Caution indicates a
neutral stance on the stock market; stocks could be up one day down
Forecast was last changed on October 14, 2011
Forecast was previously changed on August 4,
The Market Barometer
Forecast is a product of the models that run at particular times of the day,
like pre-open, open, post open, etc. The Forecast can be positive,
caution, or negative.
S&P 500 chart
Market Outlook For Tomorrow
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October 24, 2013, Thursday,
The pre Market Barometer close
model-run change the Short Term Forecast to positive from caution this
afternoon. One model saw a top to the stock market, the other models
saw more upside. The Long Term Forecast will remain at caution.
The rational for the short term
change to positive is as follows:
(1) The market continues higher
in face of overwhelming odds of a correction/ pullback.
(2) Jobs data will be minimal,
unemployment-rate high for months to come.
(3) There really isn't any place
else to put money these days.
(4) The Fed most likely will
hold monetary policy as is until maybe the first or even second quarter 2014
The positive ness could be
short-lived, but for now positive looks good.
Indicator (BLI) suggests that a more sustainable positive U.S. stock market
can continue as long as labor data is subdued; tapering is data
dependant and models do not see much improvement in the labor market until
mid winter; models indicate a positive
outlook for the S&P 500 index for the short term.
Leading Indicator was last changed on
October 24, 2013
Leading Indicator was previously changed on
August 5, 2013
Leading Indicator is a product of the models that run at particular times of
the day. midday, pre close, and post close are some of the scheduled
run times. The
Leading Indicator can be positive, neutral, or negative.
Neutral bias with a
means the stock market could move lower or higher;
conditions appear to be limiting the likelihood of declines;
declines cannot be ruled-out.
Bias was last change on December 5, 2012
Forecast Bias was previously changed on
November 15, 2012
The Forecast Bias is a product
of the models that can run at any time deemed necessary. Big news
event or political happening are times that models can and do run. The
Forecast Bias can be positive, neutral, or negative.
Remember!!! Forecasts are only
good for the fundamentals of the market; news can change the direction
of the market; forecasting cannot predict events with 100% certainty.|