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Rally is still on as investors ramp up shares
Wednesday with the
major indexes posting 2 percent gain.
This morning the Government said that the economy still is contracting with the
GDP for the first quarter coming in at -6.1
percent. The Fed's FOMC held the
Fed funds rate
[target] at near zero percent stating that there is evidence that the
contraction rate of the economy is slowing.
Market Barometer Leading Indicator Channel chart indicates that the
rally should continue.
Wednesday, April 29,
2009
U.S. stocks are headed for a lower close Monday as
world markets closed negative over flu outbreak fear.
DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ showing improvement
over the open but still closing lower on the day. Equities close down
Monday as fear grips investors and traders. The averages posted 0.84
percent loss on the session.
Monday, April 27,
2009
Late
day surge sees stocks rise 1 percent in the broader market
The S&P
500 rose 1 percent, the DJIA rose 0.9 percent, and the NASDAQ rose 0.4 percent.
The Market Barometer Leading
Indicator chart has been refreshed with a good look at the
Barometer-plot continuing to push higher above the boundaries [launch
chart]. As long as the plot (yellow) continues above the
boundaries (green - red) the stock market should continue to perform well.
When the plot moves in-between or below the boundaries is when we could see a
correction or a harder fall. Remember any news can trigger a surge as well
as a plunge. Forecasting is for the fundamentals- all things equal.
Thursday, April 23,
2009
Concerns send stocks down late session, as Leading Indicator got reinstated
The
boarder market got off to a lower start only to reverse and rally into triple
digits [the
Dow] as investors overcame the uneasy feeling of the banking system
and the economy. In the last 30 minutes, marketeers got nervous and
sold-out there early gains as the DJIA and
S&P 500
lost near 1-percent while the
tech index posted a small gain. During
the selling and prior to the close the model-run had enough data to change the
Barometer Leading Indicator back to positive. Even with the
selling spree, the change stands as data suggest that the selling was a knee
jerk reaction to news. If there was something more serious going on it
will carry over into Tomorrow session.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Bank stocks
dumped as fear takes center stage once again
Investors sell off bank stocks as nationalization
fear reenters the marketplace Monday. Bank share price action takes the
rest of the market down, as selling continued to the close, with
the major averages posting 3 to 4 percent loss on the
session. Afternoon model-run set the
Market Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) to neutral as data shows a
correction to the rally may be at hand. According to the data, we could
see one more negative session with the current leg-up (rally) still being
intact. Data also indicates that we would have to have a very good session
tomorrow in order to get the BLI back to positive and that most likely will not
happen. Therefore, we could be in for more downside and that really is
what the BLI is tell us to expect. M&A activity is a good sign that at
least some think that we could see more on the upside. Next few sessions
should give us more clues for the short-term outlook.
Monday, April 20, 2009
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Is Google going to be a leader and move markets like Cisco and Intel use to
Friday will tell as Google reported better than
expected earnings with share price up in the after hours session. Unless
there is some real bad news tomorrow, stocks should carry on and either move up
or do a mini consolidation. The Barometer forecast has been stuck on
positive for a while and the data continues to look good for more upside move.
We added another chart, a
closer look at the Leading Indicator Barometer chart.
We have had several requests to make the charts more readable and clearer but we
elected not to because we have not protected [patented] the Barometer
process, models, Forecast, and methodology yet- but plan to. We decided to
occasionally update a more detail look at the chart so that you can see a little
more of how the Barometer Forecast works.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Bulls
pulled out another positive day, making it 6 out of 10
With the general consensus that the economy just
might be near a bottom, got investors to bid shares higher in a late afternoon
rally. Banks were in early sell off but turned and accompanied the market
higher to end in mixed fashion.
Headline
consumer inflation data showed a decrease while the core reading (x-
food and energy) was unchanged for March. The
Dow
and S&P 500
ended higher by 1.3 percent, while the
NASDAQ,
buried all day, lifted to the unchanged line.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Stocks continue the push higher as investors gear-up for bank
earnings
Goldman
reports positive earnings taking bank stock even higher in after hours session.
Stocks comeback Monday from early losses with the
S&P 500
and NASDAQ
ending in positive territory,
Dow ends slightly negative but well off the
low. If you missed Thursdays alert to the
new market study, you can go there now to see
the study that is underway in light of the current rally.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Stocks back on track ending two days of losses
Barometer pre-close model-run changed the
Market Barometer Forecast to positive. Data shows that the
Barometer-plot is leading the boundaries higher which indicates a Bull leg up [see
Leading Indicator chart]. Whether this is the start of a Bull
market or a Bear rally, is unknown at this time. Several resistance line
obstacles are ahead of the stock market that need to be tested before declaring
this a Bull market. New investors. Remember that this forecast is good for
the fundamentals and that any bad news can derail the positive sentiment.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
U.S. stocks
pullback Monday from four-week long rally
After four straight positive sessions U.S.
equities pulled back Monday as investors took profits. Well off
the lows of the session, stocks reversed direction and trended higher in
afternoon trade as bank and Cisco Systems downgrades and IBM Sun Microsystems
news was the catalyst for today's selling. Post close Barometer model data
saw today's stock market performance as encouraging. An orderly appearance
to trade today most likely will lead to a
forecast upgrade this week, unless investors pull the plug on earning
outlook, starting with Alcoa.
Monday, April 6, 2009 UPDATED
Investors pull
out another positive day for equities
Investors make it 7 out of 10 positive days [major
indexes] as Market Barometer model data is on the verge of making an
upgrade to the forecast, calling this market firmly in the hands of Bulls.
The jobs report this morning saw unemployment rising as most had expected.
Next week earnings gets underway; if stocks can handle the earnings-outlook, we
could see a forecast change to positive by midweek. For the new investor
reading this, as always, forecasts are for the fundamentals of the market and
any bad news could set investors off in the wrong direction. So even if
the forecast is changed to positive, and even if the
forecast-outlook doesn't suggest it, caution is always prudent in
this day and age. Always keep an eye on the 'bug' for changes as models
can change the bug when events dictate. An updated
Leading Indicator chart shows the progress of
this rally of the bottom as the models see it. Subsequent charts can be
found in the left navigation border area.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Rally
still alive ahead of the all important nonfarm payroll
U.S.
stocks
added another 2 to 3 percent to the mega rally we have seen over the
past four weeks. We'll see if the economical data tomorrow will throw a
kink in the works. Investors prepare for the ultimate backbreaker
nonfarm payroll data. Just how many jobs
have been lost in March and the ever upward-thrusting
unemployment-rate will be released in the
morning. Who really knows what the market will do tomorrow when the data
is released in the pre open. Bulls will say whatever the job loss number
is, is already baked into share prices. The Market Barometer model data
shows that 1 to 2 more positive session within the next couple of days will be
required before an upgrade to the forecast. If we see that happen, data
suggest that we could see a surge in stocks, the next leg up, before a
correction.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Dale posted Mark Hulbert
Mark- hello!!! You know the Bull is in time-out. Of
all the people you should know the stock market will go up up and a way.
Give it time. These little bumps in the road are nothing. Gee, if
you got 20 30 years this market will be much higher. Besides, theories
don't work because there is no way of knowing what news will come out and how it
will affect the markets. The best you or anyone can do is play the
fundamentals. 10:04p
July 11, 2011
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Stocks ramp higher amid contracting GDP as Fed stays interest target at near
zero
Swine Flu headlines take global markets down over world economical recovery
Late
day surge sees stocks rise 1 percent in the broader market
Concerns send stocks down late session, as Leading Indicator got reinstated
Bank stocks
dumped as fear takes center stage once again
Is Google going to be a leader and move markets like Cisco and Intel use to
Bulls
pulled out another positive day, making it 6 out of 10
Stocks continue the push higher as investors gear-up for bank
earnings
Stocks back on track ending two days of losses
U.S. stocks
pullback Monday from four-week long rally
Investors pull
out another positive day for equities
Rally
still alive ahead of the all important nonfarm payroll
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