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Diary of a stock market gone bad- but wait- stocks rallying like crazy- what goes!!!


These are the chronicles from Market Barometer news that were tied to the "V" shape recovery of the U.S. stock market in March 2009.


The gold- orange- color in the text below were the significant developments and highlights in the news, back then.


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Investors freak and sell out on global economic funk

Getting close to capitulation as investors and traders dump stock Monday.  The major indexes posted losses of 4 to 4-1/2 percent, as the news keeps getting worse.  A new Barometer Leading Indicator chart shows today's action breaking through the November Barometer support.  This means if Tuesdays market is as bad, or determined negative [by the models], the Barometer models identified the next support-level-test a week or two from now.  If Tuesdays (tomorrow) market starts out real negative with capitulation-type selling and a "V" reversal, that takes the indices back up to positive territory, or close, then we may be seeing a temporary bottom that could last for  weeks to months before -most likely- another Bear bottom test.  Remember this is a fundamental forecast based on what we know now.

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Market Barometer leading indicator model chart

No carryover from yesterdays sell off and no reversal today spells probable move lower

Could be looking at a move lower since we have broken through support levels.  If the market was ripe for a rally, because all the bad news had been priced in, we would have seen some conviction with an upward move.  Stocks didn't go a whole lot lower Tuesday because most investors probably believe that equities are properly priced for all that is known at this moment.  It would be hard to believe that we now, today, have all the bad news in and accounted for.  So it is very likely that stocks will hang around these levels, give or take, until something comes along to inspire investors, one way or the other- a market mover.  You can prejudge conditions and believe one way or the other but the Barometer Forecast has a triple negative outlook for the near-term.  That doesn't mean we wont see a rally, shares do look a little cheap at these levels, right?   Tuesday, March  3, 2009


Stocks rally Tuesday on a sign that there's life in the Financial sector

The market being oversold probably helped investors scarf-up bank shares and a wide range of others.  The major indexes blasted ahead posting 6 to 7 percent gain.  Barometer models indicate a great recovery rally off of Barometer support [see chart above- blue arrow].  More days like today, performance wise, would be needed for models to make any change, as the data indicators were/are very depressed from weeks of selling.  We've been here before.  Remember the November lows?  And the rally that looked for real?  The one thing that is missing (in this bear-market turning bull scenario) is, we haven't had a capitulation, unless you look at the depth of this bear as the capitulation.  The Barometer models will be updating the forecast at the appropriate time, so watch the bug for changes.  Hope for the best.   Tuesday, March 10, 2009


S&P 500 indexes color coded forecast chart


Rally gets serious as stocks ramp up 6 to 7 percent Monday

Investors scarf up shares Monday sending the major indices up by 6 to 7 percent.  Barometer model data continues to look very solid and changes could come soon to the forecast if the cycle of mostly positive days with slight pullbacks [for consolidation purposes] continue.  Today the Government announced detail plans on buying bank assets in order to free up funds for lending.  That, and the report of existing home sales, helped Wall Street continue the two week rally.  Market Barometer models continue too model the market as the latest data suggest a bias and forecast change to positive this week, if the bullish momentum continues.   Monday, March 23, 2009


Unpredictable stock market continues to give experts a high degree of nervousness.

When the market rallies one day, dives the next, with swings of 2, 4 even 6 percent, it tends to give even the experienced investor a fit.  If you thought we were ready to set the Bull loose, it may have been to early as Mondays performance was helped down by the same old thing-- auto and bank news.  It also could be (we'll find out tomorrow) investors taking profits ahead of quarter-end.  We did see a bounce off the low Monday that could be explained as picking-up or adding to positions for the next quarter.  If we go back to a rally or at least a positive day Tuesday, then that may be what is happening.  Barometer model data suggest we are close to a bias downgrade, so look for Tuesday to tell where we might be going from here.   Monday, March 30, 2009


Leading Indicator chart shows a new leg up on the horizon

With today's positive market performance an updated Barometer Leading Indicator chart shows the Bulls are not done with this rally.  Barometer models saw Mondays sell off as taking profits with a late afternoon bounce of the lows and today's positive performance as building in positions for the second quarter.  Only thing missing is a couple more positive days of performance to get past the Barometer November low mark.  If that where to happen, the forecast most likely would be upgraded to positive.  An abundant of bad news and earnings-shock would set investors back to selling.  As always watch the 'bug' for intraday changes and look for M&A to pick up if this unwinds positively.   Tuesday, March 31, 2009




At the end of march we obviously didn't know how far this rally would go.  Or even if the "March bottom" would stand.  But a huge 6 to 7 percent bounce in one day tells you someone sure believes in the rally of March 2009- many will say it was short covering- OK.  Does it really matter who the buyer is!


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