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U.S. Stock Market Crawls Back To Near Unchanged After A Depressed Start

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Asian stock markets posted mixed results Tuesday while European markets, several hours ahead of U.S. markets, were showing negative sessions, as traders and investors get concerned over China's price hike and economic slowdown.


U.S. stocks were set to open lower amid pressure from global markets.  Futures pointed to a modest decline at the start of business Tuesday.


Barometer models were set to upgrade the BLI, the short-term forecast, to positive Tuesday but markets correcting halted the model action.  Data does suggest that the inching-along higher for U.S. stocks is still intact.


After being significantly lower at the start of trade Tuesday, equities crawl back, almost making it back to unchanged, but fell short.  The major indexes recoup most of the sessions early loss, to end just short off breakeven.


Another Positive Day For Wall Street Lead By Tech (Apple) Shares

Monday, March 19, 2012

Stock rise Monday on the heals of Apple's dividend and repurchase announcement.


Traders and investors send stocks higher Monday as Wall Street gets ready for earnings season with preannouncements just ahead.


Tech shares (NASDAQ) ramp the market up with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ modestly higher, while the Dow index ended slightly higher, posting flat results on the session.


There Is No Stopping This Market;  Stocks Continue To Rise- Can It Last?

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Stocks start out in positive mode, turn mixed in the midmorning session.  Economic data had little effect over the strategy of the market makers as stocks continue to crawl and inch higher with little pullbacks.


Jobless new claims --chart-- continue to show an improving jobs market with first time claims of 351,000 last week, that's down 14,000 from the previous week.


Producer prices increased nearly 1/2 percent in February while the core index was up 0.2 percent.  Core price is the CPI less volatile food and energy.


Stocks in the U.S. keep on moving higher.  There is no stopping this market.  This could be the calm before the storm.  Models continue, for now, to show a neutral short-term forecast and a caution for the long-term.


Traders Ramp Stocks Higher Tuesday But Stress Test Hit Some Banks In The After Hours Market

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

U.S. stocks get off to a spiffy start Tuesday as the global community awaits the Fed FOMC monetary policy announcement later this afternoon.


Stocks steady climb higher Tuesday, ramp-up going into the close.  Fed FOMC keeps funds target rate unchanged, as expected, says to keep rates accommodative.


Fed releases stress test of banks that show some failures;  initial reaction, after hours, was quick and harsh but as the details emerge traders are getting details of who failed and who passed and the quick to announce bank buybacks.


Today's rally brought to you by banks that could be the reason for a pullback tomorrow if traders and investors are concerned.

The Fed announced results of the latest bank stress tests which showed that the majority of the largest U.S. bank holding companies (banks) would continue to meet expectations for capital adequacy despite large simulated losses in an adverse hypothetical economic scenario.

The Federal Reserve evaluates the capital planning processes and capital adequacy of the largest bank holding companies.  The exercise includes a supervisory stress test to evaluate whether banks would have sufficient capital in times of severe economic and financial stress.

The hypothetical economic scenario included peak unemployment rate of 13 percent;  a 50 percent drop in equity prices;  a 21 percent decline in housing prices.  Losses at the 19 banks were estimated to total $534 billion during the hypothetical stress test.

How all this plays out Wednesday is a guess at this point.  Although Asian markets are not having a problem driving stocks up midday Wednesday, local.

European market, hours away from opening, will give a better idea of how the U.S. will handle the news in the pre market.

Forecasts remain caution for the long-term and neutral for the BLI short-term.



Fed releases rate statement and stress test results


New Week, Same Old Market, Fed On Deck For One Day Meeting- Rates To Remain Unchanged

Monday, March 12, 2012

U.S. stock market got off to a slow flat start Monday as traders and investors decide strategy;  waiting on the Fed meeting is the next big thing.


Asia Pacific stocks ended mixed while the European markets traded mixed most of the session, ending mostly positive as European's await the Fed meeting.


Steady climb higher for the Dow, S&P 500 lagging somewhat, with the NASDAQ well in negative territory going into the close Monday.


The Dow Jones industrials close with a slight gain Monday while the tech heavy NASDAQ ended slightly lower;  meanwhile, the S&P 500 ends virtually unchanged.


Very slow grind higher for stocks.  The Fed FOMC meeting tomorrow could recharge the market.  A one day meeting by the FOMC is expected to leave rates unchanged and expand on bank stress test.



Fed FOMC meeting to leave rates unchanged


ISDA Credit Event Occurred, Auction To Resolve Outstanding CDS;  U.S. Markets Little Changed

Friday, March 9, 2012

Like clockwork, stocks grind higher Friday, nearly all daylong, on Greece deal and payroll report that show a continuation of the U.S. economic recovery.


The nonfarm payroll jobs report, released this morning, sent stock futures higher which translated into a ramp-up for stocks, early on in the session.


227,000 new jobs were added to the economy while the unemployment rate held steady at 8.3 percent.


Stocks sideways traded for most of the session until the ISDA triggered a credit event on Greece debt.


The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) today resolved that a Greek credit event had occurred.  The EMEA committee stated that an auction on March 19, 2012 would be held with respect to the outstanding CDS transaction.


Asia Pacific markets could react negatively Monday morning, Sunday evening in the U.S., while it is too early to tell how the European markets will trend with respect to the news.


The U.S. acted somewhat muted to the news but futures and the morning trading Monday will be influenced by how Europe performs.



U.S. created 227,000 new jobs in February

Unemployment rate held at 8.3 percent


Greece Credit Crisis Nearing And End With The Vast Majority Of Bond Holders Accepting The Deal, Reportedly

Thursday, March 8, 2012

U.S. futures pointed to the continuation of the global rally on Greece compliance with its debtors.


It all started Wednesday after the Dow had dropped 200 plus points on Tuesday.  The U.S. ramped-up after Europe markets closed Wednesday, which was carried over to the Asian markets, and then onto European markets on Thursday.


It appears from reports that the Greece debt crisis is nearing closure Thursday with a vast majority of bond holders accepting the Eurozone/ ECB orchestrated deal.  Stocks around the globe rally.


Tomorrows payroll jobs report could be key in continuing the rally or pulling back, like some market analysts believe.  A strong jobs creation report could be the catalyst for the rally.  The jobless new claims report and ADP data indicate new created jobs of something north of 200,000;  unemployment rate off possibly 8.2 percent.



Jobs creation north of 200,000 is expected Friday

New jobless claims rose slightly last week- chart


U.S. Stock Market Rallies After Down Day Tuesday As Greece Nears Debt Compliance While Markets Upbeat On Data

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Stocks rallied Wednesday, the day after the Dow dropped 200 points, as Greece again gets a positive spotlight with it nearing agreement with its debtors.


Jobs data in focus by the markets Wednesday as a good ADP report today, hope for a good jobless new claims report tomorrow, and the big payroll report Friday, where markets are expecting a jobs number north of 200,000.


Stocks recover some of yesterdays losses with the Dow taking back 78 of the 200 plus points, S&P 500 up 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ up 0.9 percent.



The short-term forecast continues at neutral

The long-term forecast indicates caution

Models continue to see a pullback

Jobless new claims data up on deck for tomorrow

Payroll jobs creation and unemployment rate up Friday


Global Growth Concerns And The Greek Debt Swap Take Markets For A Ride Lower Tuesday

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Global markets turn down in Unison Tuesday on concerns over economic growth;  China Monday revised their GDP lower.


Greek debt swap is coming up this week and the fear is that measures in place wont help Greece from a disorderly default.


Growing concerns over Israel attacking Iran continues to become a focus, contributing to the global jitters.


U.S. stocks dive Tuesday as growing concerns over global GDP brings sellers out in droves.  Greece debt swap concerns are also on traders and investors radar screens.  Dow slides over 200 points.


Dow Jones And The S&P 500 Tried For The Unchanged Line, Meanwhile, The NASDAQ Ended Deep In Negative Territory

Monday, March 5, 2012

China's revision to GDP and factory orders spook traders, sending buyers to the sidelines Monday.


Buyers made a comeback, tried to get the broader market back to the unchanged line, but selling pressure was to great.


The NASDAQ ended well in negative territory help along by heavyweight Apple, while the DJIA and the S&P 500 ended down but well off the lows of the session.


Stocks Meander In Mixed Mode As Traders Look To Next Week To Get March Going

Friday, March 2, 2012

Little news or data to move markets as traders and investors close February and look to the weekend for rest and to start out a fresh Monday.


U.S. equity market opened Friday slightly off with Europe markets mostly positive and Asia Pacific markets posting positive end to their Fridays session.


Stocks held close to the unchanged-line, drifting as markets ready themselves for more Europe news with Greece deadline approaching and earnings preannouncements on deck.


U.S. equity market fell short, closing with  a minor loss Friday, as traders wrap up a week that saw window dressing for February, a start to a new month and preparations for Greece debt deadline coming up later in the month.



The short-term forecast remains at neutral

The long-term forecast continues at caution

Models continue to see a pullback soon to arrive


Durable Goods Took Stocks Into Negative Territory, But Consumer Confidence Revives Buyers, Taking Stocks For A Gain

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Durable goods orders disappoint markets Tuesday in the U.S. and Europe, sending European markets lower and U.S. futures to indicate a flat open.


Stocks open in negative territory Tuesday but was short-lived as the Consumer Confidence report sent stock into positive territory.


Gas and oil prices are becoming more of a focus for markets which could have an effect over the stock market as higher prices start to be troublesome for the economic recovery.


U.S. Equities Continue To Grind Higher Ending Virtually Unchanged Monday

Monday, February 27, 2012

Monday got off to a negative start but mid session saw buyers come back to drive stocks higher into positive territory.


Near the close the Dow backed away from 13,000 to end flat while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended slightly higher.


Short Slow Week For Equities But Oil Prices Surge As Forecast Is Downgraded

Friday, February 24, 2012

Asia Pacific and European stock markets mostly positive Friday leading the U.S. to a neutral open.


U.S. gets off to a positive start Friday on earnings and less worry.  Asia Pacific stocks end mixed while European stocks posted mostly positive results Friday.


Yesterday afternoon Barometer model-run changed the BLI- short term forecast- to neutral from positive on support level violation.  The S&P 500 index wasn't able to hold above 1365, a rolling support level that the model indicated as important.


Split market Friday with the Dow closing slightly lower, the broader market up slightly, and tech up nearly 1/4 percent.  The week saw a Monday holiday and a very slow four days but able to eke out a small gain on all major indices.


U.S. Equity Market Held Onto Gains Thursday But The Short Term Forecast (BLI) Was Downgraded

Thursday, February 23, 2012

With the S&P 500 close to a breakdown, stocks look to rebound from Wednesdays selling.  Futures point to a neutral to positive open ahead of the unemployment new claims report.


The Government reported new unemployment claims -chart- was unchanged from the previous week.  Futures trend lower indicating a neutral to mixed open.


According to model data, the S&P 500 must stay above 1365 Thursday in order to avoid a downgrade which would indicate a good chance of a market pullback if that level were to be breached.


Stocks open down as traders and analysts feel that the market is ready for a pullback.  If the S&P 500 stays below 1365, for a substantial time intra session, Market Barometer models would agree.


The U.S. major indices report gains Thursday while the afternoon model run downgraded the BLI short term forecast to neutral from positive. The S&P 500 held below key model support (S&P 500 1365) that indicates a growing chance that the market is running out of steam, that a pullback/ correction could be within a few sessions of moving lower.


Greece, Oil & Gas, Israel & Iran, And S&P 500 1360 Take Center Stage

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Global markets mixed Wednesday on the Greece news.  Greek deal approved but now the worry is whether Greece can execute the steps necessary to actually get the money by its March deadline.


Futures for the U.S. showed flat start with Asia Pacific markets posting mixed results and Europe markets all showing red mid session Wednesday.


Stocks meander Wednesday as the market appears to be looking for direction.  The Dow and S&P 500 ended down slightly while the NASDAQ sank 1/2 percent.


Models this evening will be spinning as the S&P 500 broke below 1360, a Barometer support level.  We could see a downgrade this evening or Thursday if the S&P 500 can't punch back through.


The BLI model-run indicates further weakness in the S&P 500 Thursday most likely will cause a downgrade of the BLI.  The BLI is the short-term forecast that currently is positive (Wednesday) but could be changed to neutral Thursday.


Any downgrade of the current forecast could affect Asia Pacific markets as well as the European markets.  U.S. markets are trying to disconnect from the European markets but European market probably will be unable to withstand the U.S. market pullback without following suite.



More info on Thursdays outlook


Dow Sees 13,000, Backs Off After A Greek Deal, Ahead Of New Threats- Oil & Gas

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

With Greece somewhat out of the picture, stocks in all zones can expect to refocus on fundamentals.


A Greece deal was finally agreed upon by all parties Monday night, with a deal reached that satisfied most markets.  Markets can now refocus on other points that are now coming to light.


Oil and gas prices are becoming a focus for traders as well as earnings. The U.S. stock market has steadily risen giving way for most if not all market moguls to annunciate a pullback or a correction.


A correction can come at any time but Market Barometer models continue to indicate a (BLI) positive short term with a cautionary long term outlook for the U.S. stock market.



Greece deal was hard to come by- history

Short-term forecast (BLI) indicates positive


U.S. Stock Market Rallied Thursday On Jobless New claims and Housing Starts And Oh Yea, Greece

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Thursday looked like, at best, a flat session but stocks ramped up, decoupling from Sister markets, to rally over one-percent.


The on again off again Greek bailout had little substance for trades, as the driver today appears to be jobless new claims data [chart] as well as housing starts.  Collating sentiment and ramping the U.S. stock market higher Thursday, as more and more investors trickle into the U.S. stock market.


U.S. Stock Buyers Were Sidelined Wednesday As They Look For Market Direction

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Reports that China will support, in some fashion, Europe's debt issues;  Asian markets rally Wednesday helping Europe and U.S. stock markets to positive starts.


Lots of news Wednesday to assimilate.  Traders and investors fade from the buy side of bidding shares up, with the Fed notes out today and China news of helping out with the Eurozone debt crisis, as well as the talking-heads in Europe that seem to make for a very confusing session Wednesday.  It's easier to sell at this point, with the momentum, until Wall Street direction is established.


Global Equity Markets Rallied Monday On Greece's Approval Of The Debt Deal Avoiding An Imminent Default

Monday, February 13, 2012

A reversal from last weeks losses, the U.S. stock market starts with a rally following global markets positive ness on Greece approval of debt relief measures.


A Greece deal, over the weekend, sees markets around the World rally as Greece fades and markets prepare for the next sovereign to become a focus.


The Dow Jones Industrials closed up 0.6 percent, the NASDAQ ended up by nearly 1-percent, and the S&P 500 posted a 0.7 percent gain.


Greece has had a long history of debt problems that's been a focus for the U.S. markets since the summer months.  Traders are now ready to focus on the economy and U.S. companies and hopefully avoid any more Euro Land turmoil.


U.S. Stock Market Pulled Back While Greece Deal Got Rejected

Friday, February 10, 2012

Greece accepted deal measures but appears not deep enough for the EU, as leaders reject the deal.


With probable overbought conditions in the U.S. stock market, futures point to a pullback Friday.


Stocks fell Friday after making nice gains to start the year.  The Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent while the NASDAQ ended down 0.8 percent.


U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher With Economic Data Becoming More In Focus Replacing Greek Debt Drama

Thursday, February 9, 2012

A deal in Greece to accept reforms changed U.S. futures little Thursday morning as markets await the details.


Cautiously U.S. stocks advance Thursday morning ahead of Greece Eurozone debt deal details.  European stock markets report positive heading to the European close.


The economy continues to improve as unemployment new claims show improving conditions, albeit slow to develop.  As of last week, there were 358,000 new claims, down 15,000 from the previous weeks report.


The broader market hovers above the unchanged-line Thursday with tech NASDAQ shares continuing to outperform the market.  Details of the Greece debt fix is sketchy and markets await more detailed information of the deal made in the Eurozone crisis.


U.S. stocks end in positive territory Thursday as the slow grind higher continues with tech shares leading.


Greece accepts austerity measures but the deal to get the bailout money hinges on more approvals in the EU.  So the Euro Area debt crisis continues.


Traders are getting use to the ups and downs of the crisis as all they really need to do is compare what is going on over there to how that would play out in the U.S.


The same scenario here would be gridlock.  Just think how all that negotiations would get handled here with the House divided and getting all the states to agree on anything.  Total gridlock.


Tech Stocks And Bank of America Lead Equities Higher Wednesday While Cisco Could lead Markets Higher Thursday

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Greece takes center stage, again, as markets around the globe continue to react to nearly each EU headline.


U.S. stocks opened flat, trend higher, continuing to grind out gains early in Wednesdays session.


No major news out of Europe saw the U.S. equity market end cautiously higher with the Dow Jones Index up slightly, the S&P 500, broader market of stocks, moderately higher, and the NASDAQ, continuing to outperforming, posting nearly 1/2 percent gain.


So much can happen overnight that trying to predict the open is near impossible, for the most part.  Cisco has, in past times, been able to do that but Greece and Eurozone news dominates focus.


With BofA's rally Thursday and Cisco Systems Earnings beat, we could see a positive session Thursday pending EU news and their markets which get a head start to our open.


Stocks Reverse Direction Posting A Gain Tuesday On Hope That Greece Debt Talks Make Progress

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Greece maintains is dominance over markets as the U.S. market got underway in negative territory Tuesday.  Asian markets ended mostly in the red with European equity markets showing red as well.


Stocks make U-turn, head back higher, crossing into positive territory, trending with the Euro.  The Fed may not be done with helping the economy as talk of QE3 is back on the table for traders focus.  Reports that Greece is close to resolving its debt default issues is close to resolution.


Stocks Rest After Fridays Jobs Unemployment Report As Greece Worries Are Back In Focus

Monday, February 6, 2012

Fridays jobs report was good for a global rally, but Monday the focus is back on Europe and Greece debt issues.  U.S. stocks set for negative start while Europe markets continue to degrade, Asia Pacific socks ended Monday mixed.


Stocks consolidate Monday with the market indexes trailing just under the unchanged line.  The Dow Jones indexes closed down 0.1%, the NASDAQ down 0.1%, and the S&P 500 ended virtually unchanged.


U.S. Equities Rallied On An Unexpected Bullish Jobs Report, While The BLI Was Restored Back To Positive

Friday, February 3, 2012

The Government reported, this morning before the open, that January saw 243,000 new jobs created, well above estimates of around 170,000.  The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent.


Futures immediately ramped-up showing rally for the open.  Stocks got into high gear rallying all session long closing virtually at the highs.


The BLI- short term forecast- was downgraded last evening on model data that indicated extra caution for today's session.  Since, models have reinstated the BLI back to positive with the caveat of a probable watch for next week after the jobs data loses focus and trades comeback into more of a fundamental line.


This by no means, means that a pullback is expected.  Stocks could continue positive or as easily pullback.  We'll have a better sense of what momentum is left by late morning Monday.



The economy adds 243,000 new jobs

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent


The Broader Market Of Stocks End Flat While Tech Stocks Continue To Outperforming The Rest Of The Market

Thursday, February 2, 2012

U.S. unemployment new claims data show slight decrease in initial claims.  U.S. stocks are set to open flat Thursday.


Stocks set for flat possible mixed start as traders await Fridays highly anticipated payroll jobs creation and unemployment rate report.


Mixed market after initial claims and ahead of jobs payroll tomorrow.  Tech advanced on Thursday with the broader market flat and the Dow Jones Index slightly negative.


The late evening Barometer model-run changed the short term forecast to neutral from positive as model data suggest a chance that the S&P 500 will not hold Barometer support Friday.


Manufacturing Data And Eurozone Hope Sent A Very Cautious Market Higher Ahead Of Facebook Filing

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Futures pointed to positive open Wednesday as markets get ready for Facebook filing.  Global markets ramp up continuing yesterdays European rally.


The S&P 500 index closed yesterday (Tuesday) just above the 1308 Barometer support level.  A close at or lower would have triggered a downgrade of the BLI Short-term indicator to neutral.


U.S. Equity Market Posted Mixed Results Tuesday After A Mostly Negative Day On This Last Session Of January

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Global markets set the tone for the U.S. open Tuesday.  Stocks in the U.S. get off to a positive start on hope that Greece is making headway on Her debt crisis talks.


Almost a repeat of yesterdays market except the tech index posted a small gain today.  Stock indexes report a nice profitable January with hope for a carryover to February.


Monday Turned Out Not To Be So Bad For The Bulls With U.S. Stocks Making Their Way Back To Near Unchanged

Monday, January 30, 2012

Fitch Ratings gets markets back to thinking Europe debt crisis as U.S. futures, Monday, set the stage for a sell off for the equity market.


Equities sell off, in early morning trade, with the Dow hitting triple digit loss.  After the 10-oclock hour, stocks reverse direction  with the major indexes heading for the unchanged line.  Stocks end the session in the red but well off the low of the session.


Market Barometer models continue to indicate a BLI (short term forecast) of positive.  The long term forecast remains at caution.


2.8 GDP Disappointed Markets Sending U.S. Broader Market To A Flat End Friday As European Stocks Turn Negative On The News

Friday, January 27, 2012

Markets looked somewhat healthy going towards the open Friday until GDP data sent global markets negative and the U.S. futures lower.


GDP, for the fourth quarter 2011, came in at 2.8 percent, lower than had been expected.  Global markets immediately dived into negative territory Friday, setting the U.S. up for a negative session and possibly the catalyst for a correction pullback.


U.S. broader market of stocks ended flat Friday after a disappointing GDP number.  European markets turned on the news, ending in negative territory.  Asia Pacific markets had already closed.


The U.S. broader market ended the week flat with NASDAQ posting a small gain.  The BLI, short term forecast, continues to indicate positive.


A Day Of Rest Or Was Thursdays Negative End The Beginning Of A Pullback

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Fed meeting concludes said to keep rates accommodative to late 2014 and introduces tables and charts of projection inspiring the global markets to rally Thursday.


U.S. equity market rested Thursday, pulling back near 1/2 percent, after a very starch upward start to the year.  The S&P 500 traded out of the Summer Fall trading range, now trading in the outer limits, as some believe the market is ripe for at least a correction.


Friday and Mondays market could be the answer to whether the U.S. stock market corrects or not.  The BLI, a short term forecast indicator, continues to indicate positive for equities.  The long term forecast continues at caution.


Unemployment new claims data, although increased last week, shows the job market is getting better, albeit very very slow.  After a surge in claims, recent data [chart] show a descending new claims number which will help in 2012 jobs creation.


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Traders Alert- New High-End Mobile Display

Trader platforms now link to the forecast page on the .com site, follow this link...  As always traders get the first look at the forecast change before the general internet public.  The .mobi site is no longer updated with forecast change- chalkboard.


Market Barometer has a 'Market On Mobile' beta .mobi site so that you can display pertinent information, like the chalkboard, on your mobile device.  You can go directly to Market-Barometer.mobi site and get the info you need without the hassle of a desktop or laptop.


On your mobile device, go to Market-Barometer.com and click on the mobile icon on select pages, like the chalkboard.


The beta .mobi site is still in the works but the chalkboard will contain any pertinent forecast information.


High-end personal technology devises such as the iPhone, iPad, Android, and trader platforms with internet connection can load up the Forecast chalkboard to see the latest model strategy.




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