www.Market-Barometer.com forecasting the U.S. Stock Market

DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST

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Market Outlook is a recap of the current and future condition of the U.S. stock market.

Indicates short-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Indicates the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias.

Indicates long-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Extended Forecast is a seven week forecast of the U.S. stock market.

Jun 24 2009

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Economy added 211,000 jobs.

Unemployment Rate 4.4 percent.

GDP +1.2 percent.

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Barometer Chart as of August 12, 2009

Stock Market Forecast Chart- Barometer Chart

8-12-2009 Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart

Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart.

Data from the models populate the charts to show a visual of how the models see the U.S. stock market.  This particular chart is a channel chart that is used to find tops and bottoms as well as identifying performance issues. Click chart to launch.

Left orange arrow points to the line that stretches the length of the 2006-2007 concave.

Right orange arrow points to the line that stretches the length of the 2009 concave.

Blue arrows point to the first inflection point.

Green arrows point to the second inflection point.

Warning!!! Forecasting is good for the fundamentals of a market.  News can change the direction of markets.  Forecasting cannot achieve a 100 percent accuracy rate.

  Chart updated on August 12, 2009 after the close.  Click Detail Barometer Chart for more information.

It appears that the mid August rally came earlier than the Barometer models had predicted.

The previous study indicated that the stock market would be positive and would move mostly sideways until mid August when the March rally would ramp up on a new leg up. (see the downward-sloped-line pointed to by the green arrow).

The models indicated that the market would move mostly sideways and then rally.  But the Bulls didn't want to wait till mid August and sent stocks ramping up in July.

Now the models are showing a new problem that is indicated in the chart above with the yellow line, the Barometer-plot, shooting straight up.

Normally, trading sessions, over a period of time, show a consistent pattern.  If you look at the chart closely, you will see patterns develop over time.  And when you see a break in the pattern, you can bet something is going to happen.

The almost straight up Barometer-plot (yellow line) near the green arrow (right side) indicates a break in the pattern and we could be looking at a top building.

A top will come sooner or later.

This particular chart is updated daily but not published on the website routinely, for security reasons.  However, there is a similar flash chart that is displayed daily, located in the Market Snapshot section.

 

 
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Last modified: 3/ 8/2017

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