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April 2009 trading sessions saw the March rally continue with some minor setbacks

NASDAQ Tech stocks continue to outperform the rest of the market

Investors try to add to rally but find a mixed end Thursday

Tech stocks continue to leave the rest of the market behind, as the NASDAQ is up 8.9 percent y-t-d, while the Dow Industrials are down by 6.9 percent y-t-d, and S&P 500 off by 3.4 percent y-t-d.  Today the Government reported new unemployment claims decreased by 14,000 as new unemployment claims appear to be toping out Forecast chart still shows a positive market but any news can sway investors and markets can change direction with little notice.  Market forecast continues to show positives across the board.   Thursday, April 30, 2009

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Stocks ramp higher amid contracting GDP as Fed stays interest target at near zero

Rally is still on as investors ramp up shares Wednesday with the major indexes posting 2 percent gain.  This morning the Government said that the economy still is contracting with the GDP for the first quarter coming in at -6.1 percent.  The Fed's FOMC held the Fed funds rate [target] at near zero percent stating that there is evidence that the contraction rate of the economy is slowing.  Market Barometer Leading Indicator Channel chart indicates that the rally should continue.   Wednesday, April 29, 2009


Swine Flu headlines take global markets down over world economical recovery

U.S. stocks are headed for a lower close Monday as world markets closed negative over flu outbreak fear.  DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ showing improvement over the open but still closing lower on the day.  Equities close down Monday as fear grips investors and traders.  The averages posted 0.84 percent loss on the session.   Monday, April 27, 2009


Late day surge sees stocks rise 1 percent in the broader market

The S&P 500 rose 1 percent, the DJIA rose 0.9 percent, and the NASDAQ rose 0.4 percent.  The Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart has been refreshed with a good look at the Barometer-plot continuing to push higher above the boundaries [launch chart].  As long as the plot (yellow) continues above the boundaries (green - red) the stock market should continue to perform well.  When the plot moves in-between or below the boundaries is when we could see a correction or a harder fall.  Remember any news can trigger a surge as well as a plunge.  Forecasting is for the fundamentals- all things equal.   Thursday, April 23, 2009


Concerns send stocks down late session, as Leading Indicator got reinstated

The boarder market got off to a lower start only to reverse and rally into triple digits [the Dow] as investors overcame the uneasy feeling of the banking system and the economy.  In the last 30 minutes, marketeers got nervous and sold-out there early gains as the DJIA and S&P 500 lost near 1-percent while the tech index posted a small gain.  During the selling and prior to the close the model-run had enough data to change the Barometer Leading Indicator back to positive.  Even with the selling spree, the change stands as data suggest that the selling was a knee jerk reaction to news.  If there was something more serious going on it will carry over into Tomorrow session.   Wednesday, April 22, 2009


Bank stocks dumped as fear takes center stage once again

Investors sell off bank stocks as nationalization fear reenters the marketplace Monday.  Bank share price action takes the rest of the market down, as selling continued to the close, with the major averages posting 3 to 4 percent loss on the session.  Afternoon model-run set the Market Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) to neutral as data shows a correction to the rally may be at hand.  According to the data, we could see one more negative session with the current leg-up (rally) still being intact.  Data also indicates that we would have to have a very good session tomorrow in order to get the BLI back to positive and that most likely will not happen.  Therefore, we could be in for more downside and that really is what the BLI is tell us to expect.  M&A activity is a good sign that at least some think that we could see more on the upside.  Next few sessions should give us more clues for the short-term outlook.   Monday, April 20, 2009

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Is Google going to be a leader and move markets like Cisco and Intel use to

Friday will tell as Google reported better than expected earnings with share price up in the after hours session.  Unless there is some real bad news tomorrow, stocks should carry on and either move up or do a mini consolidation.  The Barometer forecast has been stuck on positive for a while and the data continues to look good for more upside move.  We added another chart, a closer look at the Leading Indicator Barometer chart.  We have had several requests to make the charts more readable and clearer but we elected not to because we have not protected [patented] the Barometer process, models, Forecast, and methodology yet- but plan to.  We decided to occasionally update a more detail look at the chart so that you can see a little more of how the Barometer Forecast works.   Thursday, April 16, 2009


Bulls pulled out another positive day, making it 6 out of 10

With the general consensus that the economy just might be near a bottom, got investors to bid shares higher in a late afternoon rally.  Banks were in early sell off but turned and accompanied the market higher to end in mixed fashion.  Headline consumer inflation data showed a decrease while the core reading (x- food and energy) was unchanged for March.  The Dow and S&P 500 ended higher by 1.3 percent, while the NASDAQ, buried all day, lifted to the unchanged line.   Wednesday, April 15, 2009


Stocks continue the push higher as investors gear-up for bank earnings

Goldman reports positive earnings taking bank stock even higher in after hours session.  Stocks comeback Monday from early losses with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ending in positive territory, Dow ends slightly negative but well off the low.  If you missed Thursdays alert to the new market study, you can go there now to see the study that is underway in light of the current rally.   Monday, April 13, 2009


Stocks back on track ending two days of losses

Barometer pre-close model-run changed the Market Barometer Forecast to positive.  Data shows that the Barometer-plot is leading the boundaries higher which indicates a Bull leg up [see Leading Indicator chart].  Whether this is the start of a Bull market or a Bear rally, is unknown at this time.  Several resistance line obstacles are ahead of the stock market that need to be tested before declaring this a Bull market.  New investors. Remember that this forecast is good for the fundamentals and that any bad news can derail the positive sentiment.   Wednesday, April 8, 2009


U.S. stocks pullback Monday from four-week long rally

After four straight positive sessions U.S. equities pulled back Monday as investors took profits.  Well off the lows of the session, stocks reversed direction and trended higher in afternoon trade as bank and Cisco Systems downgrades and IBM Sun Microsystems news was the catalyst for today's selling.  Post close Barometer model data saw today's stock market performance as encouraging.  An orderly appearance to trade today most likely will lead to a forecast upgrade this week, unless investors pull the plug on earning outlook, starting with Alcoa.   Monday, April 6, 2009 UPDATED


Investors pull out another positive day for equities

Investors make it 7 out of 10 positive days [major indexes] as Market Barometer model data is on the verge of making an upgrade to the forecast, calling this market firmly in the hands of Bulls.  The jobs report this morning saw unemployment rising as most had expected.  Next week earnings gets underway; if stocks can handle the earnings-outlook, we could see a forecast change to positive by midweek.  For the new investor reading this, as always, forecasts are for the fundamentals of the market and any bad news could set investors off in the wrong direction.  So even if the forecast is changed to positive, and even if the forecast-outlook doesn't suggest it, caution is always prudent in this day and age.  Always keep an eye on the 'bug' for changes as models can change the bug when events dictate.  An updated Leading Indicator chart shows the progress of this rally of the bottom as the models see it.  Subsequent charts can be found in the left navigation border area.   Friday, April 3, 2009


Rally still alive ahead of the all important nonfarm payroll

U.S. stocks added another 2 to 3 percent to the mega rally we have seen over the past four weeks.  We'll see if the economical data tomorrow will throw a kink in the works.  Investors prepare for the ultimate backbreaker nonfarm payroll data.  Just how many jobs have been lost in March and the ever upward-thrusting unemployment-rate will be released in the morning.  Who really knows what the market will do tomorrow when the data is released in the pre open.  Bulls will say whatever the job loss number is, is already baked into share prices.  The Market Barometer model data shows that 1 to 2 more positive session within the next couple of days will be required before an upgrade to the forecast.  If we see that happen, data suggest that we could see a surge in stocks, the next leg up, before a correction.   Thursday, April 2, 2009


Dale posted Mark Hulbert

Mark- hello!!!  You know the Bull is in time-out.  Of all the people you should know the stock market will go up up and a way.  Give it time.  These little bumps in the road are nothing.  Gee, if you got 20 30 years this market will be much higher.  Besides, theories don't work because there is no way of knowing what news will come out and how it will affect the markets.  The best you or anyone can do is play the fundamentals. 10:04p July 11, 2011


Stocks ramp higher amid contracting GDP as Fed stays interest target at near zero

Swine Flu headlines take global markets down over world economical recovery

Late day surge sees stocks rise 1 percent in the broader market

Concerns send stocks down late session, as Leading Indicator got reinstated

Bank stocks dumped as fear takes center stage once again

Is Google going to be a leader and move markets like Cisco and Intel use to

Bulls pulled out another positive day, making it 6 out of 10

Stocks continue the push higher as investors gear-up for bank earnings

Stocks back on track ending two days of losses

U.S. stocks pullback Monday from four-week long rally

Investors pull out another positive day for equities

Rally still alive ahead of the all important nonfarm payroll

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