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DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST

.Forecast

POSITIVE

.Bias

POSITIVE

.BLI

POSITIVE

Bank stocks sink taking the broader market lower as traders fear little growth as Fed to keep rates near zero

The Federal Reserve FOMC today keeps the interest rate near zero, saying that their intention for the Fed funds target to continue at 0 - 1/4 percent for an extended period of time.  This statement could have an effect over bank growth and investors and traders today took some profits in the banking sector which help drive the broader market lower.

The Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) continues to show negative as data from the models suggest that the stock market could still move lower from present values.  The Forecast maintains a positive outlook, there is still insufficient data to suggest that the March rally is over.  The Forecast Bias is a key indicator [signal] to watch as if it turns negative, the Forecast may not be to far behind.    Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Big rally puts a hold on further Forecast downgrades

Yesterdays afternoon Barometer model-run changed the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) from neutral to negative.  Data indicates that Thursday could be a pivotal session.  Previous Barometer plots suggest, that in this latest leg-up of the March rally, Thursdays action could have decided the near-term fate of the market.

Data from models indicate that more positive days are needed to confidently move stocks higher for the next several weeks.  If Fridays session is positive, the pre-close model-run most likely will reinsert the BLI's neutral stance.

If Fridays stock market ends neutral, mixed, or negative the negative BLI will stand.  The Forecast continues to indicate positive- always keep an eye on the Forecast display.    Thursday, October 29, 2009

Late day sell off as market could be ready for pullback

Stocks tumble late in Wednesdays session as some believe a pullback is near, if not already started.

The failed first test of the S&P 500 1,100 level appears to have taken place early in Wednesday's morning session with stocks immediately moving lower throughout the session until stocks dive in the last hour of trade.

S&P 500 chart shows at least a small pullback or consolidation could happen at any time.  The Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart also shows a new leg-up had failed.

Of course the market will do what it does, but, a pullback sure looks eminent.  Keep watch on the forecast bug for any changes as traders and investors appear to be ready to pull the trigger.    Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Texas Instruments reported third-quarter earnings beating street estimates

TI reported 3rd-Quarter revenue of $2.88 billion, net income of $538 million, and EPS of $0.42 a share.

Texas Instruments earnings release said they were encouraged with the increase in demand for their products as their customers wind down inventory and increase product production levels.  Share were higher in the after-hours session.    Monday, October 19, 2009

Apple beats street estimates powered by iPhone Mac sales

Their fourth-quarter results saw revenue of $9.87 billion, net profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per share.

Gross margin was 36.6 percent, up from 34.7 a year ago.  With smashing computer sales and iPhone sales Apple stock ramps up in the after-hours... more on the Apples earnings report...  Apple and TI results could send the market higher Tuesday.    Monday, October 19, 2009

Stocks ramp up Monday on earnings as more companies with clout report

Stocks ramp up on earnings as money comes in from the sidelines to power this rally higher.  The major indexes posted near one percent gains Monday.

Texas Instruments and Apple reported earnings that beat estimates; share prices rise in after-hours trading.    Monday, October 19, 2009

Cisco Systems to acquire Starent Networks for near $2.9 billion

Cisco announced acquisition of Starent Networks, a mobile operation infrastructure provider.

The terms call for Cisco to pay $35 a Starent share in cash and assume equity awards. Read the press release...      Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Intel reported strong results for the third quarter

Intel reported after the close Tuesday revenue of $9.4 billion, operating income of $2.6 billion and net income of $1.9 billion, easily beating Street estimates.

Gross margin increased to 58 percent, with EPS of 33 Cents.  Intel looks forward to the future with confidence in their execution, products and process...  more on the release...   Tuesday, October 13, 2009

U.S. stock market on a roll, adding more than four percent, as the gains keep rolling in

Stocks were on a trek higher this week, adding more than four percent to the broader market major index. 

Gold settles back to near the 1,050 Dollar level, while oil price continues the push higher.

Earnings season got underway this week with Alcoa reporting a great report, returning to profitability and strengthening their cash position.  Next week more [earnings] reports as investors and traders most likely will pick up the volatility as the good and the bad news is released.

The Barometer Forecast continues to show positive with a neutral bias and neutral Barometer Leading Indicator.    Friday, October 9, 2009

Alcoa earnings report: return to profitability and strengthens cash position

Almost sure to help stocks Thursday, or maybe they'll sell the news, but better than expected results from the aluminum manufacture adds to the foundation of the economic recovery- it's a great sign that we are coming out of the recession.

Reporting better than expected results, the stock is up near 6-percent in after hours trade. Read Alcoa's press release...    Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Big sell off to start the fourth quarter- volatility is back

Hold on as we're in October and tomorrow is the Payroll report where we get the news about the unemployment rate and jobs lost for September.  Its sure to be a bumpy ride but next week after things settle down? we'll take a look to see if this is the pullback everybody has been waiting on.

Later on this evening the Maps department will have more information that we can use for modeling...  Meanwhile the forecast continues at positive.

We now have a more current chart that shows the progress of the pullback.  It's to early to tell how deep the pullback will be but the chart gives you an idea of its progress.

Go to the Barometer Leading Indicator Detail Chart and click the chart to launch the advance version.   Thursday, October 1, 2009

Broader market rests while tech found M&A for a catalysts

Dell computer company announced it would acquire Perot Systems, an IT service and consulting business, for near 3.9 billion.  Share price of Perot Systems jump while Dell moves lower on the news.

The Dow lost 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 was off by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ had a slight gain of 0.2 percent.   Monday, September 21, 2009

This new leg up of the past two weeks could be nearing an end

Stocks cannot go up forever without a pullback.  Data shows this latest ramping of the stock market could be at an end, but not for the March rally.

The march 2009 rally could extend out for years.  But pullbacks and consolidation periods are very necessary for the health of the markets.  A new chart study indicates that stocks have run-up to fast to quickly and that a pullback most likely is near- or at least a long consolidation period.

The counter to all of this is, everybody is looking for a pullback so that those that were left behind in the rally can get in at a lower level- but we all know that what we expect and get are most always two different things... more on the new chart study...   Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Investors and traders back from vacation add to already heavy March gains

Where will the enthusiasm drop off and fear step in and drive stocks down.  The Bear's of the world are getting into position just waiting for the catalysts that begins the sell off.

But Tuesday wasn't that day.  Shares of corporate America jumped with the broader market posting near one percent gain.  GE and M&A help spurt stocks on.  Oil and gold prices ramp up but end off the highs of the session.   Tuesday, September 8, 2009

U.S. stock market avoids downgrade with 3/4 percent gain Wednesday

A somewhat surprise rally take stocks up and avoids a forecast downgrade.  An oil inventory draw surprise sends oil prices rallying taking energy companies along for the ride.  shares on the exchanges ended higher Wednesday interrupting a forecast downgrade.

The March rally seems to have been running out of steam lately as some analysts have said the stock market is very ripe for a pullback.  But the last two sessions has put the rally back in the spotlight while a growing number of analysts see a pullback looming.

Market Barometer model data is showing a degradation in the metrics that determine forecast changes.  Data suggests that Its not if there's going to be a pullback but its when will the pullback begin.  Data suggests we could enter a pullback at any time but as most on Wall Street know, its probably not going to happen if everybody is expecting it, at least that's the way it has worked in the past.

The Barometer forecast-bias is at negative, so any additional negative ness most likely will cause a forecast change to caution.  That doesn't mean things will go bad.  It means just what it says, be cautious.  Always watch the bug (upper left corner) for changes.   Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Barometer models have been tipping towards the dark side

An iffy period seems to be in focus with traders.  Meaning, there are plenty of marketeers believing we could pullback soon.

Data from the Barometer models kind of suggest the same thing.  But another positive day might get those fears pushed aside, for a time.  Friday should be interesting session to see if we can pullout another positive day.  It would be real gratifying if we could get the rally to takeoff like the futures showed us Thursday morning before retail sales data quashed sentiment.

Sooner or later we will see a pullback, it will come most likely with a lot of volatility.  September-October timeframe is an ideal spot for that to happen.  The question is will the market make it to then.

Always watch the Bias and BLI they will move before the forecast does.   Thursday, August 13, 2009- UPDATED publication date on Monday, August 17, 2009

Market goes flat ahead of the Federal Reserve two-day FOMC board meeting

Midday Monday the U.S. stock market is flat--  just under the unchanged line.  While Bernanke and the rest of the FOMC is getting ready for Tuesdays and Wednesdays meeting, investors and traders are content to keep stock prices steady.

The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed funds target rate at .25 percent or below.  The market will be focusing on any language changes in the accompanying statement.  Good or bad, could drive the market for the short term.   Monday, August 10, 2009

New study shows caution could be around the corner- but the forecast still indicates positive

Updated Barometer chart shows the mid August rally came in July.

You can always count on the market doing what is unexpected.  Data from the models indicate a break in the Barometer pattern.  This could mean a change is coming- a top and pullback could occur.

The problem is when.  The Barometer plot looks like it could come sooner rather than later but it also could come during the very volatile season in October.

Time will tell.  Keep watch on the forecast for changes.   Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Barometer models see major leg up in August

Unless something changes, model data continues to see mid August as the next major leg up for the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 chart [diagonal line on chart] shows a small pullback over the past couple weeks, excluding last weeks rally, that could stand as consolidation.  Since this bear market has been so deep maybe this pullback can be chocked up as a correction. 

After the projected new leg in August, we might expect a real volatile pullback in the October time frame. 

If that occurs, the Barometer forecast outlook will be set to neutral to negative, so always watch the forecast as changes can sometimes happen reputedly.   Monday, July 20, 2009

Broader stocks advanced .4 percent, tech added .3 as the Dow Jones ended virtually unchanged

Hard to say if Alcoa earnings outlook made a difference in how investors see the recovery and corporate profits as the Dow, choppy all day, ends near unchanged while the broader market ended with gains.

Data from the Market Barometer models show that a small breakout--  one way or the other--  could be just days away.  If stocks go positive in the next couple days, the forecast will stay at positive.  On the other hand, if we see a couple days of negative performance from stocks, we could be looking at a forecast downgrade to neutral.  The Barometer Leading Indicator went negative yesterday, so, the probability is greater that we are going to move down at least for the short-term.   Thursday, July 9, 2009

Consumer confidence costs investors 1 percent with hope of last minute rally

Stocks dropped sharply Tuesday, on the last trading session of the second quarter, when Consumer Confidence report came in worse than expected.  With some shares down 1 to 2 percent, traders look for an up tic in the last minutes of trade as window dressing strategy continues.  With a half-hour left in the session, the broader market was down 1.3 percent.   Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Market Barometer Forecast methodology indicates a concave recovery for the U.S. stock market

Just released.  Market Barometer has identified what it has termed as a 'concave recovery' [theoretical premise] using Market Barometer methodology.

Market Barometer Forecast concludes, from it's forecast methodology, that the U.S. stock market is nearly at the midway point of a concave recovery.

Data shows that the stock market has reached, according to Market Barometer methodology, the first inflection point [point where market turns from positive to neutral or negative] of the curve where the market could go sideways or even down until the second inflection point.  See the study text and chart.

Market Barometer methodology adopted the term concave recovery to identify the particular pattern of the Barometer plot during a rally off established lows.  Since inception of the forecast trials, the methodology had not dealt with this kind of transformation of markets to Barometer methodology.

As this new territory is discovered by the models, the data and any prediction or forecast produced needs to be proved-out in continuing trials.  It has taken seven plus years for the trials thus far, although the data and structure looks near foolproof, we must get to the second infection point in order to determine how valid it is.

As with any forecast, this is based on the fundamentals of the market and that any event, goods or bad can alter predictions.  Always be prepared for the unknown.   Wednesday, June 24, 2009

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