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U.S. Stock Market Crawls Back
To Near Unchanged After A Depressed Start
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Asian stock markets
posted mixed results Tuesday while European markets, several hours ahead of U.S.
markets, were showing negative sessions, as traders and investors get concerned
over China's price hike and economic slowdown.
U.S. stocks were set to
open lower amid pressure from global markets. Futures pointed to a modest
decline at the start of business Tuesday.
Barometer models were
set to upgrade the BLI, the short-term forecast, to positive Tuesday but markets
correcting halted the model action. Data does suggest that the
inching-along higher for U.S. stocks is still intact.
After being
significantly lower at the start of trade Tuesday, equities crawl back, almost
making it back to unchanged, but fell short. The major indexes recoup most
of the sessions early loss, to end just short off breakeven.
Another Positive Day For Wall
Street Lead By Tech (Apple) Shares
Monday, March 19, 2012
Stock rise Monday on the
heals of Apple's dividend and repurchase announcement.
Traders and investors
send stocks higher Monday as Wall Street gets ready for earnings season with
preannouncements just ahead.
Tech shares (NASDAQ)
ramp the market up with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ modestly higher, while the Dow
index ended slightly higher, posting flat results on the session.
There Is No Stopping This
Market; Stocks Continue To Rise- Can It Last?
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Stocks start out in
positive mode, turn mixed in the midmorning session. Economic data had
little effect over the strategy of the market makers as stocks continue to crawl
and inch higher with little pullbacks.
Jobless new claims --chart-- continue to show
an improving jobs market with first time claims of 351,000 last week, that's
down 14,000 from the previous week.
Producer prices increased nearly 1/2 percent in February
while the core index was up 0.2 percent. Core price is the CPI less
volatile food and energy.
Stocks in the U.S. keep
on moving higher. There is no stopping this market. This could be
the calm before the storm. Models continue, for now, to show a neutral
short-term forecast and a caution for the long-term.
Traders Ramp Stocks Higher
Tuesday But Stress Test Hit Some Banks In The After Hours Market
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
U.S. stocks get off to a
spiffy start Tuesday as the global community awaits the Fed FOMC monetary policy
announcement later this afternoon.
Stocks steady climb
higher Tuesday, ramp-up going into the close. Fed FOMC keeps funds target
rate unchanged, as expected, says to keep rates accommodative.
Fed releases stress test
of banks that show some failures; initial reaction, after hours, was quick
and harsh but as the details emerge traders are getting details of who failed
and who passed and the quick to announce bank buybacks.
Today's rally brought to
you by banks that could be the reason for a pullback tomorrow if traders and
investors are concerned.
The Fed
announced results of the latest bank stress tests which showed that
the majority of the largest U.S. bank holding companies (banks) would continue
to meet expectations for capital adequacy despite large simulated losses in an
adverse hypothetical economic scenario.
The Federal Reserve evaluates the capital planning processes and capital
adequacy of the largest bank holding companies. The exercise includes a
supervisory stress test to evaluate whether banks would have sufficient capital
in times of severe economic and financial stress.
The hypothetical economic scenario included peak unemployment rate of 13
percent; a 50 percent drop in equity prices; a 21 percent decline in
housing prices. Losses at the 19 banks were estimated to total $534
billion during the hypothetical stress test.
How all this plays out Wednesday is a guess at this point. Although
Asian markets are not having a problem driving stocks up midday Wednesday,
local.
European market, hours away from opening, will give a better idea of how the
U.S. will handle the news in the pre market.
Forecasts remain caution
for the long-term and neutral for the BLI short-term.
Related:
Fed releases rate statement and
stress test results
New Week, Same Old Market,
Fed On Deck For One Day Meeting- Rates To Remain Unchanged
Monday, March 12, 2012
U.S. stock market got
off to a slow flat start Monday as traders and investors decide strategy;
waiting on the Fed meeting is the next big thing.
Asia Pacific stocks
ended mixed while the European markets traded mixed most of the session, ending
mostly positive as European's await the Fed meeting.
Steady climb higher for
the Dow, S&P 500 lagging somewhat, with the NASDAQ well in negative territory
going into the close Monday.
The Dow Jones
industrials close with a slight gain Monday while the tech heavy NASDAQ ended
slightly lower; meanwhile, the S&P 500 ends virtually unchanged.
Very slow grind higher
for stocks. The Fed FOMC meeting tomorrow could recharge the market.
A one day meeting by the FOMC is expected to leave rates unchanged and expand on
bank stress test.
Related:
Fed FOMC meeting to leave rates
unchanged
ISDA Credit Event Occurred,
Auction To Resolve Outstanding CDS; U.S. Markets Little Changed
Friday, March 9, 2012
Like clockwork, stocks
grind higher Friday, nearly all daylong, on Greece deal and payroll report that
show a continuation of the U.S. economic recovery.
The nonfarm payroll jobs
report, released this morning, sent stock futures higher which translated into a
ramp-up for stocks, early on in the session.
227,000 new jobs were
added to the economy while the unemployment rate held steady at 8.3 percent.
Stocks sideways traded
for most of the session until the ISDA triggered a credit event on Greece debt.
The International Swaps
and Derivatives Association (ISDA) today resolved that a Greek credit event had
occurred. The EMEA committee stated that an auction on March 19, 2012
would be held with respect to the outstanding CDS transaction.
Asia Pacific markets
could react negatively Monday morning, Sunday evening in the U.S., while it is
too early to tell how the European markets will trend with respect to the news.
The U.S. acted somewhat
muted to the news but futures and the morning trading Monday will be influenced
by how Europe performs.
Related:
U.S. created 227,000 new jobs in
February
Unemployment rate held at 8.3
percent
Greece Credit Crisis Nearing
And End With The Vast Majority Of Bond Holders Accepting The Deal, Reportedly
Thursday, March 8, 2012
U.S. futures pointed to
the continuation of the global rally on Greece compliance with its debtors.
It all started Wednesday
after the Dow had dropped 200 plus points on Tuesday. The U.S. ramped-up
after Europe markets closed Wednesday, which was carried over to the Asian
markets, and then onto European markets on Thursday.
It appears from reports
that the Greece debt crisis is nearing closure Thursday with a vast majority of
bond holders accepting the Eurozone/ ECB orchestrated deal. Stocks around
the globe rally.
Tomorrows payroll jobs
report could be key in continuing the rally or pulling back, like some market
analysts believe. A strong jobs creation report could be the catalyst for
the rally. The jobless new claims report and ADP data indicate new created
jobs of something north of 200,000; unemployment rate off possibly 8.2
percent.
Related:
Jobs creation north of 200,000 is
expected Friday
New jobless claims rose slightly
last week- chart
U.S. Stock Market Rallies
After Down Day Tuesday As Greece Nears Debt Compliance While Markets Upbeat On
Data
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Stocks rallied
Wednesday, the day after the Dow dropped 200 points, as Greece again gets a
positive spotlight with it nearing agreement with its debtors.
Jobs data in focus by
the markets Wednesday as a good ADP report today, hope for a good jobless new
claims report tomorrow, and the big payroll report Friday, where markets are
expecting a jobs number north of 200,000.
Stocks recover some of
yesterdays losses with the Dow taking back 78 of the 200 plus points, S&P 500 up
0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ up 0.9 percent.
Related:
The short-term forecast continues at
neutral
The long-term forecast indicates
caution
Models continue to see a pullback
Jobless new claims data up on deck
for tomorrow
Payroll jobs creation and
unemployment rate up Friday
Global Growth Concerns And
The Greek Debt Swap Take Markets For A Ride Lower Tuesday
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Global markets turn down
in Unison Tuesday on concerns over economic growth; China Monday revised
their GDP lower.
Greek debt swap is
coming up this week and the fear is that measures in place wont help Greece from
a disorderly default.
Growing concerns over
Israel attacking Iran continues to become a focus, contributing to the global
jitters.
U.S. stocks dive Tuesday
as growing concerns over global GDP brings sellers out in droves. Greece
debt swap concerns are also on traders and investors radar screens. Dow
slides over 200 points.
Dow Jones And The S&P 500
Tried For The Unchanged Line, Meanwhile, The NASDAQ Ended Deep In Negative
Territory
Monday, March 5, 2012
China's revision to GDP
and factory orders spook traders, sending buyers to the sidelines Monday.
Buyers made a comeback,
tried to get the broader market back to the unchanged line, but selling pressure
was to great.
The NASDAQ ended well in
negative territory help along by heavyweight Apple, while the DJIA and the S&P
500 ended down but well off the lows of the session.
Stocks Meander In Mixed Mode
As Traders Look To Next Week To Get March Going
Friday, March 2, 2012
Little news or data to
move markets as traders and investors close February and look to the weekend for
rest and to start out a fresh Monday.
U.S. equity market
opened Friday slightly off with Europe markets mostly positive and Asia Pacific
markets posting positive end to their Fridays session.
Stocks held close to the
unchanged-line, drifting as markets ready themselves for more Europe news with
Greece deadline approaching and earnings preannouncements on deck.
U.S. equity market fell
short, closing with a minor loss Friday, as traders wrap up a week that
saw window dressing for February, a start to a new month and preparations for
Greece debt deadline coming up later in the month.
Related:
The short-term forecast remains at
neutral
The long-term forecast continues at
caution
Models continue to see a pullback
soon to arrive
Durable Goods Took Stocks
Into Negative Territory, But Consumer Confidence Revives Buyers, Taking Stocks
For A Gain
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Durable goods orders
disappoint markets Tuesday in the U.S. and Europe, sending European markets
lower and U.S. futures to indicate a flat open.
Stocks open in negative
territory Tuesday but was short-lived as the Consumer Confidence report sent
stock into positive territory.
Gas and oil prices are
becoming more of a focus for markets which could have an effect over the stock
market as higher prices start to be troublesome for the economic recovery.
U.S. Equities Continue To
Grind Higher Ending Virtually Unchanged Monday
Monday, February 27, 2012
Monday got off to a
negative start but mid session saw buyers come back to drive stocks higher into
positive territory.
Near the close the Dow
backed away from 13,000 to end flat while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended slightly
higher.
Short Slow Week For Equities
But Oil Prices Surge As Forecast Is Downgraded
Friday, February 24, 2012
Asia Pacific and
European stock markets mostly positive Friday leading the U.S. to a neutral
open.
U.S. gets off to a
positive start Friday on earnings and less worry. Asia Pacific stocks end
mixed while European stocks posted mostly positive results Friday.
Yesterday afternoon
Barometer model-run changed the BLI- short term forecast- to neutral from
positive on support level violation. The S&P 500 index wasn't able to hold
above 1365, a rolling support level that the model indicated as important.
Split market Friday with
the Dow closing slightly lower, the broader market up slightly, and tech up
nearly 1/4 percent. The week saw a Monday holiday and a very slow four
days but able to eke out a small gain on all major indices.
U.S. Equity Market Held Onto
Gains Thursday But The Short Term Forecast (BLI) Was Downgraded
Thursday, February 23, 2012
With the S&P 500 close
to a breakdown, stocks look to rebound from Wednesdays selling. Futures
point to a neutral to positive open ahead of the unemployment new claims report.
The Government reported
new unemployment claims -chart- was unchanged
from the previous week. Futures trend lower indicating a neutral to mixed
open.
According to model data, the S&P 500 must stay above 1365
Thursday in order to avoid a downgrade which would indicate a good
chance of a market pullback if that level were to be breached.
Stocks open down as
traders and analysts feel that the market is ready for a pullback. If the
S&P 500 stays below 1365, for a substantial time intra session, Market Barometer
models would agree.
The U.S. major indices
report gains Thursday while the afternoon
model run downgraded the BLI short term forecast to
neutral from positive. The S&P 500 held below key model support (S&P
500 1365) that indicates a growing chance that the market is running out of
steam, that a pullback/ correction could be within a few sessions of moving
lower.
Greece, Oil & Gas, Israel &
Iran, And S&P 500 1360 Take Center Stage
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Global markets mixed
Wednesday on the Greece news. Greek deal approved but now the worry is
whether Greece can execute the steps necessary to actually get the money by its
March deadline.
Futures for the U.S.
showed flat start with Asia Pacific markets posting mixed results and Europe
markets all showing red mid session Wednesday.
Stocks meander Wednesday
as the market appears to be looking for direction. The Dow and S&P 500
ended down slightly while the NASDAQ sank 1/2 percent.
Models this evening will be spinning as the S&P 500 broke below 1360, a
Barometer support level. We could see a downgrade this evening or Thursday
if the S&P 500 can't punch back through.
The BLI model-run indicates further weakness in the S&P 500 Thursday most likely
will cause a downgrade of the BLI. The BLI is the short-term
forecast that currently is positive (Wednesday) but could be changed to neutral
Thursday.
Any downgrade of the
current forecast could affect Asia Pacific markets as well as the European
markets. U.S. markets are trying to disconnect from the European markets
but European market probably will be unable to withstand the U.S. market
pullback without following suite.
Related:
More info on Thursdays outlook
Dow Sees 13,000, Backs Off
After A Greek Deal, Ahead Of New Threats- Oil & Gas
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
With Greece somewhat out
of the picture, stocks in all zones can expect to refocus on fundamentals.
A Greece deal was
finally agreed upon by all parties Monday night, with a deal reached that
satisfied most markets. Markets can now refocus on other points that are
now coming to light.
Oil and
gas prices are becoming a focus for traders as well as earnings. The
U.S. stock market has steadily risen giving way for most if not all market
moguls to annunciate a pullback or a correction.
A correction can come at
any time but Market Barometer models continue to indicate a (BLI) positive short
term with a cautionary long term outlook for the U.S. stock market.
Related:
Greece deal was hard to come by-
history
Short-term forecast (BLI) indicates
positive
U.S. Stock Market Rallied
Thursday On Jobless New claims and Housing Starts And Oh Yea, Greece
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Thursday looked like, at
best, a flat session but stocks ramped up, decoupling from Sister markets, to
rally over one-percent.
The on again off again
Greek bailout had little substance for trades, as the driver today appears to be
jobless new claims data [chart] as well as
housing starts. Collating sentiment and ramping the U.S. stock market
higher Thursday, as more and more investors trickle into the U.S. stock market.
U.S. Stock Buyers Were
Sidelined Wednesday As They Look For Market Direction
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Reports that China will
support, in some fashion, Europe's debt issues; Asian markets rally
Wednesday helping Europe and U.S. stock markets to positive starts.
Lots of news Wednesday to assimilate.
Traders and investors fade from the buy side of bidding shares up, with the Fed
notes out today and China news of helping out with the Eurozone debt crisis, as
well as the talking-heads in Europe that seem to make for a very confusing
session Wednesday. It's easier to sell at this point, with the momentum,
until Wall Street direction is established.
Global Equity Markets Rallied
Monday On Greece's Approval Of The Debt Deal Avoiding An Imminent Default
Monday, February 13, 2012
A reversal from last
weeks losses, the U.S. stock market starts with a rally following global markets
positive ness on Greece approval of debt relief measures.
A Greece deal, over the
weekend, sees markets around the World rally as Greece fades and markets prepare
for the next sovereign to become a focus.
The Dow Jones
Industrials closed up 0.6 percent, the NASDAQ ended up by nearly 1-percent, and
the S&P 500 posted a 0.7 percent gain.
Greece has had a long history of debt problems that's been
a focus for the U.S. markets since the summer months. Traders
are now ready to focus on the economy and U.S. companies and hopefully avoid any
more Euro Land turmoil.
U.S. Stock Market Pulled Back
While Greece Deal Got Rejected
Friday, February 10, 2012
Greece accepted deal
measures but appears not deep enough for the EU, as leaders reject the deal.
With probable overbought
conditions in the U.S. stock market, futures point to a pullback Friday.
Stocks fell Friday after
making nice gains to start the year. The Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P
500 fell 0.7 percent while the NASDAQ ended down 0.8 percent.
U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind
Higher With Economic Data Becoming More In Focus Replacing Greek Debt Drama
Thursday, February 9, 2012
A deal in Greece to
accept reforms changed U.S. futures little Thursday morning as markets await the
details.
Cautiously U.S. stocks
advance Thursday morning ahead of Greece Eurozone debt deal details.
European stock markets report positive heading to the European close.
The economy continues to
improve as unemployment new claims show improving conditions, albeit slow to
develop. As of last week, there were 358,000 new claims, down 15,000 from
the previous weeks report.
The broader market
hovers above the unchanged-line Thursday with tech NASDAQ shares continuing to
outperform the market. Details of the Greece debt fix is sketchy and
markets await more detailed information of the deal made in the Eurozone crisis.
U.S. stocks end in
positive territory Thursday as the slow grind higher continues with tech shares
leading.
Greece accepts austerity
measures but the deal to get the bailout money hinges on more approvals in the
EU. So the Euro Area debt crisis continues.
Traders are getting use
to the ups and downs of the crisis as all they really need to do is compare what
is going on over there to how that would play out in the U.S.
The same scenario here
would be gridlock. Just think how all that negotiations would get handled
here with the House divided and getting all the states to agree on anything.
Total gridlock.
Tech Stocks And Bank of
America Lead Equities Higher Wednesday While Cisco Could lead Markets Higher
Thursday
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Greece takes center
stage, again, as markets around the globe continue to react to nearly each EU
headline.
U.S. stocks opened flat,
trend higher, continuing to grind out gains early in Wednesdays session.
No major news out of
Europe saw the U.S. equity market end cautiously higher with the Dow Jones Index
up slightly, the S&P 500, broader market of stocks, moderately higher, and the
NASDAQ, continuing to outperforming, posting nearly 1/2 percent gain.
So much can happen
overnight that trying to predict the open is near impossible, for the most part.
Cisco has, in past times, been able to do that but Greece and Eurozone news
dominates focus.
With BofA's rally
Thursday and Cisco Systems Earnings beat, we could see a positive session
Thursday pending EU news and their markets which get a head start to our open.
Stocks Reverse Direction
Posting A Gain Tuesday On Hope That Greece Debt Talks Make Progress
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Greece maintains is
dominance over markets as the U.S. market got underway in negative territory
Tuesday. Asian markets ended mostly in the red with European equity
markets showing red as well.
Stocks make U-turn, head
back higher, crossing into positive territory, trending with the Euro. The
Fed may not be done with helping the economy as talk of QE3 is back on the table
for traders focus. Reports that Greece is close to resolving its debt
default issues is close to resolution.
Stocks Rest After Fridays
Jobs Unemployment Report As Greece Worries Are Back In Focus
Monday, February 6, 2012
Fridays jobs report was
good for a global rally, but Monday the focus is back on Europe and Greece debt
issues. U.S. stocks set for negative start while Europe markets continue
to degrade, Asia Pacific socks ended Monday mixed.
Stocks consolidate
Monday with the market indexes trailing just under the unchanged line. The
Dow Jones indexes closed down 0.1%, the NASDAQ down 0.1%, and the S&P 500 ended
virtually unchanged.
U.S. Equities Rallied On An
Unexpected Bullish Jobs Report, While The BLI Was Restored Back To Positive
Friday, February 3, 2012
The Government reported,
this morning before the open, that January saw 243,000 new jobs created, well
above estimates of around 170,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3
percent.
Futures immediately
ramped-up showing rally for the open. Stocks got into high gear rallying
all session long closing virtually at the highs.
The BLI- short term
forecast- was downgraded last evening on model data that indicated extra caution
for today's session. Since, models have reinstated the BLI back to
positive with the caveat of a probable watch for next week after the jobs data
loses focus and trades comeback into more of a fundamental line.
This by no means, means
that a pullback is expected. Stocks could continue positive or as easily
pullback. We'll have a better sense of what momentum is left by late
morning Monday.
Related:
The economy adds 243,000 new jobs
The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent
The Broader Market Of Stocks
End Flat While Tech Stocks Continue To Outperforming The Rest Of The Market
Thursday, February 2, 2012
U.S. unemployment new
claims data show slight decrease in initial claims. U.S. stocks are set to
open flat Thursday.
Stocks set for flat
possible mixed start as traders await Fridays highly anticipated payroll jobs
creation and unemployment rate report.
Mixed market after
initial claims and ahead of jobs payroll tomorrow. Tech advanced on
Thursday with the broader market flat and the Dow Jones Index slightly negative.
The late evening
Barometer model-run changed the short term forecast to
neutral from positive as model data suggest a chance that the
S&P 500 will not hold Barometer support Friday.
Manufacturing Data And
Eurozone Hope Sent A Very Cautious Market Higher Ahead Of Facebook Filing
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Futures pointed to
positive open Wednesday as markets get ready for Facebook filing. Global
markets ramp up continuing yesterdays European rally.
The S&P 500 index closed
yesterday (Tuesday) just above the 1308 Barometer support level. A close
at or lower would have triggered a downgrade of the BLI Short-term indicator to
neutral.
U.S. Equity Market Posted
Mixed Results Tuesday After A Mostly Negative Day On This Last Session Of
January
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Global markets set the
tone for the U.S. open Tuesday. Stocks in the U.S. get off to a positive
start on hope that Greece is making headway on Her debt crisis talks.
Almost a repeat of
yesterdays market except the tech index posted a small gain today. Stock
indexes report a nice profitable January with hope for a carryover to February.
Monday Turned Out Not To Be
So Bad For The Bulls With U.S. Stocks Making Their Way Back To Near Unchanged
Monday, January 30, 2012
Fitch Ratings gets
markets back to thinking Europe debt crisis as U.S. futures, Monday, set the
stage for a sell off for the equity market.
Equities sell off, in
early morning trade, with the Dow hitting triple digit loss. After the
10-oclock hour, stocks reverse direction with the major indexes heading
for the unchanged line. Stocks end the session in the red but well off the
low of the session.
Market Barometer models
continue to indicate a BLI (short term forecast) of positive. The long
term forecast remains at caution.
2.8 GDP Disappointed Markets
Sending U.S. Broader Market To A Flat End Friday As European Stocks Turn
Negative On The News
Friday,
January 27, 2012
Markets looked somewhat
healthy going towards the open Friday until GDP data sent global markets
negative and the U.S. futures lower.
GDP, for the fourth quarter 2011, came in at 2.8 percent,
lower than had been expected. Global markets immediately dived into
negative territory Friday, setting the U.S. up for a negative session and
possibly the catalyst for a correction pullback.
U.S. broader market of
stocks ended flat Friday after a disappointing GDP number. European
markets turned on the news, ending in negative territory. Asia Pacific
markets had already closed.
The U.S. broader market
ended the week flat with NASDAQ posting a small gain. The BLI, short term
forecast, continues to indicate positive.
A Day Of Rest Or Was Thursdays Negative End The Beginning Of A Pullback
Thursday,
January 26, 2012
Fed meeting concludes said to keep rates accommodative to late 2014
and
introduces tables and charts of projection
inspiring the global markets to rally Thursday.
U.S.
equity market rested Thursday, pulling back near 1/2 percent, after a very
starch upward start to the year. The S&P 500 traded out of the Summer Fall
trading range, now trading in the outer limits, as some believe the market is
ripe for at least a correction.
Friday and Mondays market could be the answer to whether the U.S. stock market
corrects or not. The BLI, a short term forecast indicator, continues to
indicate positive for equities. The long term forecast continues at
caution.
Unemployment new claims data, although
increased last week, shows the job market is getting better, albeit very very
slow. After a surge in claims, recent data [chart]
show a descending new claims number which will help in 2012 jobs creation.
Traders Alert- New High-End Mobile Display
Trader platforms
now link to the forecast page on the .com site, follow this link...
As always traders get the first look at the forecast change before the general
internet public. The .mobi site is no longer updated with forecast change-
chalkboard.
Market Barometer has a 'Market On Mobile' beta .mobi
site so that you can display pertinent information, like the
chalkboard, on your
mobile device. You can go directly to Market-Barometer.mobi site and get
the info you need without the hassle of a desktop or laptop.
On your mobile device, go to Market-Barometer.com
and click on the mobile icon on select pages, like the
chalkboard.
The beta .mobi site is still in the works but the
chalkboard will contain any pertinent forecast information.
High-end personal technology devises such as the
iPhone, iPad, Android, and trader platforms with internet connection can load up
the Forecast chalkboard to see the latest model strategy.
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