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Stocks
languish around the flat line Wednesday for most of the session when
after the stimulus agreement investors began biding stocks higher to end the day
with a small gain, well off from yesterdays controlled crash of prices.
Bank CEO's get hammered on the Hill today as they try and explain what they have
done [and plan to do with] the bailout money received.
The major indexes ended higher by 1/2 percent.
The devil is in the details of which we have none
With little change in the new administration- in as
far as the bailout plan goes- no details have taken investors to sell stocks in
the continued uncertainty of just how will we get out of this recession.
Stock indexes were doing ok, for the most part,
until the lack of details on the stimulus package, when it was understood today
would be the unveiling of the plan for the ailing economy and banks.
Today's sell off is in direct reaction to the build up of hope dashed.
Barometer models see bottom building channel
A new
Barometer channel appears to be building. A Barometer channel is a
navigation passage that the Barometer models have identified that
could be a predictor of
the stock market. The
Barometer channel chart shows the establishment of an upward-trending channel
through which the Barometer-plot could travel. The Barometer-plot moving upward
through the channel indicates a stock market that has bottomed or is about too.
The next couple of weeks will be important in further development of this new
seen turnaround in the stock market. The forecast bug is updated when
changes occur.
The forecast currently stands at caution.
Pre midday model
changes BLI
The pre midday model-run changed the BLI to neutral
from negative. Data suggest that a more positive trend in stocks could be
near [S&P
500 chart]. Although the BLI is no longer negative, a move to
neutral only indicates a probability that sentiment is changing and that "better
times" could be near.
The forecast continues to indicate caution.
Worse than expected jobs report had little effect over pre market
Companies [nonfarm
payroll jobs] lost 598,000 jobs in January with the
unemployment rate rising to 7.6 percent, the
Labor Department reported today. Payroll employment had lost 3.6 million
jobs since December 2007, about half of the decline occurred in the past three
month reporting period. January's job losses were large and widespread
across almost all major sectors. With revisions, jobs data came in worse
than most economist had expected. The report had little effect over
Fridays futures session with the
stock market in rally mode midday.
Investors pump up
stocks ahead of nasty jobs data
Investors
end their buying spree ahead of what most expect to be a very nasty
jobs report.
Weekly jobless claims suggest that nonfarm
payroll data could be bad as well as seeing the unemployment
rate increase. At some point markets will discount the bad news and drive
stocks up past resistance [S&P
500 chart]. It may be tomorrow and it could be later in the
year.
Unemployment lines added 35,000 more x-workers
The Labor
Department reported that new jobless claims rose by 35,000 to
626,000.
The Jobless new claims chart shows a surging
unemployment rate that sees no sign of stabilizing.
Market
reaction was mostly negative during the pre market and early trading
Thursday. February, 2009
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