DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST

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Market Barometer models downgrade the Leading Indicator to negative, as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is made law

Barometer models show market at crossroads Friday and next week

Barometer Leading Indicator chart shows progress of today's market to the November low, as the Barometer models see it.  Only thing missing, it appears, is a major sell off of the magnitude of a "Black Friday".  A major sell off that takes stocks way down to an intraday "V" recovery.  Will it happen this time- not known- as this is a recession of major proportions with banks underwater and companies not easily able to get financing.  There is a great case for further downside to this market that could take stock much lower.  The next couple of trading session will likely tell us more.  But if Bernanke is correct and the recession ends this year with an economic recovery next year, then we could be close to the bottom.  Stay tuned and watch the bug for changes.

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Barometer channel appears broken, now it looks like test November lows.

A test of the November low appears to be next as pre close model downgrades the forecast to negative.  Barometer methodology dictates that if forecast metrics are on the verge of deteriorating and the forecast is at caution with a negative bias, the models downgrade the forecast just incase the bottom is penetrated.  In a normal stock market cycle it might be evident- by now- that stocks could be ready for a turnaround.  But in this crises of banks being unsteady and not really lending, markets are predictably, unpredictable.  A freshly published Leading Indicator chart shows a further fall to the November lows, that just may not hold.  Two major things are missing in this turnaround juncture, (1) confidence must be restored for banks and the economy, (2) a capitulation is needed- but in defense of that is stocks have fallen so far already maybe the last 20 percent is the "throwing in of the towel".  This indeed is a different market and time- Barometer models are designed to learn from past experiences, so look for a heads up sooner or later.

Barometer Leading Indicator goes negative in pre market, November lows get tested

The pre open Barometer model downgraded the Leading Indicator to negative as model data show the November [S&P 500] low may not test successfully and that stocks could fall through Barometer support levels next week.  The Dow closed off by 1.3 percent, S&P 500 was lower by 1.1 percent, and the NASDAQ closed virtually flat- major indexes.  If we get negative days in the market next week and Barometer new channel is broke, we could see November lows (S&P 500) tested. See the new Barometer Leading Indicator model study for more details for next week.

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act got signed into law

Double up last weeks losses while the stimulus package, aka, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act got signed into law.  The Government appears to be making it easy for tax payers to follow -just what- the money is for and who gets it, by documenting it on a new website [www.recovery.gov].  Should prove interesting to see the developments.  Meanwhile, the stock market gets slammed again, nearly doubling last weeks losses, making it a big hole for investors to climb out of.  The test of the bottom of the bear market could be coming soon and maybe often- see S&P 500 chart.  Time will tell.  As always, watch the bug for any changes, as right now we are still at caution for the forecast.   February, 2009, updated