DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST

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Last Several Weeks Of Stock Market Performance And What Drove The Markets:

Stocks go virtually nowhere this week as the S&P 500 gained 0.06 percent.

Monday and Tuesday was slow.  Wednesday and Friday very slow.  Thursday closed for Thanksgiving holiday.

The tech heavy NASDAQ gained almost 1-3/4 percent while blue chips added a tenth of a percent.

Next week should add a little more activity but markets could be slow through the rest of the year.

Sneaky stock market continues higher, breaking record after record, as the S&P 500 posts positive for a seventh week in a row.

Dow breaks record high while tech heavy NASDAQ underperforms for the seventh week in a row, although the NASDAQ has outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin for the year.

NASDAQ has gained 32.2 percent, over the course of the year, while the S&P 500 is higher 26.5 percent.

Lots of data next week with Thanksgiving holiday Thursday and a short session on Friday.

Stocks could continue higher through the rest of the year.  Market Barometer models continue to show positive for the short term, caution for the long term.

A 'news' slow week saw the S&P 500, broader market of stocks, gain for a sixth straight week.

Janet Yellen testimony confirmation hearing, on Capital Hill, this week, was the big story.  An even bigger story of the week is most of the market has concluded that tapering is a long way off.  No real timeframe but we could see stimulus for some time to come.

From all accounts the retail investor has yet to join the bull market and until that happens, stocks could inch higher until monetary policy -stimulus and rates- is modified in some way.  Most likely the Fed FOMC will begin by hinting- the word games- that things are getting better.  Inflation picking up would be one, the unemployment-rate is a key indicator that things are getting better when it gets below 7 percent.

Time will tell but whatever happens probably will not happen until next year.  It might be a big mistake to begin hinting at changes to the policy when the economy ramps up during the November and December holiday season.

Stock have done well in the past five weeks.  S&P 500 up 4.7%, Dow up 4.6%, and the NASDAQ up 3%.

A stronger jobs payroll report at first sent stocks lower but after determining that the Fed probably wont begin tapering, until sometime in the first quarter of 2014, stocks rose sharply, Friday, taking back the weeks losses except for tech which posted flat for the week.  Dow and S&P 500 stocks gained while tech NASDAQ stocks lost slightly on the week.

It is unlikely that the Fed FOMC will make any policy change during the holiday season when typically retail goes into the black- when retail turns a profit.  It is very possible tapering wont begin prior to Yellen taking over the Federal Reserve in February.

Fed week saw no change in monetary policy.  Data continues to support no real action by the Fed FOMC until the first or even second quarter of 2014.

If Government could knockdown party competition and get some things done, they could inspire confidence and business in turn might expand creating more jobs which would get the economy rolling again.  But don't count on Government, there is more budget fight left between the parties.

The long term forecast remains at caution while the short term forecast was upgraded to positive last week.

More gain for the U.S. stock market.  S&P 500 continues higher for a third week in a row.  Slow week with a flat September jobs report and more earnings.

The Market Barometer Short Term Forecast was upgraded to positive indicating more gain for the S&P 500 broader market of stocks.

Stocks are positioned for GDP and the FOMC next week.

It was the budget; the Government shutdown; and the debt ceiling; nothing else really mattered, although, the market really knew there would be a deal as even the Government wasn’t that insane to let the U.S. default on its payments.  The whole thing gets postponed until January/ February when the nearly whole process and drama gets its second wind.  Markets are now going to focus on earnings and economical data and company specific news to move stocks around.

The Fed bond tapering process probably wont begin until the economy gets better and that may not happen until mid 2014.  Annual company budgets, for many companies, are on the January to December calendar as company budgets are being prepared now in the 4th quarter for 2014.  A guess is companies will be hiring in 2014 to prop up labor for upcoming projects, new positions, which will do wonders for the U.S. labor market and the economy.

Janet Yellen has been nominated and faces the Hill for conformation to be the next Federal Reserve Chief taking Ben Bernanke's jobs when he leaves in January.

Market barometer Forecasts continue at caution.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader market saw gains while tech NASDAQ stocks gave up a little breaking five straight weeks of gains.

Janet Yellen nominated to be the next Fed Chief of the Federal Reserve to replace Ben Bernanke in February.

The Government shutdown continues with Congress and the White House locking horns over the Debt Ceiling.  Appears a deal is being conjured to kick the whole thing down the road into next month so we can worry over that for another six weeks.

Earnings/ guidance is underway with little fanfare as all eyes are glued to the Debt Ceiling and shutdown.

Market Barometer Forecast Models continue to indicate caution.

Big story was the partial Government shutdown with the debt ceiling default looming.  No jobs report this week as agency that delivers the report was shuttered.

NASDAQ records fifth straight week of gain while the broader market saw a slight loss- Dow lost over one percent.

Earnings start next week with debt ceiling default in focus for the entire week as the following week U.S. could see downgrades over the weekend from credit agencies.

Volatility likely will pick up. Short and long term forecast at caution.

Mostly a negative market with the exception of the NASDAQ.  The NASDAQ eked out a small gain to keep its four week positive streak going.  The broader market settled back and lost 1.1 percent.

It's now data watch for traders and investors, and is a focus for the markets as the Fed continues to drill into markets mindset, that it is data dependant to when monetary policy change begins.

Also the markets are focusing on the Fiscal Cliff and the Debt Ceiling as well as Obamacare.  A lot for any market to handle.

We're in the volatile season but really haven't seen any big moves yet.  Earnings(1) are also going to be thrown into the mix starting in a short two week from now.

No forecast change this week so its caution for the week to come unless things turn one way or the other; it will be caution for a while longest.

(1) Alcoa kicks off earnings season on October 8 with its 3Q13 earnings report.

Third straight week of gains even though Friday saw some selling pressure; mostly buyers on the sideline.

The big news, which markets should have seen coming, from the Fed- no taper.  The FOMC has made it very clear- something the media keeps twisting around- tapering will begin when the economical data matches or exceeds FOMC model targets.

It's conceivable that tapering could be held off until early 2014.  Unless the data makes a big turnaround, in the last couple months of the year, bond purchasing probably will continue.  And it's not likely that the unemployment rate will meet their target anytime soon.  And the target for the Fed funds rate will probably only begin is rise after tapering.

So with weak data and the good old Fiscal Cliff- tax increase and reduction of Government spending through sequestration- headed our way -again- the Fed probably could hold monetary policy 'as is' for a while longer.

The other case-in-point would be, does Bernanke want to begin tapering on his way out or will he leave it for his successor- Yellen?

Syria air strikes being on hold helps steady markets.

Neutral -flat- economical data says tapering, most likely, will be delayed until the October meeting.  Tapering, when it begins, could be a small amount to start with, so that markets don't freak-out as much- limit the shock.

Traders and investors tread [surf the sweet spot] between tempered economical data-points and the Fed getting ready to pull the monthly bond-purchases tapering trigger.

The Fed FOMC meeting, next week, could be traumatic for the markets creating a lot of volatility.  The two day meeting begins Tuesday and ends on Wednesday with a scheduled Bernanke press conference.

Past two weeks saw enough gain in stocks to almost take back all the loss from the selling that started back in early August.

Short week saw the U.S. stock market make some gains.  Dow broke a four week negative streak.  The tech heavy NASDAQ outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Dow over the past five weeks- tech stocks are on the move higher.

The big thing for the week was Syria air strikes go on hold as the global community not backing the Administrations warmongering.  The other big deal was the jobs report that shows the labor market still has weakness.

Fed bond purchase tapering appears to be shelved at least for September as data points don't seem to be that strong.

Unemployment rate did drop slightly in August while a meager 169,000 jobs were added to payrolls.

Now that markets are at full staffing, we could be in for a volatile period.

The forecasts remain at caution.

Dow recorded it's fourth week, in a row, loss while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ recorded three weeks of loses out of the past four.

With earnings so-so , Syria and Fed tapering concerns on traders and investors mind plus its about that time of year when volatility picks up- we're in a very iffy period for stocks.

With more market participation after the Labor Day holiday, when markets come to full staffing, we are almost assured of lots of ups and downs ahead.

At some point traders and investors will hit on the fact that a recovering economy means one thing for the short term- stocks are apt to go down.  Big data points can and should see a big responding stock market sell offs.

The big deal this week was the Fed FOMC minutes.  The NASDAQ and S&P 500 broke two week losing streak- Dow made it three negative weeks in a row of losses.

As Bernanke has said all along, tapering of QE -bond purchases- is data dependent.

If payroll/ jobs -the labor market-, GDP, and a handful of other data-points are robust, expect tapering.

On the other hand, if economic data still points to a struggling economic recovery, expect no tapering action.  That also would be the case if the data continues, more or less, stagnate.

The other big thing was the NASDAQ outage Thursday.  NASDAQ went dark for hours, Thursday afternoon, that caused recording problems for the major indexes and trading in general.

Summery Not Available:  Basically a boring week.  Markets could pickup in September when full market participation returns- vacations end.

Negative week for the stock market saw the Market Barometer Short Term Forecast change to caution from positive.

Traders and investors are squeamish over the possibility of the  Fed tapering the bond purchase program.

Data suggest, so far, that it will be months before the Fed tapers.  But, the media talking-heads keep pounding the news that tapering could happen next month, which it could and that's why the market can be up one day down the next- depends on the news and who speaks.

More of the same market action and talking points are probable next week.

The big story this week was economical data and world markets.

GDP showed a slow recovering economy while the jobs report indicated much the same- very good for stocks because this kind of data point will keep the Fed on hold.

Well on hold for at least until the Fed changes, like Bernanke out and someone else gets to be the Fed Chief.

Global markets helped the U.S. stock market as well as data this week.

The forecast for the short term continues at positive but model data does show a little weakness and the forecast could revert back to caution.

The S&P 500 was able to break and hold 1700, a new record.  Since the bull market began, the Dow and the S&P 500 have gained 60 to 70 percent while the NASDAQ has gained nearly 100 percent.

No Summery Available

Mixed market this week as U.S. stock market consolidates.  Earnings and Bernanke testimony highlighted the otherwise bland week.

Tech stocks hit a bump in the road with Google and Microsoft earnings disappointment.

Next two weeks will see more earnings, GDP estimates, and jobs data- sure to move markets.

Stocks continue moving higher as the FOMC has indicated quantitative easing/ bond purchases are here to stay as long as economical data supports intervention by the Federal Reserve.  Data supports the notion that the Fed is sidelined from tapering.

Market Barometer models upgraded the short term forecast to positive from caution.  Model data suggest a Bias upgrade could be next if the stock market continues in a positive mode.

Earnings got underway with Alcoa setting the stage for a good reporting period.  Markets don't have to worry about the Fed for at least the short term so traders and investors are concentrating on earning and especially company outlook for the current quarter.

World stock markets did well this week as most Asia Pacific and European markets are pinned to the U.S. economy and how the Central Banks modify monetary policy.

Stocks ramp up making a nice gain for the second week in a row.  The big deal this week was the jobs report.

ADP private payrolls and jobless initial claims data was near expectations. Nonfarm payroll jobs report came in better than expected but was not a blow-away, robust, number.

The 195,000 new jobs added to the economy in June shows that the recovery is making headway but wasn't a blowout number.  The Fed will be kept at idle as long as the data is tame enough to keep the FOMC on the sidelines.

May revision was upbeat and if in August June's 195,000 jobs is revised higher, then traders might become edgy.  As long as economic data is tame the Fed might be kept on the sidelines. 

Stocks will have a great chance of continuing higher as long as the data is tame, the Fed kept at idle, and earnings show companies are doing well.

Earnings will get underway with Alcoa next week as traders and investors will key-off company outlook as well the bottom line.

U.S. stock market took a bad start-of-week, turned it into a positive one by weeks end.

A global sell off Monday saw world stock markets tank like there would be no tomorrow.  But as is the norm, stocks rebound midweek with a slight pullback on Friday.

We are in that part of the economic recovery that will see good economical data  -news-  seen as bad news for the stock market.

It's onto earning which could also cause volatility.  For now the forecasts continue a caution.

China's stock market, the SSE Composite, trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, sold off over 5 percent Monday causing the rest of Asia Pacific and European markets, as well as the Americas, to sell off Monday.

GDP first-quarter came in below estimates, gave markets a boost as traders were looking for signs that would hold the Fed from tapering.

Next big thing will be the Nonfarm payroll and unemployment-rate report next week.  Any real good news here could cause more selling.

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Last minute reprieve by the Jobs Report saw stocks surge, Friday, breaking two weeks of negative results.

The Market Barometer Short-term Forecast was downgraded to negative on Tuesday.  Models indicated further weakness likely in the equity.

Markets are beginning the transition from buy the good news, to sell the good news.  Market participants fear a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy by reducing bond purchases or by hiking the target of the Federal Funds Rate.  The rate now is zero to1/4 percent.

U.S. stock market spent most of the week in negative territory.  Stocks shot up Friday on the payroll jobs report that came in slightly higher than expected, but was well off what could be considered a robust recovery.

A robust recovery could be signaled if jobs created were more in the range of  around 200,000 to 250,000 jobs per month, for several months running.  As the jobless initial claims chart shows, the labor market recovery continues to struggle which keeps the Fed a bay.

Even though Fridays rally was seen as very bullish, the short term forecast will remain at negative for at least a couple more sessions.  Markets, both stocks and bonds, as well as the commodities market could increase in volatility over the next few weeks.

Second negative week for the stock market as traders and investors worry over Fed tightening policy that some see as approaching.

This is the first back-to-back negative week for the S&P 500 since November 2012.  A short week as Monday holiday gave U.S. market players time to ponder Fed monetary policy.

Volatility is picking up as Shorts are eager to jump on every little dip, knowing that the market is a little top heavy.  A pullback could be getting underway.  This coming week will tell.  Jobs data coming up could add to volatility.

A little setback for stocks this week, putting a dent in the previous four week rally.

Stocks consolidated, resting from weeks of rallying.  A somewhat top-heavy market could see more of a pullback, even a correction, in the coming weeks.

Fed Chief Ben Bernanke stood by FOMC monetary policy saying, data, especially labor market data, will be key in any forthcoming monetary policy change.  We could be entering a phase of the stock market where good economical news becomes bad news for the stock market.

The theory is, better the economical data  --economic recovery improving--  the quicker the Fed will pullback on stimulus.  Stimulus, that sugar high traders like  --free money--  when it leaves the market, markets can get withdrawal and players are likely to hit the sell button at any hint of Fed tightening.

Jobs data this coming week and next could increase volatility.  The Short and Long term forecasts continue to indicate caution.

Another prosperous week with the U.S. stock market continuing to rally.

Barometer models had the market consolidating this week and if you count in hours, not days, I guess we had a consolidation of sorts, in this 'go for broke' stock market.

Barring really bad news, stocks appear to be on a mission.  Go higher at all costs.  It appears that the slightly bad economic news means that Quantitative Easing is in play for some time to come, with low interest rates seen for years, as long as the unemployment rate remains elevated which Jobless Initial Claims data- chart- shows.

The Market Barometer Forecasts remains at caution.

Stocks continue to inch higher for a third week in a row.  Three week totals are impressive if you were long this market.  Nearly 4 percent higher for the Dow stocks, the S&P 500 broader market saw a 5 percent gain, and the NASDAQ tech stocks saw 7 percent gain.

Consolidation appeared to be getting underway Friday that could see stocks flat next week.  A pick up in data for the coming week could intensify consolidation.  A pullback/ correction seems to be the last thing on the markets mind as more inching long higher is seen by most.

The Short-term and Long-term forecasts continue at caution.  A caution forecast means that stocks could go either way but in this case appears higher.  Caution means be cautious, its not a bad forecast nor necessarily good.

Great week for stocks as Wednesday saw a down day on ADP jobs report but both jobless new claims and nonfarm payroll came in better than expected, sending stocks up for a second week in a row.

FOMC meeting saw no action as expected.  The week was centered around jobs- ADP, jobless initial claims, and nonfarm payroll- unemployment reports.

Stocks keep grinding higher with a pullback or correction on everybody's mind. The Barometer forecasts continue at caution.

Slow week with little for markets to trade on.  Tech earning boosted stocks early in the week while economical data did little ether way.

A fake AP Twitter headline produced a dip in the markets but recovered rather quickly.  Global markets were rather positive all week, helping the U.S. market.

First read of GDP for the First Quarter saw a slight miss but didn't seem to affect the markets.  Thursdays jobless new claims data continues to show a stagnate labor market which will probably show up in Aprils payroll report.

This week saw a partial recovery from the previous weeks loss.

The Market Barometer forecast continues at caution.

Earnings misses and beats from tech heavyweights saw a basic wash with respect to earnings reaction by the stock market.  Terror attacks and Waco explosion set traders and investors on alert for most of the week.

The week got off to a bad start on China data and gold's fast drop- big sell off in gold put traders on alert- other commodities also took a hit Monday.

Asia Pacific and European stock markets all took a hit early in the week.  The U.S. took back some of Mondays loss on Tuesday.

By midweek the Boston explosions, Government letters tampered with and West Texas explosion had markets concerned with traders and investors glued to media displays.

Shorts probably had a lot to do with the ups and downs of the week as the indexes ended up pretty much where they were two weeks ago.  Volatility is picking up which could mean a possible direction change.  The forecasts continue at caution.

The theme this week was no real bad news.  The not real-bad-news of the week was the jobless initial claims data.  Even though the number came in about as expected, maybe a little better, the data- chart- continues to show a very difficult labor market- recovery.  For the labor market that is not-so-good but for companies it is what they are doing to hold cost down.

Investors like that because it means the Fed will hold rates, as is, and keep QE coming down the pike, an economical sugar-drip, like an IV, that the market loves- free money.

A great week for stocks as the S&P 500 had its best week since early January.  Meanwhile, the market is still looking for a pullback that never seems to get here.

Dow and S&P 500 indexes making record highs but not holding onto them as jobs data became troubling for the markets.

Markets were doing ok until the ADP report came out signaling possible trouble ahead.  Not much confidence in that report didn't really have markets worried.  But then came jobless claims data that got the markets attention.  ADP, jobless initial claims, and nonfarm payroll reports gave markets concern.

The final straw was the payroll jobs report for March, a meager 88,000 new jobs created, when the market was looking for more like 200,000. 

Stocks took a dive early Friday but like always recovered, inching its way back, but still took a loss for the week.

Just in time, next week, for earnings to start over.  Alcoa gets thing going Monday that could set the tone for the week.  A second week of losses in a row would be troubling at least for the short term.

What a ho-hum week.  Cyprus still has a slight hold on trading, but the market still goes higher.  GDP and jobless initial claims data was slightly lower than expected, but the market goes higher.  Nowheresville on the U.S. budget and North Korea is still threatening, but the market goes higher.

No fear takes the S&P 500 to new record Thursdays, there's just no stopping this market.  Most all market talking-points have the market ready for a pullback, but the market probably will go higher, at least until May.  The old saying 'sell in May and go away', but the market probably will go higher.

It was all about Cyprus and the Fed this week.  Stocks retreated slightly for the week as the little country than wont so far hasn't.

The bailout to Cyprus banks is contingent on Cyprus taxing bank depositors so that Cyprus banks can get the bailout money in order for the banks to stay in business.  Well, Cyprus Government said NOT.  So now over the weekend an ultimatum- do or die.

Stay tuned as what happens in this small country could have major consequences for the EU and our markets.  The Fed FOMC met, kept monetary policy steady- no change- they did say that the recovery is mending.

Data coming up next week can move markets.  As of this week and going into next week the forecast continues at caution but is subject to change.

Positive week with no big newsmaker, either way.  President on the Hill trying for a Congress budget deal with little luck.  Economic data so so.  Earnings winding down.  Dow Jones Industrial average index (DJIA) breaking records nearly every day.  S&P 500 now within striking range of its record high.  The market should at least test the October 2007 S&P 500 high before pulling back, that would be somewhat normal.  All indication are that a pullback is at hand- next week should be interesting.

Another big week for the stock market.  That makes three big weeks of gains for stocks this year.  Sequestration kicked in as the Government begins general budget cuts because the Administration and Congress can't or wont agree to a budget.

Stocks rally Tuesday and continue throughout the week on little good news.  Nonfarm payroll did come in good for February, above expectations, but revisions for December and January saw a net negative.  Although February's jobs creation number was good, you would need many month of that kind of number to see the labor market turnaround robustly.  Next several month could be tough for payroll -jobs- as sequestration kicks in along with tax hike could cause the jobs number to be difficult to deal with in the coming months.

Another bit of good news is that big banks passed the Fed's stress test.  The test assures that big banks can handle a deep recession.

Europe back in focus this week with the Italian election uncertainty causing some problems in the markets.

After initial reaction Monday sending stocks down, stocks bounce back Tuesday just in time for Bernanke to keep the positive sentiment going by Stumping monetary policy on the Hill.  But wait, Government got there two cents in with a no deal on the budget, whereas, now markets get to think about Sequestration.  So they do and sell off Thursday.

But as is the norm, the buyers come back and push the stock market higher to post a nice gain for the week.

Barometer models downgraded the Short Term Forecast to caution, Friday afternoon, as data suggest the risk is higher for stocks to decline rather than advance.  The downgrade could be short-lived depending on how marketeers handle next week.

Short week as Monday U.S. markets were closed for President's Day holiday that cut trading down to four sessions for the week.  The March higher got an interruption midweek when the Fed FOMC minutes release indicated that the Fed is rethinking Quantitative Easing.  Buyers were sidelined for two sessions but made a comeback Friday with a small rally.  Not enough to keep the averages moving higher, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended with a slight loss for the week while the Dow Jones average saw a slight gain.

Boring:  A very flat market.  S&P 500 eked out a small gain while the Dow and the NASDAQ slipped slightly for the week.  Most everyone believes a pullback is at hand.  State of the Union was about the only thing happening this week.  Earnings and data was pretty much boring as well.  Seven week streak is in tack for the S&P 500.  S&P 500 now has 8.11 percent gain for the period.

Another positive week for tech and the broader market but the Dow- Blue Chip stocks- fell slightly.  Tech and the broader market- S&P 500- added a sixth week of gains.  No real good or bad news.  Earning about Par for the season.

The big story this week was the revisions to past months nonfarm payroll jobs report.  Much greater jobs creation than first reported back for November and December.  U.S. rallies to offset minor weekly loss.  The big bad news was the unexpected contraction in GDP for the fourth quarter 2012.  Most believe it will get revised higher in February's report.  S&P 500 now has five weeks of gains with the prospect of further gains ahead.

Short week with Monday closed for holiday.  Stocks continue higher this week now that we're past the Cliff, for now.  It's all about earnings and economical data.  With the exception of a very bad Apple stock-price-day, investors and traders continue sending stocks higher.  The major indices now show four straight weeks of gains with the S&P 500 up nearly 7-percent.

A very slow but productive week.  If you think this is a dull market, look again.  The S&P 500 is up nearly 9-percent since around Thanksgiving.  More of the same is expected if no big bad news to derail this Tortoise market.  Good earnings/ outlook and economical data in the U.S. and Asia Pacific economies helped the global markets.

Added a little to last weeks rally.  Appears we are consolidating while we go through the start of earnings season.  Alcoa starts off the season with a good outlook.  The Short Term Forecast was upgraded to positive on model data suggesting a more calmer period while we go through earnings.

Big gains this week in the U.S. stock market, as well as other global markets, as the Fiscal Cliff deal gets done for at least a couple months, when we get to do this over again.  S&P 500 gains 4-1/2 percent this week more than any week in 2012.  It's onto earnings season with Alcoa next week.  Focus will be on earnings/ outlook and economical data.  The Fiscal Cliff deal was good enough to get the markets past the cliff until March when we get to go through more political swings in the market.  As of this week the forecast continues at caution.

The big story this week is no deal- yet.  This weekend and Monday is it.  It's over the cliff we go if Washington can't get it together.  What will the markets do is the big question.  If we get a deal, of sorts, we could see a ramp-up followed by a pullback/ correction.  If no deal, maybe a mild sell-off and sideways until Washington goes to the next budget level in January.  Volatility could pick up in January.  Keep an eye on the forecast.

U.S. traders and investors took half of the weeks gain back Friday when news of the Fiscal Cliff tax plan vote was scrubbed by the House.  Market futures dived on the overnight news but cooler heads prevailed and the U.S. stock market lost a fraction of what it could have.  Asia Pacific and European markets took the news calmly, too.  Markets around the world are left with a "cliffhanger" not really knowing what will happen in the next couple of days before the economy and budget goes over the cliff.

Markets real uncertain to what is going to happen with the Fiscal Cliff.  Companies are already doing things, like special dividend payments, to position themselves and their shareholders for either going over the cliff or averting it.  Only a couple of weeks left in the year and most analysts believe the Government wont let this economy, as fragile as it is, take another huge hit.  Most believe that a last minute deal will avert the cliff or we'll go over the cliff but get saved from a terrible crash by Congressional magic.

It's sill all about the Fiscal Cliff.  Until the Fiscal Cliff gets a resolution, markets will continue flat trading.  Dow did well this week but Apple Inc. holds back the broader market and tech.  Data this week was so- so.  Jobs data was flat at best.

It was all about the Fiscal Cliff this week.  Each news item contradicting the previous news.  Overall, stocks show moderate gain for the week as markets expect a Fiscal Cliff Budget deal by Christmas.  GDP advanced slightly but jobs continues to be very weak.  Housing data picked up as most believe the housing market has bottomed.

It appears that the White House and Congress are talking Fiscal Cliff.  Less concern by traders and investors saw stocks rise over Thanksgiving week.  Housing data helps a little but jobs data still a concern.  Black Friday results not in yet so don’t know how that will play in the coming week.

The big story is the U.S. fiscal cliff and Mideast unrest had markets down. Also traders believe taxes will go up next year also put a damper on trading. If that wasn't enough, the economy sucks, jobs- layoffs jump and the overall global economy is in trouble. With all that is wrong stocks so far are holding up.

Big downer of a week as Obama gets reelected. Now markets get to turn to fiscal cliff and the stagnate economy- very little jobs growth. Problems that markets will have to deal with: Big banks, countries, and cities being downgraded; the Iranian nuclear problem- crisis to be? Greece exit from the Euro Area- it could happen; Spain debt problem that could escalate; China GDP slowing as well as Asia Pacific and Europe; U.S. budget- fiscal cliff; U.S. economic slowdown- stagnate jobs growth; Tax increase in 2013?

Markets were closed Monday and Tuesday because of hurricane Sandy. The brief week saw a rally and a sell off as markets prepare for next weeks President election. Nonfarm payroll jobs for October came in better than expected but the unemployment-rate increased.

Caterpillar earnings outlook disappointed markets. Earnings season, so fare, is ok but company forecast/ outlook are gloomy, at best. The final presidential debate saw Obama catch up to Romney and the Fed FOMC did little from their previous meeting- no changes. Market Barometer models see tough times ahead for equities. The short term forecast was downgraded to negative. Models see equity market tired and a pullback/ correction could be near.

Week started out great with a rally Monday and follow-on Tuesday. By midweek stocks came under pressure because of IBM and Intel, followed on by Google, all missing estimates/ outlook. Jobless initial claims had a big increase which didn’t settle well with markets. Second presidential debate saw Obama catch up to Romney in debate performance which saw markets cool slightly.

IMF downgrades the global economic outlook. Earnings season underway with forecast warnings. S&P 500 has virtually gone nowhere for the past month. Flat trading expected to continue.

First presidential debate, Romney did well. Jobs created for September came in as expected- unemployment rate drops. Europe problems ongoing.

Back to iffy news from Europe, set the tone for the week. GDP dropped lower little else in economic news. Stock market looks like it might wont to move lower- correction?

Can it get any slower! Markets have been flat for weeks. Nothing is moving this market like it use to move. Its going up but so slow you can't really see it.

Slow week at the start but Germany's high court ruled for the Euro Area bank bailout fund and the Fed unleashed a $40 billion monthly IV drip to the economy and extended operation twist as well as promised to keep rates accommodative to at least mid 2015. Global stock markets rallied.

ECB announces plan to keep Euro Area banks going, a bailout. U.S. data continues to weaken prompting traders to see QE3 a shoe-in. Presidential race is on with the RNC and DNC over.

Still real slow. Europe still mostly on holiday. Market waited on Bernanke for hint of QE3. Got what it wanted and stocks recovered most of weeks losses.

Related:

Markets do their best to discourage retail investing

Market Memo Extended Outlook For S&P 500

The sort-term forecast indicates caution

The long-term forecast indicates caution

U.S. Stocks Rally On Details Of The ECB Bond Program And Jobs Data

Thursday, September 6, 2012

After weeks of ho-hum performance from the U.S. stock market signs of stock buying are back, for at least the open.

Overwhelming majority of global markets rally Thursday as buying equities appear to have returned on less uncertainty.  U.S. stocks rallied early after learning more European stimulus details.

ADP and jobless initial claims data pleased markets Thursday.  After a rush of no news for weeks, traders and investors finally have reason to buy and sell.

U.S. stock market ended at session high Thursday.  Friday will become a very important day for the markets.  All eyes will be on further developments out of the EU and the U.S. for the August jobs unemployment payroll report.  If the jobs number is reasonable, say somewhere between 140,000 and 160,000 new jobs, stocks could continue to rally.

Anything higher would be great.  Anything lower could as well be ok with the markets.  The thought process on this is, if jobs are good to great, markets will probably continue the rally.  If jobs are lower then expected, that too could be ok as that could produce QE3 or some sort of stimulus.

But be aware, markets are very fickle and could act out very differently.  That's why the forecast is at caution.

Could See More Sideways Movement As Markets Await Central Banks To Act

Monday, August 20, 2012

U.S. stock market set to open flat following Asian and European mixed markets Monday.  Some profit taking is seen for today as some stocks have run up nicely over the past five weeks.

Market Barometer DNS services will be moved to new platform today and could cause some outage over the next couple days.  The move will occur at 1:00p PT, 4p ET Monday, August 20, 2012.  If there is an interruption of Market-Barometer.com in your area, you can go to the traders mobile site for any emergency changes to the forecast of which we expect none today.  The Americas could be less affected while Europe and Asia Pac users could see more outages.

Stocks got of to a lower start Monday as did most of the global markets.  Midday sees the major indexes trying to reach the unchanged line in an effort to regain early losses.  Global markets await central banks to either produce stimulus or continue talking the markets along.

Can The Positive Ness Continue- Look To Tech To Lead

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Flat market seen for the early going Thursday.  Jobless new claims data little changed from previous week still show a tough jobs market- chart.  Market will look for leadership most likely will find it in tech stocks.

With a midday dip out of the way, stocks meander sideways through the afternoon.  With a half-hour to go, the broader market is virtually unchanged while the NASDAQ is up by 1/4 percent.

The new forecast "bug" is nearly complete and ready for production.  The switch to the new bug from the old one is scheduled for this weekend.

Stocks Look To Consolidate Probe Support

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

After a three session run and the S&P 500 closing above 1400, stocks rest Wednesday at the start of business to consolidate and probe support.

We will be replacing the "bug" (upper left corner on all public pages) with a newer more readable and more automated "bug" at some point within the next two weeks.

There will be a change to the new bug, besides how it looks.  The now current BLI, the Barometer Leading Indicator, will be changed to indicate short term forecast.  Its the same metric from the models but we are changing the name from BLI to short term forecast.

Stock off to a lower start Wednesday as it appears the market could consolidate while it probes for support and resistance.  Midmorning the averages were lower by less than 1/2 percent.

Equities Gain Tuesday As Markets Refocus On Economics And Earnings

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Futures are pointing to a higher start for the equity market Tuesday on less bad news from Europe as traders and investors refocus on economics and earnings.

Equities make a go of it Tuesday, ramping up and peaking in the afternoon session.  With less noise from Europe, markets can refocus on the economy and earnings.  The pre noon model run changed the BLI- short term forecast to positive.  Data is beginning to show signs that the market- the S&P 500- is ready to move higher.

With less than a half-hour to go, the broader market and the Dow, trending lower, holds onto 1/2 percent gain.  The NASDAQ continues to outperform holding near one percent gain.

Global Markets Positive As Is U.S. On Jobs Data

Monday, August 6, 2012

Fridays rally inspire Asia Pacific and European stock markets to rally Monday setting the U.S. up for a positive start.  Fridays jobs report, that some see as anemic, is focal point for rally.

Stocks takeoff, ramp up Monday, as did the global markets, on less bad news from Europe and a jobs report Friday that showed better than expected jobs creation in July.  The report also showed a slight increase in the unemployment rate.  Jobs in the U.S. still problematic, some say.  They say to get the economy going, at least twice the anemic 163,00 jobs would be needed monthly.

Stocks Rally Recovering Some Lost Ground Helped By Jobs Report

Friday, August 3, 2012

U.S. sets up for a rally Friday with Asian markets mixed, European markets rallying.  Jobs report saw a mixed outcome for July with the unemployment-rate increasing while an anemic 163,000 jobs were created, but was better than economists had expected.

Stocks rally early on Friday on growing expectation that there will be a QE3 in September and that the Euro Area problems just might be headed for a fix, albeit that it will take a long time.  European stock markets rally as well ending 2-3-4 percent higher.

Relief rally continues but slightly off session highs.  The Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ trying to post 1-2 percent while Europe posted major advance Friday, 2-4 percent.

Stocks Resume Sell Off But Try To Overcome A Fed And ECB No Show

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Big no-show by Europe and U.S. central banks has the U.S. stock market selling off in the early going Thursday.

Most thought that this would have been a great time for economic shock and awe, to get the global economy pointing in the right direction, to give a little confidence in markets.  But as usual the central banks have done little.

And the markets, those exchanges, market makers, and those responsible for electronic execution continue to tell the retail investor to stay away from the stock markets.  Bill Gross (Pimco) may have had it right when he said equities are dead or dying.

Markets have totally killed the Baby Boomer from stock market investing and now markets are hard at work on those in their 30's and 40's, trying to get them far far away from stocks.  Keep it up and traders will be real lonely one day.  Retail investor may be better off and more profitable to deal in real estate or paying down debt- equities, right now, are off-limits for the retail investor.

In late morning trading the major indexes are trying to recover early losses;  major indexes indicate  mixed market.

Stocks bounce around the bottom, edging higher, looking to make something out of this market.  Look out tomorrow if the jobs data is anything but great.  A bad jobs number or an unemployment-rate increase could send stocks into pullback/ correction mode- three strikes and you're out mentality of the markets.

Fed Does Nothing Takes A Wait And See

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Stocks off to a cautious start ahead of the FOMC rate announcement where rates are expected to remains at 0 - 1/4 percent but QE/ stimulus, or hint of, action is widely expected today.  Depending on what happens, U.S. markets could get very volatile.

Stocks hold just under the unchanged-line after no Fed action.  Some were expecting shock and awe.  The shock of it is that the Fed still doesn't see the economy and jobs market continuing to degrade.  The Fed takes a wait and see but could get caught between a rock and a hard place if they act too late.

Stocks are well behaved so far but if we get another 'no action', this time from the ECB tomorrow, stocks could get volatile.

Going to the close stocks are well behaved on a no show by the Fed, now it's up to the ECB to give direction to the markets- it my not be pretty if they fail to act.  At some point the markets will need action not words.

FOMC Starts Two Day Meeting, U.S. Markets Cautious

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Last trade day for July as markets gear-up for a neutral start, cautious ahead of FOMC monetary policy meeting.  Central banks appear to be close to a coordinated worldwide economic stimulus.

All ahead slow- markets anticipate at least an encouraging word on monetary stimulus.  Going into the close, stocks hold close to the unchanged line.  But markets will have to wait till Wednesday for words that could make or break the markets.

Stocks move to new session low near the close Tuesday.  Some traders are getting nervous over what the Fed will say.  Some say the stock market is overpriced;  lookout below if markets get disappointed tomorrow.

Markets Await Central Banks, U.S. Stocks Flat, Bias Upgraded

Monday, July 30, 2012

Global markets continue moving higher Monday on the expectation of the central banks to coordinate easing;  U.S. is set up for a flat start as traders and investors await the Fed meeting.

Stocks got off to a flat open but quickly turned positive in anticipation of a coordinated QE.  The morning Barometer model-run changed the forecast-bias to neutral from negative indicating a less chance of the S&P 500 tanking (pullback/ correction).  Just about the only news that could tank markets is if the Fed decided or hinted that no additional easing would be needed- that is highly unlikely.

U.S. stocks ramp up go nowhere as expectation of QE is high but uncertain how and when the central banks will coordinate easing.  Stocks ended flat for the broader market and slightly lower for the NASDAQ.

Somewhat Upbeat GDP Sees Market Push Higher, Forecast Reiterated

Friday, July 27, 2012

The Government released GDP data that shows the economy grew at 1.5 percent in Q2 2012, slightly higher than expected with revisions to previous years.  Futures pointed to a positive open as traders try to quantify the chance of QE in light of the latest GDP.

Traders and investors push stocks higher ahead of Europe close.  Stocks could trend lower in afternoon trade on fading optimism of QE next week.  Barometer models continue to indicate caution for the forecast with a negative forecast-bias.  Negative forecast-bias indicates that the market is just one step away from moving lower.

Stocks take off midday like a rocket.  Rally continues adding to yesterdays gain.  Traders have locked in on the FOMC announcing QE next week in a coordinated effort by world banks.  The world banks thinking could be to shoot a round or two over the economic slowdown bow, a shock and awe strategy.  But watch out for the 'selling the news' if this weeks rally carries over to next.

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