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Could be looking at a move lower since we have broken through support levels.
If the market was ripe for a rally, because all the bad news had been priced in,
we would have seen some conviction with an upward move. Stocks didn't go a
whole lot lower Tuesday because most investors probably believe that equities
are properly priced for all that is known at this moment. It would be hard
to believe that we now, today, have all the bad news in and accounted for.
So it is very likely that stocks will hang around these levels, give or take,
until something comes along to inspire investors, one way or the other- a market
mover. You can prejudge conditions and believe one way or the other but
the
Barometer Forecast has a triple negative outlook
for the near-term. That doesn't mean we wont see a rally, shares do look a
little cheap at these levels, right?
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Stocks rally Tuesday on a sign that there's life in the Financial sector
The market being oversold probably helped investors
scarf-up bank shares and a wide range of others. The major indexes blasted ahead posting 6 to 7
percent gain. Barometer models indicate a great recovery rally off of
Barometer support [see chart above- blue arrow].
More days like today, performance wise, would be needed for models to make any
change, as the data indicators were/are very depressed from weeks of selling.
We've been here before.
Remember the November lows? And the rally that
looked for real? The one thing that is missing (in this
bear-market turning bull scenario) is, we haven't had a capitulation, unless you
look at the depth of this bear as the capitulation. The Barometer models
will be updating the forecast at the appropriate time, so watch the bug for
changes. Hope for the best.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Rally gets serious as stocks ramp up 6 to 7 percent Monday
Investors
scarf up shares Monday sending the major indices up by 6 to 7 percent.
Barometer model data continues to look very solid and changes could come soon to
the forecast if the cycle of mostly positive days with slight pullbacks [for
consolidation purposes] continue. Today the Government announced detail
plans on buying bank assets in order to free up funds for lending. That,
and the report of existing home sales, helped Wall Street continue the two week
rally. Market Barometer models continue too model the market as the latest
data suggest a bias and forecast change to positive this week, if the bullish
momentum continues.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Unpredictable stock market continues to give experts a high degree of
nervousness.
When the market rallies one day, dives the next,
with swings of 2, 4 even 6 percent, it tends to give even the experienced
investor a fit. If you thought we were ready to set the Bull loose, it may
have been to early as
Mondays performance was helped down by the same
old thing-- auto and bank news. It also could be (we'll find out tomorrow)
investors taking profits ahead of quarter-end. We did see a bounce off the
low Monday that could be explained as picking-up or adding to positions for the
next quarter. If we go back to a rally or at least a positive day Tuesday,
then that may be what is happening. Barometer model data suggest we are
close to a
bias downgrade, so look for Tuesday to tell
where we might be going from here.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Leading
Indicator chart shows a new leg up on the horizon
With
today's positive market performance an updated Barometer Leading Indicator chart
shows the Bulls are not done with this rally. Barometer models saw Mondays
sell off as taking profits with a late afternoon bounce of the lows
and today's positive
performance as building in positions for the second quarter. Only thing
missing is a couple more positive days of performance to get past the Barometer
November low mark. If that where to happen, the forecast most likely would
be upgraded to positive. An abundant of bad news and earnings-shock would
set investors back to selling. As always watch the 'bug' for intraday
changes and look for M&A to pick up if this unwinds positively.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
FOOTNOTE:
At the end of
march we obviously didn't know how far this rally would go. Or even if the
"March bottom" would stand. But a huge 6 to 7 percent bounce in one day
tells you someone sure believes in the rally of March 2009- many will say it was
short covering- OK. Does it really matter who the buyer is!
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