -news- seen as bad news for the stock market.
It's onto earning which could also cause volatility.
For now the forecasts continue a caution.
China's stock market, the SSE Composite, trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange,
sold off over 5 percent Monday causing the rest of Asia Pacific and European
markets, as well as the Americas, to sell off Monday.
GDP first-quarter came in below estimates, gave markets a boost as traders were
looking for signs that would hold the Fed from tapering.
Next big thing will be the Nonfarm payroll and unemployment-rate report next
week. Any real good news here could cause more selling.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
6/22/2013 |
-1.77% |
-1.92% |
-2.08% |
No Text Available
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
6/15/2013 |
-1.16% |
-1.30% |
-1.00% |
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W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
6/8/2013 |
0.90% |
0.41% |
0.80% |
Last minute reprieve by the Jobs Report saw stocks surge,
Friday, breaking two weeks of negative results.
The Market Barometer Short-term Forecast was downgraded to
negative on Tuesday. Models indicated further weakness likely in the
equity.
Markets are beginning the transition from buy the good news,
to sell the good news. Market participants fear a tightening of the Fed's
monetary policy by reducing bond purchases or by hiking the target of the
Federal Funds Rate. The rate now is zero to1/4 percent.
U.S. stock market spent most of the week in negative
territory. Stocks shot up Friday on the payroll jobs report that came in
slightly higher than expected, but was well off what could be considered a
robust recovery.
A robust recovery could be signaled if jobs created were more
in the range of around 200,000 to 250,000 jobs per month, for several
months running. As the
jobless initial claims chart shows, the labor
market recovery continues to struggle which keeps the Fed a bay.
Even though Fridays rally was seen as very bullish, the short
term forecast will remain at negative for at least a couple more sessions.
Markets, both stocks and bonds, as well as the commodities market could increase
in volatility over the next few weeks.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
6/1/2013 |
-1.22% |
-0.08% |
-1.13% |
Second negative week for the stock market as traders and
investors worry over Fed tightening policy that some see as approaching.
This is the first back-to-back negative week for the S&P 500
since November 2012. A short week as Monday holiday gave U.S. market
players time to ponder Fed monetary policy.
Volatility is picking up as Shorts are eager to jump on every
little dip, knowing that the market is a little top heavy. A pullback
could be getting underway. This coming week will tell. Jobs data
coming up could add to volatility.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
5/25/2013 |
-0.33% |
-1.14% |
-1.07% |
A little setback for stocks this week, putting a dent in the
previous four week rally.
Stocks consolidated, resting from weeks of rallying. A
somewhat top-heavy market could see more of a pullback, even a correction, in
the coming weeks.
Fed Chief Ben Bernanke stood by FOMC monetary policy saying,
data, especially labor market data, will be key in any forthcoming monetary
policy change. We could be entering a phase of the stock market where good
economical news becomes bad news for the stock market.
The theory is, better the economical data --economic
recovery improving-- the quicker the Fed will pullback on stimulus.
Stimulus, that sugar high traders like --free money-- when it leaves
the market, markets can get withdrawal and players are likely to hit the sell
button at any hint of Fed tightening.
Jobs data this coming week and next could increase
volatility. The Short and Long term forecasts continue to indicate
caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
5/18/2013 |
1.56% |
1.81% |
2.06% |
Another prosperous week with the U.S. stock market continuing
to rally.
Barometer models had the market consolidating this week and
if you count in hours, not days, I guess we had a consolidation of sorts, in
this 'go for broke' stock market.
Barring really bad news, stocks appear to be on a mission.
Go higher at all costs. It appears that the slightly bad economic news
means that Quantitative Easing is in play for some time to come, with low
interest rates seen for years, as long as the unemployment rate remains elevated
which
Jobless Initial Claims data- chart- shows.
The Market Barometer Forecasts remains at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
5/11/2013 |
0.96% |
1.71% |
1.19% |
Stocks continue to inch higher for a third week in a row.
Three week totals are impressive if you were long this market. Nearly 4
percent higher for the Dow stocks, the S&P 500 broader market saw a 5 percent
gain, and the NASDAQ tech stocks saw 7 percent gain.
Consolidation appeared to be getting underway Friday that
could see stocks flat next week. A pick up in data for the coming week
could intensify consolidation. A pullback/ correction seems to be the last
thing on the markets mind as more inching long higher is seen by most.
The Short-term and Long-term forecasts continue at caution.
A caution forecast means that stocks could go either way but in this case
appears higher. Caution means be cautious, its not a bad forecast nor
necessarily good.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
5/4/2013 |
1.78% |
3.01% |
2.03% |
Great week for stocks as Wednesday saw a down day on ADP jobs
report but both jobless new claims and nonfarm payroll came in better than
expected, sending stocks up for a second week in a row.
FOMC meeting saw no action as expected. The week was
centered around jobs- ADP, jobless initial claims, and nonfarm payroll-
unemployment reports.
Stocks keep grinding higher with a pullback or correction on
everybody's mind. The Barometer forecasts continue at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
4/27/2013 |
1.13% |
2.27% |
1.73% |
Slow week with little for markets to trade on. Tech
earning boosted stocks early in the week while economical data did little ether
way.
A fake AP Twitter headline produced a dip in the markets but
recovered rather quickly. Global markets were rather positive all week,
helping the U.S. market.
First read of GDP for the First Quarter saw a
slight miss but didn't seem to affect the markets.
Thursdays jobless new claims data continues to
show a stagnate labor market which will probably show up in Aprils payroll
report.
This week saw a partial recovery from the previous weeks
loss.
The Market Barometer forecast continues at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
Earnings misses and beats from tech heavyweights saw a basic
wash with respect to earnings reaction by the stock market. Terror attacks
and Waco explosion set traders and investors on alert for most of the week.
The week got off to a bad start on China data and gold's fast
drop- big sell off in gold put traders on alert- other commodities also took a
hit Monday.
Asia Pacific and European stock markets all took a hit early
in the week. The U.S. took back some of Mondays loss on Tuesday.
By midweek the Boston explosions, Government letters tampered
with and West Texas explosion had markets concerned with traders and investors
glued to media displays.
Shorts probably had a lot to do with the ups and downs of the
week as the indexes ended up pretty much where they were two weeks ago.
Volatility is picking up which could mean a possible direction change. The
forecasts continue at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
4/13/2013 |
2.04% |
2.82% |
2.28% |
The theme this week was no real bad news. The not
real-bad-news of the week was the jobless initial claims data. Even though
the number came in about as expected, maybe a little better, the data- chart-
continues to show a very difficult labor market- recovery. For the labor
market that is not-so-good but for companies it is what they are doing to hold
cost down.
Investors like that because it means the Fed will hold rates,
as is, and keep QE coming down the pike, an economical sugar-drip, like an IV,
that the market loves- free money.
A great week for stocks as the S&P 500 had its best week
since early January. Meanwhile, the market is still looking for a pullback
that never seems to get here.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
4/6/2013 |
-0.09% |
-1.95% |
-1.01% |
Dow and S&P 500 indexes making record highs but not holding
onto them as jobs data became troubling for the markets.
Markets were doing ok until the ADP report came out signaling
possible trouble ahead. Not much confidence in that report didn't really
have markets worried. But then came jobless claims data that got the
markets attention. ADP, jobless initial claims, and nonfarm payroll
reports gave markets concern.
The final straw was the payroll jobs report for March, a
meager 88,000 new jobs created, when the market was looking for more like
200,000.
Stocks took a dive early Friday but like always recovered,
inching its way back, but still took a loss for the week.
Just in time, next week, for earnings to start over.
Alcoa gets thing going Monday that could set the tone for the week. A
second week of losses in a row would be troubling at least for the short term.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/30/2013 |
0.46% |
0.69% |
0.79% |
What a ho-hum week. Cyprus still has a slight hold on
trading, but the market still goes higher.
GDP and
jobless initial claims data was slightly lower
than expected, but the market goes higher. Nowheresville on the U.S.
budget and North Korea is still threatening, but the market goes higher.
No fear takes the S&P 500 to new record Thursdays, there's
just no stopping this market. Most all market talking-points have the
market ready for a pullback, but the market probably will go higher, at least
until May. The old saying 'sell in May and go away', but the market
probably will go higher.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/23/2013 |
-0.01% |
-0.11% |
-0.23% |
It was all about Cyprus and the Fed this week. Stocks
retreated slightly for the week as the little country than wont so far hasn't.
The bailout to Cyprus banks is contingent on Cyprus taxing
bank depositors so that Cyprus banks can get the bailout money in order for the
banks to stay in business. Well, Cyprus Government said NOT. So now
over the weekend an ultimatum- do or die.
Stay tuned as what happens in this small country could have
major consequences for the EU and our markets. The Fed FOMC met, kept
monetary policy steady- no change- they did say that the recovery is mending.
Data coming up next week can move markets. As of this
week and going into next week the forecast continues at caution but is subject
to change.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/16/2013 |
0.81% |
0.15% |
0.62% |
Positive week with no big newsmaker, either way.
President on the Hill trying for a Congress budget deal with little luck.
Economic data so so. Earnings winding down. Dow Jones Industrial
average index (DJIA) breaking records nearly every day. S&P 500 now within
striking range of its record high. The market should at least test the
October 2007 S&P 500 high before pulling back, that would be somewhat normal.
All indication are that a pullback is at hand- next week should be interesting.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/9/2013 |
2.16% |
2.34% |
2.16% |
Another big week for the stock market. That makes three
big weeks of gains for stocks this year. Sequestration kicked in as the
Government begins general budget cuts because the Administration and Congress
can't or wont agree to a budget.
Stocks rally Tuesday and continue throughout the week on
little good news. Nonfarm payroll did come in good for February, above
expectations, but revisions for December and January saw a net negative.
Although February's jobs creation number was good, you would need many month of
that kind of number to see the labor market turnaround robustly. Next
several month could be tough for payroll -jobs- as sequestration kicks in along
with tax hike could cause the jobs number to be difficult to deal with in the
coming months.
Another bit of good news is that big banks passed the Fed's
stress test. The test assures that big banks can handle a deep recession.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
3/2/2013 |
0.66% |
0.27% |
0.20% |
Europe back in focus this week with the Italian election
uncertainty causing some problems in the markets.
After initial reaction Monday sending stocks down, stocks
bounce back Tuesday just in time for Bernanke to keep the positive sentiment
going by Stumping monetary policy on the Hill. But wait, Government got
there two cents in with a no deal on the budget, whereas, now markets get to
think about Sequestration. So they do and sell off Thursday.
But as is the norm, the buyers come back and push the stock
market higher to post a nice gain for the week.
Barometer models downgraded the Short Term Forecast to
caution, Friday afternoon, as data suggest the risk is higher for stocks to
decline rather than advance. The downgrade could be short-lived depending
on how marketeers handle next week.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
2/23/2013 |
0.14% |
-0.93% |
-0.26% |
Short week as Monday U.S. markets were closed for President's
Day holiday that cut trading down to four sessions for the week. The March
higher got an interruption midweek when the Fed FOMC minutes release indicated
that the Fed is rethinking Quantitative Easing. Buyers were sidelined for
two sessions but made a comeback Friday with a small rally. Not enough to
keep the averages moving higher, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended with a slight loss
for the week while the Dow Jones average saw a slight gain.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
2/16/2013 |
-0.08% |
-0.06% |
0.12% |
Boring: A very flat market. S&P 500 eked out a
small gain while the Dow and the NASDAQ slipped slightly for the week.
Most everyone believes a pullback is at hand. State of the Union was about
the only thing happening this week. Earnings and data was pretty much
boring as well. Seven week streak is in tack for the S&P 500. S&P
500 now has 8.11 percent gain for the period.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
2/9/2013 |
-0.11% |
0.49% |
0.33% |
Another positive week for tech and the broader market but the
Dow- Blue Chip stocks- fell slightly. Tech and the broader market- S&P
500- added a sixth week of gains. No real good or bad news. Earning
about Par for the season.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
2/2/2013 |
0.82% |
0.94% |
0.68% |
The big story this week was the revisions to past months
nonfarm payroll jobs report. Much greater jobs creation than first
reported back for November and December. U.S. rallies to offset minor
weekly loss. The big bad news was the unexpected contraction in GDP for
the fourth quarter 2012. Most believe it will get revised higher in
February's report. S&P 500 now has five weeks of gains with the prospect
of further gains ahead.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
1/26/2013 |
1.79% |
0.48% |
1.14% |
Short week with Monday closed for holiday. Stocks
continue higher this week now that we're past the Cliff, for now. It's all
about earnings and economical data. With the exception of a very bad Apple
stock-price-day, investors and traders continue sending stocks higher. The
major indices now show four straight weeks of gains with the S&P 500 up nearly
7-percent.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
1/19/2013 |
1.19% |
0.29% |
0.94% |
A very slow but productive week. If you think this is a
dull market, look again. The S&P 500 is up nearly 9-percent since around
Thanksgiving. More of the same is expected if no big bad news to derail
this Tortoise market. Good earnings/ outlook and economical data in the
U.S. and Asia Pacific economies helped the global markets.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
1/12/2013 |
0.40% |
0.77% |
0.38% |
Added a little to last weeks rally. Appears we are
consolidating while we go through the start of earnings season. Alcoa
starts off the season with a good outlook. The Short Term Forecast was
upgraded to positive on model data suggesting a more calmer period while we go
through earnings.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
1/5/2013 |
3.81% |
4.73% |
4.51% |
Big gains this week in the U.S. stock market, as well as
other global markets, as the Fiscal Cliff deal gets done for at least a couple
months, when we get to do this over again. S&P 500 gains 4-1/2 percent
this week more than any week in 2012. It's onto earnings season with Alcoa
next week. Focus will be on earnings/ outlook and economical data.
The Fiscal Cliff deal was good enough to get the markets past the cliff until
March when we get to go through more political swings in the market. As of
this week the forecast continues at caution.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/29/2012 |
-1.93% |
-2.02% |
-1.95% |
The big story this week is no deal- yet. This weekend
and Monday is it. It's over the cliff we go if Washington can't get it
together. What will the markets do is the big question. If we get a
deal, of sorts, we could see a ramp-up followed by a pullback/ correction.
If no deal, maybe a mild sell-off and sideways until Washington goes to the next
budget level in January. Volatility could pick up in January. Keep
an eye on the forecast.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/22/2012 |
0.44% |
1.68% |
1.19% |
U.S. traders and investors took half of the weeks gain back
Friday when news of the Fiscal Cliff tax plan vote was scrubbed by the House.
Market futures dived on the overnight news but cooler heads prevailed and the
U.S. stock market lost a fraction of what it could have. Asia Pacific and
European markets took the news calmly, too. Markets around the world are
left with a "cliffhanger" not really knowing what will happen in the next couple
of days before the economy and budget goes over the cliff.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/15/2012 |
-0.15% |
-0.21% |
-0.31% |
Markets real uncertain to what is going to happen with the
Fiscal Cliff. Companies are already doing things, like special dividend
payments, to position themselves and their shareholders for either going over
the cliff or averting it. Only a couple of weeks left in the year and most
analysts believe the Government wont let this economy, as fragile as it is, take
another huge hit. Most believe that a last minute deal will avert the
cliff or we'll go over the cliff but get saved from a terrible crash by
Congressional magic.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/8/2012 |
1.00% |
-1.07% |
0.14% |
It's sill all about the Fiscal Cliff. Until the Fiscal
Cliff gets a resolution, markets will continue flat trading. Dow did well
this week but Apple Inc. holds back the broader market and tech. Data this
week was so- so. Jobs data was flat at best.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
12/1/2012 |
0.13% |
1.46% |
0.50% |
It was all about the Fiscal Cliff this week. Each news item
contradicting the previous news. Overall, stocks show moderate gain for the week
as markets expect a Fiscal Cliff Budget deal by Christmas. GDP advanced slightly
but jobs continues to be very weak. Housing data picked up as most believe the
housing market has bottomed.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/24/2012 |
3.32% |
3.94% |
3.59% |
It appears that the White House and Congress are talking
Fiscal Cliff. Less concern by traders and investors saw stocks rise over
Thanksgiving week. Housing data helps a little but jobs data still a concern. Black Friday results not in yet so don’t know how that will play in the coming
week.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/17/2012 |
-1.78% |
-1.78% |
-1.45% |
The big story is the U.S. fiscal cliff and Mideast unrest had
markets down. Also traders believe taxes will go up next year also put a damper
on trading. If that wasn't enough, the economy sucks, jobs- layoffs jump and the
overall global economy is in trouble. With all that is wrong stocks so far are
holding up.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/10/2012 |
-2.11% |
-2.58% |
-2.42% |
Big downer of a week as Obama gets reelected. Now markets get
to turn to fiscal cliff and the stagnate economy- very little jobs growth.
Problems that markets will have to deal with: Big banks, countries, and cities
being downgraded; the Iranian nuclear problem- crisis to be? Greece exit from
the Euro Area- it could happen; Spain debt problem that could escalate; China
GDP slowing as well as Asia Pacific and Europe; U.S. budget- fiscal cliff; U.S.
economic slowdown- stagnate jobs growth; Tax increase in 2013?
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
11/3/2012 |
-0.10% |
-0.18% |
0.17% |
Markets were closed Monday and Tuesday because of hurricane
Sandy. The brief week saw a rally and a sell off as markets prepare for next
weeks President election. Nonfarm payroll jobs for October came in better than
expected but the unemployment-rate increased.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
10/27/2012 |
-1.77% |
-0.58% |
-1.48% |
Caterpillar earnings outlook disappointed markets. Earnings
season, so fare, is ok but company forecast/ outlook are gloomy, at best. The
final presidential debate saw Obama catch up to Romney and the Fed FOMC did
little from their previous meeting- no changes. Market Barometer models see
tough times ahead for equities. The short term forecast was downgraded to
negative. Models see equity market tired and a pullback/ correction could be
near.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
10/20/2012 |
0.13% |
-1.23% |
0.34% |
Week started out great with a rally Monday and follow-on
Tuesday. By midweek stocks came under pressure because of IBM and Intel,
followed on by Google, all missing estimates/ outlook. Jobless initial claims
had a big increase which didn’t settle well with markets. Second presidential
debate saw Obama catch up to Romney in debate performance which saw markets cool
slightly.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
10/13/2012 |
-2.08% |
-2.96% |
-2.23% |
IMF downgrades the global economic outlook. Earnings season
underway with forecast warnings. S&P 500 has virtually gone nowhere for the past
month. Flat trading expected to continue.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
10/6/2012 |
1.28% |
0.64% |
1.40% |
First presidential debate, Romney did well. Jobs created for
September came in as expected- unemployment rate drops. Europe problems ongoing.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
9/29/2012 |
-1.05% |
-2.00% |
-1.33% |
Back to iffy news from Europe, set the tone for the week. GDP
dropped lower little else in economic news. Stock market looks like it might
wont to move lower- correction?
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
Can it get any slower! Markets have been flat for weeks.
Nothing is moving this market like it use to move. Its going up but so slow you
can't really see it.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
9/15/2012 |
2.15% |
1.52% |
1.93% |
Slow week at the start but Germany's high court ruled for the
Euro Area bank bailout fund and the Fed unleashed a $40 billion monthly IV drip
to the economy and extended operation twist as well as promised to keep rates
accommodative to at least mid 2015. Global stock markets rallied.
W/E Date |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
9/8/2012 |
1.65% |
2.26% |
2.23% |
ECB announces plan to keep Euro Area banks going, a bailout.
U.S. data continues to weaken prompting traders to see QE3 a shoe-in.
Presidential race is on with the RNC and DNC over.
Related:
Markets do their best to discourage retail investing
Market Memo Extended Outlook For S&P
500
See the sort-term forecast
See the long-term forecast
U.S. Stocks Rally On Details Of The ECB Bond Program And
Jobs Data
Thursday, September 6, 2012
After weeks of ho-hum performance from the U.S. stock market signs of stock
buying are back, for at least the open.
Overwhelming majority of global markets rally Thursday as buying equities appear
to have returned on less uncertainty. U.S. stocks rallied early after
learning more European stimulus details.
ADP and
jobless initial claims data pleased markets
Thursday. After a rush of no news for weeks, traders and investors finally
have reason to buy and sell.
U.S. stock market ended at session high Thursday. Friday will become a
very important day for the markets. All eyes will be on further
developments out of the EU and the U.S. for the August jobs unemployment payroll
report. If the jobs number is reasonable, say somewhere between 140,000
and 160,000 new jobs, stocks could continue to rally.
Anything higher would be great. Anything lower could as well be ok with
the markets. The thought process on this is, if jobs are good to great,
markets will probably continue the rally. If jobs are lower then expected,
that too could be ok as that could produce QE3 or some sort of stimulus.
But be aware, markets are very fickle and could act out very differently.
That's why the forecast is at caution.
Could See More Sideways
Movement As Markets Await Central Banks To Act
Monday, August 20, 2012
U.S. stock market set to open flat following Asian and European mixed markets
Monday.
Some profit taking is seen for today as some stocks have run up nicely over the
past five weeks.
Market Barometer DNS services will be moved to new platform today and could
cause some outage over the next couple days. The move will occur at 1:00p
PT, 4p ET Monday, August 20, 2012. If there is an interruption of
Market-Barometer.com in your area, you can go to the
traders mobile site for any emergency changes
to the forecast of which we expect none today. The Americas could be less
affected while Europe and Asia Pac users could see more outages.
Stocks got of to a lower start Monday as did most of
the global markets. Midday sees the major indexes trying to reach the
unchanged line in an effort to regain early losses. Global markets await
central banks to either produce stimulus or continue talking the markets along.
Can The Positive Ness
Continue- Look To Tech To Lead
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Flat market seen for the early going Thursday.
Jobless new claims data little changed from previous week
still show a tough jobs market- chart. Market will look for
leadership most likely will find it in tech stocks.
With a midday dip out of the way, stocks meander sideways through the afternoon.
With a half-hour to go, the broader market is virtually unchanged while the
NASDAQ is up by 1/4 percent.
The new forecast "bug" is nearly complete and ready for
production. The switch to the new bug from the old one is
scheduled for this weekend.
Stocks Look To Consolidate
Probe Support
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
After a three session run and the S&P 500 closing above 1400, stocks rest
Wednesday at the start of business to consolidate and probe support.
We will be replacing the "bug" (upper left corner on all public pages) with a
newer more readable and more automated "bug" at
some point within the next two weeks.
There will be a change to the new bug, besides how it looks. The now
current BLI, the Barometer Leading Indicator, will be changed to indicate short
term forecast. Its the same metric from the models but we are changing the
name from BLI to short term forecast.
Stock off to a lower start Wednesday as it appears the market could consolidate
while it probes for support and resistance. Midmorning the averages were
lower by less than 1/2 percent.
Equities Gain Tuesday As
Markets Refocus On Economics And Earnings
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Futures are pointing to a higher start for the equity market Tuesday on less bad
news from Europe as traders and investors refocus on economics and earnings.
Equities make a go of it Tuesday, ramping up and peaking in the afternoon
session. With less noise from Europe, markets can refocus on the economy
and earnings. The pre noon model run changed the BLI- short term forecast
to positive. Data is beginning to show signs that the market- the
S&P 500- is ready to move higher.
With less than a half-hour to go, the broader market and the Dow, trending
lower, holds onto 1/2 percent gain. The NASDAQ continues to outperform
holding near one percent gain.
Global Markets Positive As Is
U.S. On Jobs Data
Monday, August 6, 2012
Fridays rally inspire Asia Pacific and European stock markets to rally Monday
setting the U.S. up for a positive start. Fridays jobs report, that some
see as anemic, is focal point for rally.
Stocks takeoff, ramp up Monday, as did the global markets, on less bad news from
Europe and a jobs report Friday that showed better than expected jobs creation
in July. The report also showed a slight increase in the unemployment
rate. Jobs in the U.S. still problematic, some say. They say to get
the economy going, at least twice the anemic 163,00 jobs would be needed
monthly.
Stocks
Rally Recovering Some Lost Ground Helped By Jobs Report
Friday, August 3, 2012
U.S. sets up for a rally Friday with Asian markets mixed, European markets
rallying. Jobs report saw a mixed outcome for July with the
unemployment-rate increasing while an anemic 163,000 jobs were created, but was
better than economists had expected.
Stocks rally early on Friday on growing expectation that there will be a QE3 in
September and that the Euro Area problems just might be headed for a fix, albeit
that it will take a long time. European stock markets rally as well ending
2-3-4 percent higher.
Relief rally continues but slightly off session highs. The Dow, S&P 500,
and the NASDAQ trying to post 1-2 percent while Europe posted major advance
Friday, 2-4 percent.
Stocks Resume Sell Off But
Try To Overcome A Fed And ECB No Show
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Big no-show by Europe and U.S. central banks has the U.S. stock market selling
off in the early going Thursday.
Most thought that this would have been a great time for economic shock and awe,
to get the global economy pointing in the right direction, to give a little
confidence in markets. But as usual the central banks have done little.
And the markets, those exchanges, market makers, and those responsible for
electronic execution continue to tell the retail investor to stay away from the
stock markets. Bill Gross (Pimco) may have had it right when he said
equities are dead or dying.
Markets have totally killed the Baby Boomer from stock
market investing and now markets are hard at work on those in their
30's and 40's, trying to get them far far away from stocks. Keep it up and
traders will be real lonely one day. Retail investor may be better off and
more profitable to deal in real estate or paying down debt- equities, right now,
are off-limits for the retail investor.
In late morning trading the major indexes are trying to recover early losses;
major indexes indicate mixed market.
Stocks bounce around the bottom, edging higher, looking to make something out of
this market. Look out tomorrow if the jobs data is anything but great.
A bad jobs number or an unemployment-rate increase could send stocks into
pullback/ correction mode- three strikes and you're out mentality of the
markets.
Fed Does Nothing Takes A Wait
And See
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Stocks off to a cautious start ahead of the FOMC rate announcement where rates
are expected to remains at 0 - 1/4 percent but QE/ stimulus, or hint of, action
is widely expected today. Depending on what happens, U.S. markets could
get very volatile.
Stocks hold just under the unchanged-line after no Fed action. Some were
expecting shock and awe. The shock of it is that the Fed still doesn't see
the economy and jobs market continuing to degrade. The Fed takes a wait
and see but could get caught between a rock and a hard place if they act too
late.
Stocks are well behaved so far but if we get another 'no action', this time from
the ECB tomorrow, stocks could get volatile.
Going to the close stocks are well behaved on a no show by the Fed, now it's up
to the ECB to give direction to the markets- it my not be pretty if they fail to
act. At some point the markets will need action not words.
FOMC Starts Two Day Meeting,
U.S. Markets Cautious
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Last trade day for July as markets gear-up for a neutral start, cautious ahead
of FOMC monetary policy meeting. Central banks appear to be close to a
coordinated worldwide economic stimulus.
All ahead slow- markets anticipate at least an encouraging word on monetary
stimulus. Going into the close, stocks hold close to the unchanged line.
But markets will have to wait till Wednesday for words that could make or break
the markets.
Stocks move to new session low near the close Tuesday. Some traders are
getting nervous over what the Fed will say. Some say the stock market is
overpriced; lookout below if markets get disappointed tomorrow.
Markets Await Central Banks,
U.S. Stocks Flat, Bias Upgraded
Monday, July 30, 2012
Global markets continue moving higher Monday on the expectation of the central
banks to coordinate easing; U.S. is set up for a flat start as traders and
investors await the Fed meeting.
Stocks got off to a flat open but quickly turned positive in anticipation of a
coordinated QE. The morning Barometer model-run changed the forecast-bias
to neutral from negative indicating a less chance of the S&P 500 tanking
(pullback/ correction). Just about the only news that could tank markets
is if the Fed decided or hinted that no additional easing would be needed- that
is highly unlikely.
U.S. stocks ramp up go nowhere as expectation of QE is high but uncertain how
and when the central banks will coordinate easing. Stocks ended flat for
the broader market and slightly lower for the NASDAQ.
Somewhat Upbeat GDP Sees
Market Push Higher, Forecast Reiterated
Friday, July 27, 2012
The Government released GDP data that shows the economy
grew at 1.5 percent in Q2 2012, slightly higher than expected with
revisions to previous years. Futures pointed to a positive open as traders
try to quantify the chance of QE in light of the latest GDP.
Traders and investors push stocks higher ahead of Europe close. Stocks
could trend lower in afternoon trade on fading optimism of QE next week.
Barometer models continue to indicate caution for the forecast with a negative
forecast-bias. Negative forecast-bias indicates that the market is just
one step away from moving lower.
Stocks take off midday like a rocket. Rally continues adding to yesterdays
gain. Traders have locked in on the FOMC announcing QE next week in a
coordinated effort by world banks. The world banks thinking could be to
shoot a round or two over the economic slowdown bow, a shock and awe strategy.
But watch out for the 'selling the news' if this weeks rally carries over to
next.
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