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.Bias |
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News and Articles |
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U.S. Stocks Moved Lower On Disappointing Data Stocks tried to make a go of it but data kept traders on edge with the buyers sidelined. Durable Goods and the Beige Book saw to it that traders were stifled when they tried to bid shares higher. Earnings and company outlook was in focus for the start as well as BP and the Durable Goods report. Markets were very much news driven today with the Durable Goods report and the Beige Book setting buyers on the sidelines as stocks sunk 1/2 to 1-percent. Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Traders relieved by Europe debt problem news send U.S. equities up; Barometer Bias got upgraded Stocks got off to a flat negative start but quickly moved into positive territory and by midday traders bid shares higher on less fear. Earnings and company outlook was the focus for the start as well as the Gulf oil disaster and the storm (Bonnie) that is likely to enter the Gulf today or tonight. Stocks continued to rally as the afternoon Barometer model run upgraded the Barometer Forecast Bias to positive, this leads the way for the Forecast to be upgraded to caution. Friday, July 23, 2010
Traders ramp up stocks ahead of Apple earnings and after a dismal IBM report Stocks opened in negative territory on concerns that IBM results would propagate to others in this fragile economy. Earnings and company outlook and the housing report was the focus for the open Wednesday, as well as IBM and Goldman's report, specifically.
The street awaits Apple Inc. and Yahoo earnings- Apple results could send stocks higher Wednesday. The major averages posted a 3/4 to 1 percent gain with traders anticipating a rally Wednesday. Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Alcoa inspired a rally Tuesday- can Intel continue the momentum The Market Barometer afternoon model run changed the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) to neutral from negative. A neutral BLI could indicate a possible turnaround for the U.S. stock market.
Intel (INTC) earnings beat estimates and investors applaud, sending Intel's shares ramping in the after hours.
Can Intel keep the momentum Wednesday as Alcoa (AA) did today. Intel and Cisco Systems (CSCO), in past years, had inspired the markets to rally higher into the famous tech bubble. Can they do it again? Stay tuned and watch the Bias and the forecast for any possible changes. Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Rally Held Together As Traders Bid Share Prices 2 To 3 Percent Higher Stocks ramp higher making up for yesterdays fizzled rally, with the major indices posting gains of two to three percent Wednesday, closing at the high of the session.
One or even two day rally will not change the underlining fear that traders have about the global economic recovery, which has plagued markets for months. More positive sessions --earning season is next-- with bullish momentum is needed before the Market Barometer forecast can change from negative- watch the Bias and BLI indicators for change. Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Global markets sell off on economic concerns Global stock markets sold off Tuesday on fear that the global economic recovery is in jeopardy.
The sell off got started, early Tuesday, on debt worries from Europe and on China economic slowdown sign, which started the U.S. stock market futures to sell off, translating the losses to the open.
The afternoon Market Barometer model run changed the Forecast Bias to negative from neutral, indicating further risk is likely. The Barometer Bias downgrade comes prior to any possible Forecast change, which could indicate more room on the downside for the U.S. stock Market. Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Another down day, Shorts probably help stocks lower Fear continues to take the stock market lower as the bad news is continually beating marketeers down and there is possible an imbalance going on and there just isn't enough real buyers out there.
Probably the only one making money are the Market Makers, as traders, if not Shorting, have probably already repositioned- buy side attrition could leave pricing in the hands of the Specialists.
The Dow closed lower by 1.4 percent, the S&P 500 off by 1.7 percent, and the NASDAQ down by 1.6 percent. Thursday, June 24, 2010
No change to rates but sluggish stock market persists The Federal Reserve FOMC keeps the Fed funds target [rate] at zero to 1/4 percent. Traders analyze the accompanying statement and see no change in rates for an extended period- maybe through next year.
Another promising session went up in smoke today as traders sold the news and sent stocks lower but was able to squeeze out a mixed end with the Dow up slightly. Wednesday, June 23, 2010
China's monetary policy short-lived in U.S. China's Yuan policy change news got the global markets to rally early Monday, but all that enthusiasm faded and traders decided to send stocks lower to a closing loss.
The Dow closed slightly lower by 0.8 percent, the NASDAQ was off by nearly 1-percent, and the S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent.
The Barometer models show that a caution forecast with neutral BLI and Bias are appropriate for this environment where stocks change direction as they near the close, in recent sessions. Monday, June 21, 2010
Stocks post a last minute gain while BP CEO gets slammed Stocks tread in negative territory for most of the day but managed to ramp-up near the close with a small gain.
Tony Hayward, the Group Chief Executive of BP, was grilled Thursday on the Hill on basic questions like; what went wrong; 'who's to blame.
The afternoon Market Barometer model was prepped to change the Bias from negative to neutral but fell short. Fridays stock market could see an upgrade to the bias, even if it is slightly negative.
Traders have shown some staying power in the last couple of sessions and seem to not be over reacting to news like they have in the past. This might change but the BLI upgrade to neutral indicates a turnaround. So unless a real bad scenario develops, we should be back on track with the rally.
Before the forecast can be changed back to positive, we'll need the BLI and Bias back showing positive and that could take a week or so. Thursday, June 17, 2010
Lots of bad news but stocks are pushed higher Rumors abound and there is bad news at every corner out of the European Union, out of China, out of the U.S. in the form of economic data: jobs- unemployment new claims- housing starts and permits and lets not forget the Gulf oil spill. Yet traders decide to push stocks higher, maybe not today but they had a great excuse to sell off today. Stocks declined at the start but began stair stepping higher through midday, took a quick dip lower and settled for a flat end as traders and investors had plenty of reasons to sell.
Market Barometer model data indicates that we could be making our way out of the correction. A few more neutral to positive sessions would be enough to move the Bias to neutral and that would be just a few steps away from upgrading the forecast back to positive.
The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ ended virtually unchanged. Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Leading Indicator gets upgraded- indicates a probable turnaround The Market Barometer stock market model upgraded the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) from negative to neutral this afternoon.
A neutral BLI indicates a moderate probability that the rally, which started last Thursday, is likely to continue with some very small pullbacks. More positive sessions are expected over the next few week which would increase the probability of an upgrade to the Bias as well as the forecast itself, assuming that traders don't panic on the next bit of bad news.
The upgrade to the BLI today is only a first step in indicating a turnaround for the market. Many more sessions, of mostly positive, are needed, otherwise we could find ourselves back into wild swings and a stair step lower. Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Rally killed on Greece downgrade Mondays rally was killed after news of Moody's downgrade of Greece, as buyers were sidelined Monday on the news. The Market Barometer models showed a good chance of an upgrade to the Bias or the BLI prior to the news. Stocks declined slightly just after the news release but continually moved lower until reaching negative territory.
Even though the market didn't sink far into negative territory and we where able to post a mixed end, it could still be real important for buyers to reestablish themselves Tuesday and at least recover some of today's losses, if this turnaround, started last Thursday, is to continue. Monday, June 14, 2010
Is this the real deal- Barometer says maybe One day isn't a trend, but a very good start of a turnaround if traders can pull out another stock market win like Thursday. Barrowing a popular phrase from Basketball championships, we need a three peat or something like neutral-to-positive days for the next several sessions, or Thursdays rally will be for not.
Market Barometer model run showed a chance that Today's rally was for real and that it might continue. Thursdays triple digit Dow rally was a first step and it's very important that this bullishness doesn't get derailed- Friday could be a critical day for the Bull camp. Thursday, June 10, 2010
Bernanke good news gets trumped by same old bad news There is a lot of good news; Fed Chief Bernanke is upbeat on the economic recovery; economic reports are favorable, if you discount the jobs report. But tell that to traders. It hasn't slowed traders down from selling at the first sign of trouble. The same old bad news (Europe debt concerns) is pretty much trumping everything, every day.
Stocks are still tied to the the U.S. Dollar, at least until earnings season gets underway, when it's hoped that fundamentals, will once again, regain the focus. But it could be very bumpy for the next several week.
The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ posted 1/2 percent loss on the day. Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Volatile markets brought to you by news The stock market continues to struggle with the good- the bad- and the ugly news, as we can be up one day down the next, or alternate every other two sessions- up and down. Traders have to seriously get past the Gulf spill, and the EU debt problems and try to focus on fundamentals.
The Market Barometer forecast models are closing in on a downgrade if traders continue to alternate between the Dollar and stocks. The U.S. Dollar sank in the last couple of hours of Tuesdays session saw the stock market benefit as traders returned their attention back to shares sending stocks to rally with tech shares lagging. The Dollar was sinking back towards the midday low at the close. Tuesday, June 8, 2010- corrected
Tech shares lead the broader market into positive territory Tech stocks took a brief short visit to negative territory midday, immediately bouncing into positive territory, ramping up in afternoon trade, taking the broader market to a positive end.
It appears traders are feeling the Mojo working, hoping for a big payroll number Friday. On the one hand, a big number --lets say north of 600k-- might spook traders into looking at interest rate-hike sooner than anticipated. On the other hand, anything short of 500k might suggest the economic recovery is slowing. It's safe to say that if the number comes in unexpected, it could freak traders one way or the other. Thursday, June 3, 2010
Traders regain almost past two session losses. Oil/ energy shares soar Wednesday as traders bid share prices higher helping the broader market to rally with Shorts covering in last minutes of trade further boosting prices.
What a difference a day makes as Wednesdays rally recovers nearly all of the past two session sell off.
The Dow Jones index posted a 2.3 percent gain, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 added 2.6 percent. Wednesday, June 2, 2010
How low can you go- selling continues in stocks Global tensions (Korea and Israel), the Gulf oil spill disaster, and the continuing Euro Vs Dollar drama had the U.S. stock market very choppy Tuesday with a late session sell off by, probably, short sells. The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ dropped 1.1 percent, 1.7 percent, and 1.5 percent, respectively. Traders are quick to trade as they don't want to be the last to trade (up or down) on the news- fear rules. Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Negative ness still has momentum with May being terrible for Bulls May closed with losses as the major indexes slid into negative territory taking away the gains of the year. Traders look forward to the summer sessions of much of the same market action.
The Dollar Euro trade continues to scripted stock performance as the two has extended the selling in the stock market with the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500, and tech stocks posting a better than one percent loss on the session.
Today's bad news (Spain debt downgrade) was the catalyst for traders, in this session, as markets are news driven to the good, the bad, and the ugly. The Euro and Dollar have a direct correlation with U.S. stocks of late and Spain got the blame for today's selling pressure.
The Market Barometer Forecast continues to show caution with the BLI and Bias still indicating negative. Much more damage to the S&P 500 could cause the models to downgrade the Forecast to negative. Keep watch, upper left corner for any change that could come next week. Friday, May 28, 2010
Stock market rallies on less EU debt worries The U.S. stock market surged Thursday as the Dollar's inverse trade with the Euro sent stocks ramping up on reports that China State Administration (SAFE) said selling of Euro bonds by China was groundless.
Traders took that to mean China had no plans of selling Euro bonds which lessened traders worries over EU debt crises. Stocks have been tied to the Dollar trade and Thursdays action of the Dollar moving lower, which has been good for stocks in the past, sent equities higher and it seems that there was some short covering going on in the trailing minutes of the session, sending the broader market [S&P 500] up by better than 3 percent. Thursday, May 27, 2010
Another last minute sell off on Euro Dollar trades The Dollar rose against the Euro and sunk the U.S. stock market Wednesday as continuing worry over the EU debt crises continues to send traders to pass-up stocks for the Dollar as the index runs higher, inversely sinking stocks.
Barometer model data shows no change anticipated in the Barometer Forecast but the BLI and Bias indicators are positioned properly (negative) for a downgrade of the forecast if conditions sufficiently worsen. Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Stocks plunge at the start but recover to post mixed Stocks opened in negative mode Tuesday, plunging well over two percent at the start, as EU debt problems seem to worry traders with little relief.
After news of the morning lightened-up, stocks made a steady trend higher throughout the day as the major indexes came close to the unchanged line. The major indexes settle for a mixed end with the broader market ending virtually unchanged. The S&P 500 was able to make it into positive territory leaving the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ in negative territory. Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Europe sends stocks in the U.S. lower on debt worries EU crises continues to tumble global markets, sending the U.S. market to the low of Mondays session.
Futures pointed to a negative open Monday as selling continues to be the theme of traders and investors.
EU debit troubles and earnings was the focus for the open. EU debt worries continue to Smart stocks worldwide, as selling action in the U.S. accelerated as the close neared. Selling slams stocks again with a deep sell off at the close. Monday, May 24, 2010
Rollercoaster ride ends with bottom fishing and a rally
What a week. Monday was slightly positive, looking like a very productive
week ahead but then the bottom fell out during the middle three sessions with a
rally Friday to close the week; nice bookends, nice rally, but in-between stocks
Traders finally bid stocks up, sending the majors higher, recovering a small part of the weeks loss- thanks Shorts. Stocks are still mired in muck (thanks EU) losing over four percent for the week. Friday, May 21, 2010
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