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Market Outlook is a recap of the current and future condition of the U.S. stock market.

Indicates short-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Indicates the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias.

Indicates long-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Extended Forecast is a seven week forecast of the U.S. stock market.

Jun 12 2009

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Economy added 161,000 jobs.

Unemployment Rate 4.9 percent.

GDP +3.5 percent.

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Barometer Chart as of June 24, 2009

Stock Market Forecast Chart- Barometer Chart

6-24-2009 Stock Market Forecast Barometer Chart

Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart.  Data from the models populate the charts to show a visual of how the models see the U.S. stock market.

This particular chart is a channel chart that is used to find tops and bottoms as well as identifying performance issues.

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  Chart updated on June 24, 2009 after the close.  Click Detail Barometer Chart for more information.

Market Barometer methodology, now over seven years old, has identified a new technical construct that could lead to a more accurate forecast.

Dubbed "concave recovery", this discovery could be used to forecast short-term and long-term forecasts and outlook.

It may take several instances to prove this new technique as the Market Barometer methodology has been analyzing the stock market for a short period of time, relatively speaking.

As you review the chart above and the legend you can see two concave structures.  Click chart to launch.

The one on the left, in 2006, is a fully developed concave, as we have defined it, that led to the continuation of the rally that lasted to November 2007.

The second concave on the right, the current period, has yet to complete the second inflection point because we haven't got there yet.

Represented by the green arrow, the second inflection point looks to be mid-August 2009.

If true and the plots continue moving along the upper reference line pointed to by both the blue and green arrows, it would lead right to the end of the concave, at the intersection.

What does this mean.  If accurate, the rally will catch most everybody off guard again in August, after earnings season as most marketeers expect the stock market to move sideways through the summer.

The Market Barometer methodology over the past seven years has been very accurate during the trials.  This new discovered construct needs to be proven in order to be relied on.  But we feel this is an accurate reading of the data according to the methods we use.

As always, never fully rely on forecasts.  Anything can happen to derail markets from its then current course.  Always be prepare for the unexpected.

We'll update this section from time to time as things change.

This particular chart is updated daily but not published on the website routinely, for security reasons.  However, there is a similar flash chart that is displayed daily, located in the Market Snapshot section.

 

 
 
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