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Bank stocks sink taking the broader market lower as traders fear little growth
as Fed to keep rates near zero
The Federal Reserve FOMC today keeps the interest rate
near zero, saying that their intention for the Fed funds target to
continue at 0 - 1/4 percent for an extended period of time. This statement
could have an effect over bank growth and investors and traders today took some
profits in the banking sector which help drive the broader market lower.
The Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) continues to show negative as
data from the models suggest that the stock market could still move lower from
present values. The Forecast maintains a positive outlook, there is still
insufficient data to suggest that the March rally is over. The Forecast
Bias is a key indicator [signal] to watch as if it turns negative, the Forecast
may not be to far behind.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Big rally puts a
hold on further Forecast downgrades
Yesterdays afternoon Barometer model-run changed the
Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) from neutral to negative.
Data indicates that Thursday could be a pivotal session. Previous
Barometer plots suggest, that in this latest leg-up of the March rally,
Thursdays action could have decided the near-term fate of the market.
Data from models indicate that more positive days
are needed to confidently move stocks higher for the next several weeks.
If Fridays session is positive, the pre-close model-run most likely will
reinsert the BLI's neutral stance.
If Fridays stock market ends neutral, mixed, or
negative the negative BLI will stand. The Forecast continues to indicate
positive- always keep an eye on the Forecast display.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Late day sell
off as market could be ready for pullback
Stocks tumble late in Wednesdays session as some
believe a pullback is near, if not already started.
The failed first test of the S&P 500 1,100 level
appears to have taken place early in Wednesday's morning session with stocks
immediately moving lower throughout the session until stocks dive in the last
hour of trade.
S&P 500 chart shows at least a small pullback
or consolidation could happen at any time. The
Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart also
shows a new leg-up had failed.
Of course the market will do what it does, but, a
pullback sure looks eminent. Keep watch on the forecast bug for any
changes as traders and investors appear to be ready to pull the trigger.
Wednesday, October 21,
2009
Texas Instruments reported third-quarter earnings beating street estimates
TI reported 3rd-Quarter revenue of $2.88 billion,
net income of $538 million, and EPS of $0.42 a share.
Texas Instruments earnings release said they
were encouraged with the increase in demand for their products as their
customers wind down inventory and increase product production levels.
Share were higher in the after-hours session.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Apple beats
street estimates powered by iPhone Mac sales
Their fourth-quarter results saw revenue of $9.87
billion, net profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per share.
Gross margin was 36.6 percent, up from 34.7 a year
ago. With smashing computer sales and iPhone sales Apple stock ramps up in
the after-hours...
more on the Apples earnings report...
Apple and TI results could send the market higher Tuesday.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Stocks ramp up Monday on earnings as more companies with clout report
Stocks
ramp up on earnings as money comes in from the sidelines to power this rally
higher. The major indexes posted near one percent gains Monday.
Texas
Instruments and Apple reported earnings that beat estimates; share prices rise
in after-hours trading.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Cisco
Systems to acquire Starent Networks for near $2.9 billion
Cisco announced acquisition of Starent Networks, a
mobile operation infrastructure provider.
The terms call for Cisco to pay $35 a Starent share
in cash and assume equity awards.
Read the press release...
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Intel reported
strong results for the third quarter
Intel reported after the close Tuesday revenue of
$9.4 billion, operating income of $2.6 billion and net income of $1.9 billion,
easily beating Street estimates.
Gross margin increased to 58 percent, with EPS of 33
Cents. Intel looks forward to the future with confidence in their
execution, products and process...
more on the release...
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
U.S. stock market on a roll, adding more than four
percent, as the gains keep rolling in
Stocks were on a trek higher this week, adding more
than four percent to the
broader market major index.
Gold settles back to near the 1,050 Dollar
level, while oil price
continues the push higher.
Earnings season got underway this week with Alcoa
reporting a great report, returning to profitability and strengthening their
cash position. Next week more [earnings] reports as investors and traders
most likely will pick up the volatility as the good and the bad news is
released.
The
Barometer Forecast continues to show positive with a neutral bias and
neutral Barometer Leading Indicator.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Alcoa earnings report: return to profitability and strengthens
cash position
Almost sure to help stocks Thursday, or maybe
they'll sell the news, but better than expected results from the aluminum
manufacture adds to the foundation of the economic recovery- it's a great sign
that we are coming out of the recession.
Reporting better than expected results, the stock is
up near 6-percent in after hours trade.
Read Alcoa's press release...
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Big sell
off to start the fourth quarter- volatility is back
Hold on as we're in October and tomorrow is the Payroll report where we get the
news about the unemployment rate and jobs lost for September. Its sure to
be a bumpy ride but next week after things settle down? we'll take a look to see
if this is the pullback everybody has been waiting on.
Later on this evening the Maps department will have
more information that we can use for modeling...
Meanwhile the forecast continues at positive.
We now have
a more current chart that shows the progress of the pullback. It's
to early to tell how deep the pullback will be but the chart gives you an idea
of its progress.
Go to the
Barometer Leading Indicator Detail Chart and
click the chart to launch the advance
version.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Broader market rests while tech found M&A for a catalysts
Dell computer company announced it would acquire
Perot Systems, an IT service and consulting business, for near 3.9 billion.
Share price
of Perot Systems jump while Dell moves lower on the news.
The Dow lost 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 was off by 0.4
percent, and the NASDAQ had a slight gain of 0.2 percent.
Monday, September 21, 2009
This new leg up of the past two weeks could be nearing an
end
Stocks cannot go up forever without a pullback.
Data shows this latest ramping of the stock market could be at an end, but not
for the March rally.
The march 2009 rally could extend out for
years. But pullbacks and consolidation periods are very necessary for the
health of the markets. A new
chart study indicates that stocks have run-up to fast to quickly and
that a pullback most likely is near- or at least a long consolidation period.
The counter to all of this is, everybody is looking
for a pullback so that those that were left behind in the rally can get in at a
lower level- but we all know that what we expect and get are most always two
different things... more on the
new chart study...
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Investors and traders back from vacation add to already
heavy March gains
Where will the enthusiasm drop off and fear step in
and drive stocks down. The Bear's of the world are getting into position
just waiting for the catalysts that begins the sell off.
But Tuesday wasn't that day. Shares of
corporate America jumped with the broader market posting near one percent gain.
GE and M&A help spurt stocks on.
Oil and
gold prices ramp up but end off the highs of
the session.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
U.S. stock market avoids downgrade with 3/4 percent gain Wednesday
A somewhat surprise rally take stocks up and avoids
a forecast downgrade. An oil inventory draw surprise sends oil prices
rallying taking energy companies along for the ride. shares on the
exchanges ended higher Wednesday interrupting a forecast downgrade.
The March rally seems to have been running out of
steam lately as some analysts have said the stock market is very ripe for a
pullback. But the last two sessions has put the rally back in the
spotlight while a growing number of analysts see a pullback looming.
Market Barometer model data is showing a degradation
in the metrics that determine forecast changes.
Data suggests that Its not
if there's going to be a pullback
but its
when will the pullback begin.
Data suggests we could enter a pullback at any time but as most on Wall Street
know, its probably not going to happen if everybody is expecting it, at least
that's the way it has worked in the past.
The Barometer forecast-bias is at negative, so any
additional negative ness most likely will cause a forecast change to caution.
That doesn't mean things will go bad. It means just what it says, be
cautious. Always watch the bug (upper left corner) for changes.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Barometer
models have been tipping towards the dark side
An iffy period seems to be in focus with traders.
Meaning, there are plenty of marketeers believing we could pullback soon.
Data from the Barometer models kind of suggest the
same thing. But another positive day might get those fears pushed aside,
for a time. Friday should be interesting session to see if we can pullout
another positive day. It would be real gratifying if we could get the
rally to takeoff like the futures showed us Thursday morning before retail sales
data quashed sentiment.
Sooner or later we will see a pullback, it will come
most likely with a lot of volatility. September-October timeframe is an
ideal spot for that to happen. The question is will the market make it to
then.
Always watch the
Bias and BLI they will move before the forecast does.
Thursday, August 13, 2009- UPDATED publication date on Monday, August 17, 2009
Market goes flat ahead of the Federal Reserve two-day FOMC board meeting
Midday Monday the U.S. stock market is flat--
just under the unchanged line. While Bernanke and the rest of the FOMC is
getting ready for Tuesdays and Wednesdays meeting, investors and traders are
content to keep stock prices steady.
The FOMC is expected to leave the
Fed funds target rate at .25 percent or below.
The market will be focusing on any language changes in the accompanying
statement. Good or bad, could drive the market for the short term.
Monday, August 10, 2009
New study shows caution could be around the corner- but
the forecast still indicates positive
Updated Barometer chart shows the mid August rally came in July.
You can always count on the market doing what is
unexpected. Data from the models indicate a break in the Barometer
pattern. This could mean a change is coming- a top and pullback could
occur.
The problem is when. The Barometer plot looks
like it could come sooner rather than later but it also could come during the
very volatile season in October.
Time will tell. Keep watch on the forecast for
changes.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Barometer models see major leg up in August
Unless something changes, model data continues to
see mid August as the next major leg up for the U.S. stock market.
The S&P 500 chart [diagonal line on chart]
shows a small pullback over the past couple weeks, excluding last weeks rally,
that could stand as consolidation. Since this bear market has been so deep
maybe this pullback can be chocked up as a correction.
After the projected new leg in August, we might
expect a real volatile pullback in the October time frame.
If that occurs, the
Barometer forecast outlook will be set to neutral to negative, so
always watch the forecast as changes can sometimes happen reputedly.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Broader stocks advanced .4 percent, tech added .3 as the Dow Jones ended
virtually unchanged
Hard to say if Alcoa earnings outlook made a
difference in how investors see the recovery and corporate profits as the Dow,
choppy all day, ends near unchanged while the broader market ended with gains.
Data from
the Market Barometer models show that a small breakout-- one way or the
other-- could be just days away. If stocks go positive in the next
couple days, the forecast will stay at positive. On the other hand, if we
see a couple days of negative performance from stocks, we could be looking at a
forecast downgrade to neutral. The Barometer Leading Indicator went
negative yesterday, so, the probability is greater that we are going to move
down at least for the short-term.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Consumer confidence costs investors 1 percent with hope of last minute rally
Stocks dropped sharply Tuesday, on the last trading
session of the second quarter, when Consumer Confidence report came in worse
than expected. With some shares down 1 to 2 percent, traders look for an
up tic in the last minutes of trade as window dressing strategy continues.
With a half-hour left in the session,
the broader
market was down 1.3 percent.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Market Barometer Forecast methodology indicates a concave recovery for the U.S.
stock market
Just released. Market Barometer has identified
what it has termed as a 'concave recovery' [theoretical premise] using Market
Barometer methodology.
Market Barometer Forecast concludes, from it's
forecast methodology, that the U.S. stock market is nearly at the midway point
of a concave recovery.
Data shows that the stock market has reached,
according to Market Barometer methodology, the first inflection point [point
where market turns from positive to neutral or negative] of the curve where the
market could go sideways or even down until the second inflection point.
See the study text and chart.
Market Barometer methodology adopted the term
concave recovery to
identify the particular pattern of the Barometer plot during a rally off
established lows. Since inception of the forecast trials, the methodology
had not dealt with this kind of transformation of markets to Barometer
methodology.
As this new territory is discovered by the models,
the data and any prediction or forecast produced needs to be proved-out in
continuing trials. It has taken seven plus years for the trials thus far,
although the data and structure looks near foolproof, we must get to the second
infection point in order to determine how valid it is.
As with any forecast, this is based on the
fundamentals of the market and that any event, goods or bad can alter
predictions. Always be prepared for the unknown.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
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