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| Extended Forecast | |
| Market focus- | Thursday- March 11, 2010 | ||
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Investors and traders back from vacation add to already heavy March gains Where will the enthusiasm drop off and fear step in and drive stocks down. The Bear's of the world are getting into position just waiting for the catalysts that begins the sell off.
But Tuesday wasn't that day. Shares of corporate America jumped with the broader market posting near one percent gain. GE and M&A help spurt stocks on. Oil and gold prices ramp up but end off the highs of the session. Tuesday, September 8, 2009
U.S. stock market avoids downgrade with 3/4 percent gain Wednesday A somewhat surprise rally take stocks up and avoids a forecast downgrade. An oil inventory draw surprise sends oil prices rallying taking energy companies along for the ride. shares on the exchanges ended higher Wednesday interrupting a forecast downgrade.
The March rally seems to have been running out of steam lately as some analysts have said the stock market is very ripe for a pullback. But the last two sessions has put the rally back in the spotlight while a growing number of analysts see a pullback looming.
Market Barometer model data is showing a degradation in the metrics that determine forecast changes. Data suggests that Its not if there's going to be a pullback but its when will the pullback begin. Data suggests we could enter a pullback at any time but as most on Wall Street know, its probably not going to happen if everybody is expecting it, at least that's the way it has worked in the past.
The Barometer forecast-bias is at negative, so any additional negative ness most likely will cause a forecast change to caution. That doesn't mean things will go bad. It means just what it says, be cautious. Always watch the bug (upper left corner) for changes. Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Barometer models have been tipping towards the dark side An iffy period seems to be in focus with traders. Meaning, there are plenty of marketeers believing we could pullback soon.
Data from the Barometer models kind of suggest the same thing. But another positive day might get those fears pushed aside, for a time. Friday should be interesting session to see if we can pullout another positive day. It would be real gratifying if we could get the rally to takeoff like the futures showed us Thursday morning before retail sales data quashed sentiment.
Sooner or later we will see a pullback, it will come most likely with a lot of volatility. September-October timeframe is an ideal spot for that to happen. The question is will the market make it to then.
Always watch the Bias and BLI they will move before the forecast does. Thursday, August 13, 2009- UPDATED publication date on Monday, August 17, 2009
Market goes flat ahead of the Federal Reserve two-day FOMC board meeting Midday Monday the U.S. stock market is flat-- just under the unchanged line. While Bernanke and the rest of the FOMC is getting ready for Tuesdays and Wednesdays meeting, investors and traders are content to keep stock prices steady.
The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed funds target rate at .25 percent or below. The market will be focusing on any language changes in the accompanying statement. Good or bad, could drive the market for the short term. Monday, August 10, 2009
New study shows caution could be around the corner- but the forecast still indicates positive Updated Barometer chart shows the mid August rally came in July.
You can always count on the market doing what is unexpected. Data from the models indicate a break in the Barometer pattern. This could mean a change is coming- a top and pullback could occur.
The problem is when. The Barometer plot looks like it could come sooner rather than later but it also could come during the very volatile season in October.
Time will tell. Keep watch on the forecast for changes. Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Barometer models see major leg up in August Unless something changes, model data continues to see mid August as the next major leg up for the U.S. stock market.
The S&P 500 chart [diagonal line on chart] shows a small pullback over the past couple weeks, excluding last weeks rally, that could stand as consolidation. Since this bear market has been so deep maybe this pullback can be chocked up as a correction.
After the projected new leg in August, we might expect a real volatile pullback in the October time frame.
If that occurs, the Barometer forecast outlook will be set to neutral to negative, so always watch the forecast as changes can sometimes happen reputedly. Monday, July 20, 2009
Broader stocks advanced .4 percent, tech added .3 as the Dow Jones ended virtually unchanged Hard to say if Alcoa earnings outlook made a difference in how investors see the recovery and corporate profits as the Dow, choppy all day, ends near unchanged while the broader market ended with gains.
Data from the Market Barometer models show that a small breakout-- one way or the other-- could be just days away. If stocks go positive in the next couple days, the forecast will stay at positive. On the other hand, if we see a couple days of negative performance from stocks, we could be looking at a forecast downgrade to neutral. The Barometer Leading Indicator went negative yesterday, so, the probability is greater that we are going to move down at least for the short-term. Thursday, July 9, 2009
Consumer confidence costs investors 1 percent with hope of last minute rally Stocks dropped sharply Tuesday, on the last trading session of the second quarter, when Consumer Confidence report came in worse than expected. With some shares down 1 to 2 percent, traders look for an up tic in the last minutes of trade as window dressing strategy continues. With a half-hour left in the session, the broader market was down 1.3 percent. Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Market Barometer Forecast methodology indicates a concave recovery for the U.S. stock market Just released. Market Barometer has identified what it has termed as a 'concave recovery' [theoretical premise] using Market Barometer methodology.
Market Barometer Forecast concludes, from it's forecast methodology, that the U.S. stock market is nearly at the midway point of a concave recovery.
Data shows that the stock market has reached, according to Market Barometer methodology, the first inflection point [point where market turns from positive to neutral or negative] of the curve where the market could go sideways or even down until the second inflection point. See the study text and chart.
Market Barometer methodology adopted the term concave recovery to identify the particular pattern of the Barometer plot during a rally off established lows. Since inception of the forecast trials, the methodology had not dealt with this kind of transformation of markets to Barometer methodology.
As this new territory is discovered by the models, the data and any prediction or forecast produced needs to be proved-out in continuing trials. It has taken seven plus years for the trials thus far, although the data and structure looks near foolproof, we must get to the second infection point in order to determine how valid it is.
As with any forecast, this is based on the fundamentals of the market and that any event, goods or bad can alter predictions. Always be prepared for the unknown. Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Stocks dive Monday on global economic fear as the Leading Indicator gets downgraded Trading started much like it ended with widespread selling as the market now looks to the Fed this week with earnings season just around the corner.
The pre close model-run changed the Barometer Leading Indicator to negative as data from the past ten sessions show the market continuing to weaken.
The fear is that the global economic funk is not as close to the bottom as first thought and is not going to emerge from this crises anytime soon. The growing consensus is that stocks have run-up, to a large degree, higher than where earnings or recovery is expected and that a pullback [chart] is much overdue.
With the Fed holding rates under 1/4 percent, the meeting, barring any major surprises, should be a nonevent. Earning and warnings, on the other hand, could be a catalyst for a major pullback or to ramp shares even higher in the coming weeks.
With the price of oil being hit along with stocks, earnings better be a positive eye-opener or we could revisit some past territory on the major indexes. The forecast continues at positive but may not last much longer at that position. Monday, June 22, 2009
Stocks trend lower Tuesday ahead of Alcoa and the start of earnings season With a steady trend lower to near the low of the session, the Dow was off by 1.9 percent, the S&P 500 went negative by 2 percent, and the tech heavy NASDAQ moved lower by 2.3 percent.
Earnings season starts in earnest tomorrow with Alcoa reporting. Investors sell down the U.S. stock market Tuesday ahead of what some think could be a very volatile ride as each company reports. In preparation of that investors take profits ahead of a market that could spike lower. Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Wall Street gets beaten back as shares dive on pullback fear At the noon hour the major indexes were already 2 to 3 percent lower as investors fear the pullback may be getting underway. As the Dollar moves up, oil and stocks drop like a rock. A poor reading of the manufacturing report and the IMF chief talking the global economy down, saying basically that we may not have seen the recession bottom, has given the catalyst for today's selling. The latest Market Barometer [weekend model run] shows that the market may be on the brink of a new leg up. As of midday, the forecast remains the same but that could change towards the close. Monday, June 15, 2009
Model data indicates stock market fundamentals are still good Data from the Market Barometer models continue to suggest that we could be on the verge of a new leg up for stocks that could last 4 to 6 weeks before a pullback. The detail chart- detail look at the November and March bottom- shows that we could be entering a period much like the one from March 10, 2009 to mid May, at which time we start to lose momentum and may have been in a shallow consolidation. Another look at the data- Market Barometer data 2006 through current- can be found in the non-detail chart that shows a better view of the possible breakout from resistance levels. This chart shows an overall view of the current relationship with previous tops and bottoms. We can never over emphasize that any forecast or prediction is for the fundamentals. Bad or good news can turn the market away from the fundamentals. Always be prepared for the unexpected. Saturday, June 13, 2009
Investors feeling confident in rally, push shares up Thursday ahead of data Thursdays stock market saw steady trading with the averages showing gains throughout the afternoon session, posting 1.1 percent at the close [major averages, averaged]. The Government reported today another decline in new unemployment claims which now appears that we may have seen a peak in [new unemployment claims chart] new filings. This may have an effect on Fridays nonfarm report which investors are waiting on. They feel OK with it as stocks continue to rally. The Government released the Productivity report, earlier this morning, showing productivity increases for the first-quarter of 1.8 percent in the business sector and 1.6 percent in the nonfarm business sector. Thursday, June 4, 2009
Today the news saw GM filing for bankruptcy protection and economic data [Manufacturing - Personal Income] that got investors to bid shares higher while Travelers and Cisco Systems got news of their addition to the Dow Jones Industrial index replacing Citi Group and GM. During the midday Barometer model run, the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) was upgraded to neutral. This indicates an improvement in the past couple of sessions, as previously It was thought that a pullback was on the way. Monday, June 1, 2009 |
Stocks dip Monday on global market selling amid mergers and acquisitions Stocks dive Monday but end well off the lows of the session inspired by the global market sell off. The U.S. major indexes posted a half to one percent loss.
Earlier in the session Baker-Hughes announced it would buy BJ Services for 5.5 billion, while Disney said it would buy Marvel Entertainment in a stock and cash deal.
Oil falls sharply Monday below $70.00 bbl as energy stocks helped take the general market lower. Monday, August 31, 2009
Market Barometer model data shows concern for September In a couple of weeks we will be coming up to the 9-11 anniversary. It's always a horrific time with the remembrance of the tragic events that took place that fateful day. And this year will be no different.
This year the Barometer models have earmarked September 9th as a possible concern. A concern in that September 9, 2009 has three 9's in it, if you look at it like 9/9/9.
You can search the Internet and find a lot of negative things attached that number but one that the models have detected and is focused on is the 999 number that has the meaning of-- the end.
In basic computer programming language (machine language), 999 signifies end of program or routine.
The reason the Barometer brings this into focus is that it will factor it into the forecast for that time period. Not only the fact that terrorist like anniversaries and special dates, but even more so, traders and investors can and will react to uncertainty and if this gets much publicity from the media it could effect the markets.
It is to early to know how significant this will turn out to be-- hopefully this will be a non event. But the models will be measuring the focus given to it, as well as reaction in the markets, if this becomes a media event.
One of Market Barometers steadfast rule is-- always be prepared for the unexpected. Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Market Barometer Bias was downgraded to negative from neutral Thanks to global markets, U.S. stock market traders sell down shares of stocks Monday continuing and deepening Fridays selling spree to the tune of 2-1/2 percent.
The pre close Barometer model changed the Forecast-Bias to negative. Data indicates that Tuesday could see more selling with Wednesday possibly turning to a more neutral finish.
If this scenario works out, we could see the Forecast continue at positive. If Wednesdays market sees more selling, we most likely will see a downgrade of the forecast to caution.
Everybody has anticipated this as a pullback. So what does that say. The other scenario is that the market continues higher because everybody has been waiting for the market to correct or pullback. Monday, August 17, 2009- corrected 10:49 pm
Dow ramps up Friday posting three-digit gain with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ in rally mode A better than expected jobs report and unemployment rate sent investors bidding stocks higher ending a two day losing streak.
Basically, traders and investors drove stocks back up, recovering Wednesdays and Thursdays loss and added a touch more. Next week will tell where we go from here as the market will have the weekend to divine strategy.
The DJIA rose 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.3 percent, and the tech heavy NASDAQ rose 1.4 percent. The forecast continues at positive but charts indicate possible trouble ahead. Friday, August 7, 2009
Like the summer of 2003, 2009 looks to be strong for stocks August starts out strong with the major averages ramping up better than 1-percent. The major averages strong start look a lot like the summer of 2003 when, like this time around, the market recovered with a "V" shape.
Market Barometer study show that a new leg up in the stock market would begin in mid August but the Bulls have been pumping up stocks nearly non stop since March. There is a case now that says that stocks could be getting ahead of earnings and that the economic recovery can push stocks prices up just so far.
We had a small pullback from mid June through mid July that could keep prices advancing for the near term. Keep watch on the BLI and Bias for changes that would proceed forecast change. Monday, August 3, 2009
Big rally Wednesday stays further downgrade of forecast After weeks of selling and lackluster performance, stocks came back to life Monday followed by a big rally today that boost the major indexes.
The Dow posting triple digit gains and tech stocks ramping up on Intel Wednesday, surged on prospect that corporations will again make profits and that the economy will mend.
The latest rally has pretty much stayed any forecast downgrade in the works and most likely will begin the process of upgrades if this latest optimism continues. Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Weeks of mostly selling came to an end Monday as stocks soared on optimism After an iffy start, stocks ramped up, never looking back, ending at the highs of the session after Goldman got an upgrade and ahead of major bank earnings reports.
The Dow ended higher by 2.3 percent, the S&P 500 was up by 2.5 percent, and the NASDAQ was up by 2.1 percent. Monday, July 13, 2009
Stocks trend lower Tuesday ahead of Alcoa and the start of earnings season With a steady trend lower to near the low of the session, the Dow was off by 1.9 percent, the S&P 500 went negative by 2 percent, and the tech heavy NASDAQ moved lower by 2.3 percent.
Earnings season starts in earnest tomorrow with Alcoa reporting. Investors sell down the U.S. stock market Tuesday ahead of what some think could be a very volatile ride as each company reports. In preparation of that investors take profits ahead of a market that could spike lower. Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Investors ramp up the stock market sending the averages up 2 percent After a series of reports [GDP and the unemployment] that where mostly expected-- no surprises-- the U.S. stock market opened flat but promptly ramped up in stair step fashion during Bernanke testimony Thursday. Stocks rallied closing 2 percent higher quashing weeks of flat trading.
Economical data released this morning, day after the Fed left rates unchanged, was the GDP final report for the first quarter that showed a contracting economy of 5.5 percent, better than last months report that said GDP contracted slightly more than that.
The other report released this morning was the unemployment report that said initial claims increase by 15,000. Chart data shows a drop in new claims over the months giving some hope that at least that segment of unemployment is trending of the highs which will lead to a drop in the unemployment-rate at some future point.
Market Barometer models discovered, what it has dubbed, a "concave recovery" in its data that indicates that the rally is far form over and that mid August should see a major jump, a new leg up in the continuation of the rally start back in March... more about the release of the concave finding... Thursday, June 25, 2009
Tuesdays performance could very well determine how far the pullback goes Weak start seen for Tuesday. Unless there's a big reason [FOMC - earnings] to go up and continue the rally, it is expected that the market will continue its trek lower. May not be today, but stocks have probably priced in an economic recovery and with the latest news that the recovery may not be as far along as first thought, any bad news from the FOMC or earnings could and most likely will send the market lower into a substantial pullback.
Seesaw session-- stocks end flat-- as traders hit the sidelines and await the Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon. It is widely expected that rates will hold at the zero to 1/4 percent range, but the statement accompanying the announcement will be of interest to most. The market will be looking for any hidden wording or changes in policy that sheds light on the economic recovery and any hints on inflation. Announcement and the statement is scheduled for 2:14p Eastern release, Wednesday. Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Overseas markets traded up last night and reports that the EU recession may have seen the worst, got U.S. investors and traders biding stocks up Friday. The Dow ended off by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 ended up by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ rose 1.1 percent. Barometer models are inching towards another downgrade but with the market lackluster performance it may take a while to get there. No changes seen through midday Monday. Friday turned out ok with the Dow flat, S&P 500 up and NASDAQ way up. Maybe we will bounce around until we can get past the Fed next week-- rates wont change and the wording will/should be mostly non combative. Then there is earning season coming up which probably will give the catalyst to go one way or the other, probably up. Also watch for warnings as companies do not want to surprise anyone with their earnings. In fact, that might be a good test, if we don't see a lot of warnings in the next couple of week, that might mean companies will gave a good earnings report? Friday, June 19, 2009
Smells like a pullback, kind of looks like one, summer slowdown gets underway Investors and traders continue to sell Tuesday as it looks a lot like a pullback, especially as we enter the summer slowdown period, when money drops off as does the market. The market did make it off the lows of the session, in afternoon trade, only to drop back down for the close. The pre close model changed the Leading Indicator to neutral. Data from the model shows the high probability-- especially after such a run-up from the March low-- of a substantial pullback. The major indexes show the Dow sinking 1.3 percent as did the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ was off 1.3 percent. Tuesday, June 16, 2009
No change to the forecast-bias as stocks ramp up leaving the Dow behind The Dow could be adjusting to the newcomers [Cisco Systems - Travelers] and it most likely will get back on track soon. Tech stocks ramp up as the broader market follows but data from the models show the prime metric for the bias upgrade came in just short of the trigger. This really isn't a problem for the forecast as both It and the BLI are positive. If the rally continues the bias will follow with an upgrade. >The last model run of the evening shows building evidence of a major leg higher- the continuation of the rally. As is in most cases a catalyst is needed to get it going but these flat positive days are setting off Barometer metrics that suggest we could go higher into the area of where the correction, overdue, could set up. Not all the data is aligned with this but some are and others could setup to reinforce the next explosion higher. As always, remember this is a forecast and bad news can also have the same more violent effect lower. Tuesday, June 9, 2009
U.S. investors pullback taking profit positioning for Fridays important payroll data With one payroll data point in [ADP] and the nonfarm payroll jobs report- due Friday- investors to eye just how much above 500,000 jobs were lost in May. After several days of upside movement and months of Bullishness, stocks rested Wednesday with the DJIA off by 3/4 percent, NASDAQ off 0.6 percent, and the S&P 500 off by 1.4 percent, well of the lows off the session. Data from the models indicate the possibility of up and down [stock] markets in range bound fashion for days to come. Wednesday, June 3, 2009
After yesterdays sell off, investors bid shares higher recovering some lost ground What's in a day when stocks can turn and ramp up when almost nothing has changed from day to day other than the Treasury auction. Well they did today after yesterdays selling leaving the major averages higher by 1-1/2 percent. Thursday, May 28, 2009
Unable to hold positive territory, GM and DJIA drags market lower as forecast bias is downgraded Afternoon model downgrades the forecast-bias to negative. Data continues to show stocks slipping further, day-by-day, leaving the way open for a correction. Downgrade of the bias sets the stage for a forecast downgrade to caution as early as Thursday. A caution indicates that chances are increasing that there will be further slip in stocks. Model data Leading Indicator "updated" chart shows the Bulls fighting with the Bears over where this market is to go. It would take several positive days to get out of this. A different look at the Leading Indicator chart shows that this market is prepared to move lower if we don't see some real improvement. Wednesday, May 27, 2009
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